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[Ni] A Challenge to Ni users

doppelganger

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I saw the Ukraine/Russian relationship coming to the place that it is at today... back in 2010, and the formation of ISIS

Something that will happen: Is Religious people calling the end times to happen during their generation till the human species becomes nonexistent

How did you come to foresee what would happen in Ukraine and the formation of ISIS?

And what will happen in Ukraine now? What will happen in Syria?
 

doppelganger

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There are layers. Patterns, all throughout history; lineages, systems, nations; processes; time. If you were to consider all of humanity one giant organism, where each individual were its systems (as in systems biology...),then you would see that our individual patterns are really microcosmic fragments of a whole. It takes a lot more than a few small intuitives to stop what they can't put their finger any better than those who might if they were paying attention; if they could discern the relationship between microscopic ecologies of mosses and the birthing of stars; but it lives in the atmosphere of their skin, burrowing holes through their hearts;if one finds themselves able to look away from the details, finding perspective in a much bigger picture at work, they'll be a lot less depressed for doing so. (As in any language, there usually are no direct translations; the entire meaning lost in the divide of schismatic cultures of heart and thought) Who knows.

Ni for an individual is that moment you know your dad is dying while watching him have the time of his life, and knowing it happened before the phone rings. It's knowing when someone misses you. It's knowing when they miss someone else. It's seeing the subtleties that poison the mind of a woman you don't know, like Amanita, felt in the air..vaguely backed up by a few indiscernible glances so low their closest friends don't even notice. Your stomach turns but there's nothing you can do about it; you don't know but you can feel it. You can't explain it, there's nothing rational about it. Until you find out why.

I once asked an INTJ what the accuracy rate is on his Ni predictions. His answer: a little better than 50%. Since ppl tend to overestimate their abilities and successes, it's fair to say his accuracy is actually less than that, maybe 50%--or worse.
 

doppelganger

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I predict that sometime within the next 15 years the United States will embark upon a major war, which it will win. Right now we perceive that the U.S. debt and such will down its global position; this is illusory. The U.S. will continue to rise, and will continue to dominate the globe for much of the next century.

How is that for a prediction?

Vague. Fifteen years is a wide window. And the US is already embarking on a war (with ISIS) that may very well become a major confrontation. Your forecast that the US will not succumb to its debt problems is interesting. Why do you think this?
 

doppelganger

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This thread is like going to a bunch of programmers and demanding they hack the NSA.

I strongly suspect programmers have a better chance of hacking the NSA than anyone here has to consistently predict the future.
 

PocketFullOf

literally your mother
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So what's going to happen in Syria?

I'm not really sure, I haven't been keeping up that well as of late. I got pretty frustrated after people kept telling me I was wrong about the Arab Spring and how its going to be such a great thing for the world even though I knew it wouldn't, or at least not across the board and I gave up on politics other than what I needed to do to study for the FSOT. But basically, I think that war between states is not that simple anymore and its going to be increasingly between groups that are not state affiliated which will make it a problem when these groups attack their perceived enemies and ruin countries that don't want the said group there in the first place. This is going to need to be resolved either by crushing these groups (such as ISIS) having them integrate into the state-based system by becoming a political party, or re-negotiating the order of the area in which they operate because if not:
shitstorm-flyer.jpg
 

doppelganger

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doppelganger

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People act like 911 is such an anomaly. I was only 11 at the time, and I know hindsight is 20/20 (or maybe more like 20/10 for N types) but after studying history and political science it mystifies me that no one could see this coming. The rise of the far right and the rise of Islamic extremism are not mutually exclusive, they are parallel and thrive on each other. And it's not like I'm talking out of my ass or I am trying to act smart while I'm really reading the answers off a teleprompter, I pretty much predicted trouble in Egypt and the formation of ISIS, and the way I came by it is not mysterious at all...if you are informed on the way certain things work and you have a premonition that something specific will happen, just think about it, try to rationalize it, because there is probably a good reason you feel that way, and most people are skilled enough in the art of rational logical thought to realize why they do.

