2013 Oscars Predictions

[The Ü™]

Ang Lee won Best Director? I didn't see that coming.

And the only thing he didn't thank was the now bankrupt Rhythm and Hues Studios for creating the fake CG tiger. Clearly, the film was about the exploitation of visual effects, which is the true future of cinema (not that I'm complaining, just make a better-looking tiger next time).

 

[Totenkindly]

I loved how at the beginning he managed to legitimately offend some of the audience.

I read he started out okay and then just really bombed.

But what did they expect? I think Family Guy is way overrated, honestly; the humor comes off as mean-spirited sometimes, so it's no wonder he made some real missteps tonight.

 

[Thalassa]

Prediction: there will be terrorist prevention dudes walking around Universal City Station in the subway due to the Oscars.

Oh never mind, I didn't predict that, I actually saw it.

But why were they there? News at 11!

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

I thought it was kind of a mixed bag as a show.

On the bad side, it didn't seem to have any structure or flow. I'm also pretty sure Kristen Stewart was high. I know she was limping from an injury, but wow she was disoriented.

On the good side, I thought Seth MacFarlane was good, and I think that's probably the most humorless audience a performer can take on. He really held back and still got groans. The John Wilkes Booth joke was probably a bit out of line, but other than that I thought he tread very lightly. He has an obvious love for old Hollywood, and he sings and dances better than Billy Crystal, who they seem to drag out whenever they don't have a better idea.

I was pretty irritated by the very convenient timing when they cut the mic on Bill Westenhofer as he was about to address the crisis going on in the VFX industry. Yeah, he was being played off, but the timing of the actual audio cut-off was REALLY telling.

 

[ThatsWhatHeSaid]

My predictions for tongiht:

Best Picture: Argo
Best Director: Steven Spielberg for Lincoln
Best Actor: Daniel Day-Lewis for Lincoln
Best Actress: Jennifer Lawrence for Silver Linings Playbook
Best Supporting Actor: Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln
Best Supporting Actress: Anne Hathaway for Les Miserables
Best Original Screenplay: Mark Boal for Zero Dark Thirty
Best Adapted Screenplay: Tony Kushner for Lincoln
Best Animated Feature Film: Brave
Best Foreign Language Film: Amour
Cinematography: Cloudio Miranda for Life of Pi
Film Editing: Argo
Production Design: Anna Karenina
Costume Design: Anna Karenina
Best Makeup and Hairstyling: The Hobbit
Original Score: Life of Pi
Original Song: Adele, Paul Epworth - "Skyfall" for Skyfall
Best Sound Mixing: Les Misérables
Best Sound Editing: Zero Dark Thirty
Best Visual Effects: Life of Pi
Best Documentary Feature: Searching for Sugarman
Best Documentary Short: Inocente
Best Animated Short: Paperman
Best Live Action Short: Asad

Edit: holy shit

 

[The Ü™]

I read he started out okay and then just really bombed.

But what did they expect? I think Family Guy is way overrated, honestly; the humor comes off as mean-spirited sometimes, so it's no wonder he made some real missteps tonight.

Actually, he was barely in the show save for the opening. After the actual awards started, he may have appeared once or twice or when there was a commercial break, where he didn't make any jokes. That was the whole problem -- the show seemed uneven.

I loved when they showed Charlize Theron looking downright embarrassed when MacFarlane started singing about her boobs, and all the "Boos" from the audience seemed to come from being offended (which proves how stuck-up Hollywood is) rather than him making bad jokes.

Overall, though, the guy took many more risks with his jokes than let's say Billy Crystal. And he actually was funny unlike Jon Stewart.

And you have to admit that anything is better than James Franco and Anne Hathaway.

 

[Totenkindly]

I never watch the Oscars, so i can't say much at all. Just describing the mainstream coverage as the event unfolded. And sorry, but i find MacFarlane kind of boorish. Still, they hired him, and it sounds like he performed according to rep, so they got what they wanted.

 

[The Ü™]

The one other travesty was Brave winning for Best Animated Feature. It's clear that Pixar is still the Oscar darling, despite being the same thing as Disney now, because Wreck-It Ralph would've won otherwise. It was the stronger movie overall, despite falling apart in the second half when it became the Sarah Silverman show. Still, the first half was a work of genius.

