On Probability

[SillySapienne]

If you strip away all the fanciness, Monty Hall boils down to the fact that the host eliminates one of the wrong answers. His guess is not random.

So, what started out for you as a 1 in 3 guess becomes a 1 in 2 guess, if you decide to switch doors. If you do not switch doors, your guess still remains in its original 1 in 3 flavor, despite the host removing a door.

Hah, don't know if that makes it any clearer!

Hold up.

Perhaps it was explained to me wrong, just took the time to skim through most of the article.

So, if you were to pick a door with a goat behind it, would the host open that door, or would he open the other door with the goat behind it?

We've covered similar issues earlier (shameless self-promotion):
Simple Puzzles to Stump People
http://www.typologycentral.com/foru...-accident-grrr-frequentists-vs-bayesians.html

Will go to check them out.

 

[Udog]

Hold up.

Perhaps it was explained to me wrong, just took the time to skim through most of the article.

So, if you were to pick a door with a goat behind it, would the host open that door, or would he open the other door with the goat behind it?

The host doesn't touch the door you picked, so he would open the other door with a goat behind it.

.... assuming the goat wasn't the prize!

Edit: I screwed up the original stats, though. By switching, you increase the chance of winning to 2/3, not 1/2. D'oh!