On 911 there had already been an attack on the WTC a few years earlier by the same group. That group was still active and the WTC remained the most glaring symbol of Western economic might. So in a general sense, yes, it should not have come as a great surprise that AQ attacked the WTC again. However, it is one thing to think an attack may happen and another to foresee how and when it would occur. And no-one in US intelligence appeared to have put the pieces together.

What led you to think the events in Egypt would unfold the way they did? And what made you think ISIS would emerge?
 

PocketFullOf

literally your mother
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On 911 there had already been an attack on the WTC a few years earlier by the same group. That group was still active and the WTC remained the most glaring symbol of Western economic might. So in a general sense, yes, it should not have come as a great surprise that AQ attacked the WTC again. However, it is one thing to think an attack may happen and another to foresee how and when it would unfold. And no-one in US intelligence appeared to have put the pieces together.

Which is why I refuse to rule out the possibility that the govt. was content to let it happen and then spin it to their advantage as far foreign policy was concerned. I think given the political climate Internationallly speaking they should have realized they should have been doing more if they didn't want to get into it with AQ.
 

doppelganger

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Are you implying that if someone successfully predicted it happening, that it would stop it?

Are you suggesting it isn't the job of US intelligence to collect, analyze, and anticipate threats to the homeland? Or that there are no INTJs or INFJs working in US intelligence agencies?
 

boomslang

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Are you suggesting it isn't the job of US intelligence to collect, analyze, and anticipate threats to the homeland? Or that there are no INTJs or INFJs working in US intelligence agencies?

You first.
 

doppelganger

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I'm not really sure, I haven't been keeping up that well as of late. I got pretty frustrated after people kept telling me I was wrong about the Arab Spring and how its going to be such a great thing for the world even though I knew it wouldn't, or at least not across the board and I gave up on politics other than what I needed to do to study for the FSOT. But basically, I think that war between states is not that simple anymore and its going to be increasingly between groups that are not state affiliated which will make it a problem when these groups attack their perceived enemies and ruin countries that don't want the said group there in the first place. This is going to need to be resolved either by crushing these groups (such as ISIS) having them integrate into the state-based system by becoming a political party, or re-negotiating the order of the area in which they operate because if not:
shitstorm-flyer.jpg

Your statement that "war between states is not that simple anymore and its going to be increasingly between groups that are not state affiliated which will make it a problem when these groups attack their perceived enemies and ruin countries that don't want the said group there in the first place" has been true since at least 2001 when the US attacked AQ in Afghanistan. And was true during the war in Iraq. And is still true now that ISIS is in Syria. So it is an observation and straightforward extrapolation of the trend. The latter part of your statement lays out the options. That is analysis, not prognostication. So where is the Ni?
 

doppelganger

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Which is why I refuse to rule out the possibility that the govt. was content to let it happen and then spin it to their advantage as far foreign policy was concerned. I think given the political climate Internationallly speaking they should have realized they should have been doing more if they didn't want to get into it with AQ.

So you believe there may have been a US conspiracy to let 911 happen? What was gained by letting it happen? Wouldn't it have been better to stop the attack, expose the AQ plot, garner int'l sympathy and cooperation, and attack AQ in Afghanistan? Besides the death and damage, didn't the attack enhance the reputation of AQ and help it recruit members and grow in importance?
 

PocketFullOf

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Your statement that "war between states is not that simple anymore and its going to be increasingly between groups that are not state affiliated which will make it a problem when these groups attack their perceived enemies and ruin countries that don't want the said group there in the first place" has been true since at least 2001 when the US attacked AQ in Afghanistan. And was true during the war in Iraq. And is still true now that ISIS is in Syria. So it is an observation and straightforward extrapolation of the trend. The latter part of your statement lays out the options. That is analysis, not prognostication. So where is the Ni?

My prediction is that either 1 of those three things happen or there will be shitstorm (I don't want to say WWIII because its ridiculous and it will surely be an even that deserves to be analyzed as unique because it will be, every event is) that will fundamentally change the order and fortunes of individuals and groups around the world. I studied poli sci in school and there I have to rationalize why I believe what I do so I am used to making it sound like its coming from a place of observation and rational thought. At present I have no idea which of these four scenarios will occur but I have a feeling it will be groups like ISIS being incorporated into the already existing political structures that exist (not govts, but overarching structures) rather than a complete collapse. The way I rationalize this is that groups are made of individuals and individuals have interests and for them to have their interests met they have to be pragmatic which will lead to a change in direction of ISIS or a sharpening of purpose and also force them to eventually have to work within the larger system in which they exist or eventually die out, unless of course they succeed in taking over the world, which I don't think is likely.
 

doppelganger

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The real question is... who does?