 

[Totenkindly]

The one other travesty was Brave winning for Best Animated Feature. It's clear that Pixar is still the Oscar darling, despite being the same thing as Disney now, because Wreck-It Ralph would've won otherwise. It was the stronger movie overall, despite falling apart in the second half when it became the Sarah Silverman show. Still, the first half was a work of genius.

Yeah, I felt too like it lost its way for a little bit there in the second half, but I appreciated how unique it was. Art design was good. Another biggie -- they didn't glamorize Ralph. Normally these movies soften up good guys or make them good at too much. Ralph in essence remained a thug for the entire movie, kind of blue collar, kind of rough around the edges, he wasn't glamorized at all... but he was a good guy at heart and still managed to let that shine out despite a rough exterior that was sometimes annoying. Also a rather inspired and unexpected casting choice for him, in John C Reilly.

Brave looked really good. I'll say that -- great color pallete, great hair. (ha.) I liked the idea of doing something new, with a mother/daughter relationship, but I felt like much of it fell flat. I barely remember anything that happened, less than a year later, haven't felt much desire to re-watch it (except to watch Marduk the bear), and -- maybe a huge failing for Pixar -- the supporting cast was very cliche and forgettable. That's normally a Pixar strength, but they were simply used for one-shot jokes. Even the witch was not memorable, although the tag ending (which was still predictable) was cute. I consider it one of the weaker entries in the Pixar lineup, although I consider it a step up from the Cars line.

 

[The Ü™]

Cars was the shittiest Pixar movie since A Bug's Life. And I didn't even see Cars 2, though it has the distinction of being the only Pixar movie with a "Rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes. I would rank Brave above the two i saw, I think, but it is no Up. Though being an earlier computer animated movie, back when they were less complex and more cutesy, I give A Bug's Life a free pass.

I think it's safe to say that Pixar is out of ideas, especially since their next one is a sequel to Monsters, Inc. and now there's talk of Toy Story 4. For Christ sake, where is The Inceedibles sequel? That's the sequel that's needed most.

 

[Totenkindly]

Cars was the shittiest Pixar movie since A Bug's Life.

Well, I have a soft spot for A Bug's Life (although I don't consider it the best), but Cars I consider worse than much of the early DreamWorks stuff.

And I didn't even see Cars 2, though it has the distinction of being the only Pixar movie with a "Rotten" rating on Rotten Tomatoes.

I saw it on my 17-hour flight to Bangkok a ways back (I figured wth, I have the time, and it was free). It was okay. Better than Cars one, kind of, but that's not saying much.

I think it's safe to say that Pixar is out of ideas, especially since their next one is a sequel to Monsters, Inc. and now there's talk of Toy Story 4. For Christ sake, where is The Inceedibles sequel? That's the sequel that's needed most.

I'm fine with them not touching The Incredibles until they get an actual story worth telling. It would be hard to follow up on, to be honest... the first was perfect, and Syndrome was a great foil. Pl7us, it might all sound so same old if they redo the musical themes....

I'm a little surprised Pixar is doing all the reruns/sequels lately. Although I guess they want to use their properties to max impact.

... with all the overseas terrorist films lately, they should do the story of a little boy whose parents are killed by drone bombings, and how he tries to find his way back to sanity and emotional health.

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

Southern Kross, you kicked ass on your predictions. Good show!

 

[The Ü™]

The highlight of the night:

But the audience's reaction made it really funny.

It's also nice to know that Kirk didn't die by Picard's side in the new timeline.

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

But the audience's reaction made it really funny.

Yes. And MacFarlane had the perfect rejoinder to their ridiculous booing after the Mel Gibson joke:

"Oh, so you're on HIS side."

 

[Poindexter Arachnid]

My favorite host was David Letterman back in the 90s. His attacks were as hardcore as they come and he effortlessly pissed off the majority of Hollywood. I don't get why people said it was one of the worst hostings--his natural comedic timing made it work, IMO.

Now that's how you do it.

 

[The Ü™]

My favorite host was David Letterman back in the 90s. His attacks were as hardcore as they come and he effortlessly pissed off the majority of Hollywood. I don't get why people said it was one of the worst hostings--his natural comedic timing made it work, IMO.

Now that's how you do it.

Sadly, I never watched the Oscars in the early '90s.

 

[Poindexter Arachnid]

I take back what I said. Letterman wasn't all that, actually.
I do remember the "Eat. Drink. Man. Woman." joke from my youth and I still laugh about it to this day.

That was a good one. Comes in at around 7:05 in the above video.

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

The "Eat. Drink. Man. Woman." joke is an absolute classic.

That said, even with the disclaimer that Letterman is my all time favorite comedian, I think his hosting gig was pretty weird. It was odd of them to hire someone who would have open disdain for the Oscar bullshit, and it meant that his performance was kind of doomed from the start. That kind of stuff flies with Ricky Gervais and the Golden Globes, because when push comes to shove nobody gives a shit about the Golden Globes. But people give a shit about the Oscars, and it's a terrible decision to hire someone who is going to crap on their big night.

In the end it's not a show meant to entertain the viewer at the expense of the Academy; for better or for worse it's a celebration of the Academy. I mean, Seth MacFarlane tiptoed around it much more judiciously than Letterman did and he's still getting killed. They shouldn't have asked Letterman and he shouldn't have said yes. And any comedians with a sharpened knife should think twice about accepting the job.

 

[Southern Kross]

I thought it was kind of a mixed bag as a show.

Yeah, I agree. MacFarlane wasn't all that funny but still managed to entertain and even charm in places. I actually liked all the musical/dance numbers even though I usually find those pretty boring most years. I loved Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron's dance; it was just joyous to watch! Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Daniel Radcliff were also pretty fantastic.

I also loved the Sound of Music joke.

I loved when they showed Charlize Theron looking downright embarrassed when MacFarlane started singing about her boobs, and all the "Boos" from the audience seemed to come from being offended (which proves how stuck-up Hollywood is) rather than him making bad jokes.

That stuff was pre-recorded (as well as the cutaways to Naomi Watts and Jennifer Lawrence) and was meant to be part of the joke. It wasn't the classiest thing but it was still funny(ish).

My main issue with him was there weren't many belly laughs. And people are going on about how mean he was but I can remember much meaner jokes at the Oscars than he made. It was pretty tame for him.

Overall, though, the guy took many more risks with his jokes than let's say Billy Crystal. And he actually was funny unlike Jon Stewart.

Yeah, Crystal was mostly same-old-same-old. That stuff worked in the 90s but not now. I really like Stewart - he wasn't the funniest ever but he did a great job.

And you have to admit that anything is better than James Franco and Anne Hathaway.

Agreed. That was an all-time low. The writing was terrible and Franco made no effort whatsoever. Hathway was OTT but at least she tired to save the show.

Southern Kross, you kicked ass on your predictions. Good show!

Not really. 18/24 correct isn't the best score considering how much I follow the Award Season. I can't believe I got both screenplay winners wrong.

I was pleased I got 2 out of 3 Shorts right.

 

[EffEmDoubleyou]

Yeah, I agree. MacFarlane wasn't all that funny but still managed to entertain and even charm in places. I actually liked all the musical/dance numbers even though I usually find those pretty boring most years. I loved Channing Tatum and Charlize Theron's dance; it was just joyous to watch! Joseph Gordon-Levitt and Daniel Radcliff were also pretty fantastic.

My main issue with him was there weren't many belly laughs. And people are going on about how mean he was but I can remember much meaner jokes at the Oscars than he made. It was pretty tame for him.

I agree. While he wasn't the best host ever, I think a lot of the criticism MacFarlane is receiving is confirmation bias. Lots of people really hate him, and they had their knives out and ready, waiting for him to suck. There is not a lot of acknowledgement among his critics that he's a pretty good song and dance man and that he dialed it back on the offensive humor for the most part.

Not really. 18/24 correct isn't the best score considering how much I follow the Award Season. I can't believe I got both screenplay winners wrong.

Well, it was good enough to be equal to or better than 16 out of the 17 people in my Oscar pool, which is mostly people in the movie industry