INTJs and INFJs who boast of how "powerful" Ni is, who firmly believe in their insights even when evidence or arguments contradict them. And non-Ni users who believe Ni is "powerful" and imagine INTJs, in particular, are rational. They're not. They're rationalizers. They use Te to rationalize their Ni insights.
 

PocketFullOf

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So you believe there may have been a US conspiracy to let 911 happen? What was gained by letting it happen? Wouldn't it have been better to stop the attack, expose the AQ plot, garner int'l sympathy and cooperation, and attack AQ in Afghanistan? Besides the death and damage, didn't the attack enhance the reputation of AQ, helping it recruit members and grow in importance?
I'm not sure I call it a conspiracy, they actually made some mistakes in security that allowed it to happen and I'm not sure they meant this or if it was due to being apathetic. What was gained by letting it happen was that they were able to pursue as aggressive a foreign policy as they wanted, it was basically a blank check, this might not have been the case if they had thwarted the attack because they would have proven themselves able to do so and there might not have been such overwhelming support for such an immediate and extensive response. I'm not sure they foresaw all the consequences of this, and I'm sure they did not plan for this to happen so calling a conspiracy or a false flag attack would be a little much. I don't really know how to put into words exactly what I would consider it.
 

BlackDog

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Vague. Fifteen years is a wide window. And the US is already embarking on a war (with ISIS) that may very well become a major confrontation. Your forecast that the US will not succumb to its debt problems is interesting. Why do you think this?

The major power guaranteeing global trade cannot succumb to debt problems without the compromise of the whole system that it is guaranteeing. It is inconceivable outside massive environmental damage that the system which has expanded continuously since the 1700s will collapse. WWI tanked the British and transferred the role over to the U.S, but the U.S. is in no similar position to be tanked and replaced by a similar rival with sophisticated financial systems, raw industrial power, and a powerful navy and general security power. The British remained on top as long as they could pick winners and losers on the European continent; they didn't fall until their strategy of balancing failed when Germany overpowered the whole continent single-handedly. But a related former colony, a Britain to Britain, came to balance out Europe by favoring the weaker side. That was when Britain's position was finished.

We are and will be to Eurasia what Britain was to Europe. For the foreseeable future, no single power will be able to dominate Eurasia; the U.S. will work to balance things and indeed has already begun to do so. Our lack of regional rivals is our great strategic asset.
 

doppelganger

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My prediction is that either 1 of those three things happen or there will be shitstorm (I don't want to say WWIII because its ridiculous and it will surely be an even that deserves to be analyzed as unique because it will be, every event is) that will fundamentally change the order and fortunes of individuals and groups around the world. I studied poli sci in school and there I have to rationalize why I believe what I do so I am used to making it sound like its coming from a place of observation and rational thought. At present I have no idea which of these four scenarios will occur but I have a feeling it will be groups like ISIS being incorporated into the already existing political structures that exist (not govts, but overarching structures) rather than a complete collapse. The way I rationalize this is that groups are made of individuals and individuals have interests and for them to have their interests met they have to be pragmatic which will lead to a change in direction of ISIS or a sharpening of purpose and also force them to eventually have to work within the larger system in which they exist or eventually die out, unless of course they succeed in taking over the world, which I don't think is likely.

You laid out three options that I could make out and they are general enough to cover all the possibilities: ISIS loses, ISIS changes itself into a peaceful organization working within the system, or the system changes to give ISIS a role. A fourth possibility is ISIS wins. Maybe this is what you alluded to? What are the "overarching structures" ISIS would be integrated in to? Right now, ISIS is not allied with either the US or Russia, is despised by both Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two antagonists in the unofficial Islamic civil war, and its war on Assad and the US is confined to Syria and Iraq. So how will this conflict widen to a war that can escalate into a something like a WWIII?--ie, how will the bigger powers be drawn in?
 
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