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Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

Peter Deadpan

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Dec 14, 2016
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Society's metric for measuring success disgusts me. I feel unsuccessful because I've sacrificed the lifestyle I truly wish to live in favor of what is normative so that I can survive. Actually, I never had a chance to even experience that lifestyle. Can you sacrifice something if you were never allowed to have it to begin with? Fulfillment appears to reside on the horizon, no matter where I am.
 

Yuurei

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Society's metric for measuring success disgusts me. I feel unsuccessful because I've sacrificed the lifestyle I truly wish to live in favor of what is normative so that I can survive. Actually, I never had a chance to even experience that lifestyle. Can you sacrifice something if you were never allowed to have it to begin with? Fulfillment appears to reside on the horizon, no matter where I am.

Yes. Exactly this.
( I wish I had something to add but you nailed it.)
 

Virtual ghost

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Judging by the general vibe of this forum it sound as good chunk of Americans would probably be happier in some other country. Since they would fit there much better.


:eek:bservation:
 

highlander

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So what are the authors talking about with all of this luck business? As I read it, they're talking about the ultra-rich and the ultra-powerful, the ones at the very top. A certain amount of luck is needed to make it to positions at the very top--so much luck, in fact, that it effectively negates the role played by talent and hard work.

But to me that's not a surprise. There are plenty of examples of world leaders who are basically mediocrities with only one talent in life: The talent of being in the right place at the right time. It's a legitimate talent of sorts, but it requires a lot of luck if it's going to take you all the way to the top. A lot of random events have to fall your way.

I agree with this as I said for the most part. There are exceptions. Warren Buffet comes to mind. I guess it could be luck but that an amazing consistent long term track record of extraordinary luck.
 

Jaguar

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Judging by the general vibe of this forum it sound as good chunk of Americans would probably be happier in some other country. Since they would fit there much better.


I wouldn't mind having a home in Paris. At least when Macron came on TV, I wouldn't be shouting. ;)
 

Virtual ghost

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I wouldn't mind having a home in Paris. At least when Macron came on TV, I wouldn't be shouting. ;)


1. Actually I am often trying to picture you shouting around the house and throwing TV remote around when Donald in on TV. Your posts just give that vibe.

2. I wouldn't be so sure since Macron is European politician that runs European country, therefore he is enforcing various laws and policies which you have labeled as "extremist".


:shrug:



As for thread, talent is quite important but depression and mental illness are choking it by definition. Therefore every system that creates them in mass is doomed to choke the talent and eventually implode in it's own misery that will be all over the landscape. Expecting that luck will fix everything out of thin air is unrealistic.
 

Indigo Rodent

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The mere fact that disabilities exists proves that luck is extremely important.
 

ygolo

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There are aspects of luck a lot of people overlook.

Being born in a well developed nation being one of the biggest aspects. Being brought to one while still a child when their family immigrated is a very similar aspect of luck. One I am grateful for and enjoy.

Not having people be violent against you because of your success (like what happened in Tulsa, OK at what used to be called "Black Wall Street") is another aspect of luck. I have been rather lucky in this regard as well, at least so far. There have been some hate-crimes against myself and people I love. But things could definitely have been a lot worse.

Another big category of luck, is the opportunities of education and mentorship that come your way. Here again, I was extremely lucky. There were people who don't have the education to do basic arithmetic, or the ability to read or write in any language. These people were unlucky. Who knows what they could have accomplished (or could still accomplish).

There are also aspects of opportunity that fall in very idiosyncratic ways. I, like some others in this thread, have spotted and made use of money making opportunities that came my way. But I'm not certain, I'd have the success I'd have without those opportunities.

In addition, I had a rather stable family life. There were arguments, and lack of encouragement, maybe even a little active discouragement against ideas that I had (like wanting to sell lemonade as a kid). But all in all, my parents kept a roof over our heads, food on the table, clothes for me to wear and generally stayed together my whole time growing up. They encouraged my more studious pursuits, which eventually lead to what people may call a modicum success.

I was also born with a drive to always accomplish more, which I suppose is a form of luck. I was also lucky enough to be able to find the resources to do the next thing I wanted.

Overall, I have been very lucky in life, and I am grateful for that.

In addition, I do feel sorry for those who haven't had the privileges that I have had. I hope the previous sentences didn't come as bragging, because I can see that it could be interpreted that way. I have just been very lucky in many ways.

I worked hard and perhaps have some natural gifts. But there are many in my extended family who worked just as hard, and were perhaps more talented that just weren't given the same opportunities. They are still in another country-they do okay as well, but along the materialistic notions of success did not fair as well so far.

But I suppose what 'success' actually means is another debate. Personally, I think money/possessions are a horrible metric. But I find it is usually what people mean when they do any sort of comparison. The value of comparing 'successes' is perhaps another matter for debate.
 

xenaprincess

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There is luck and talent, yes, but more than that is the role of perseverance. If you don’t have perseverance, you are doomed.

If you have some talent, what sometimes happens is coasting along, pulling something out of your butt and skirting by. More valuable than anything is sticking with a trade or field after a setback. No amount of luck is going to help you to avoid every possible setback. As humans, we are bound to make mistakes. Making mistakes is really the best (most effective) way to learn anything. After you make a certain mistake, you’re bound not to make that mistake again. ;)

There’s a guy in my office who isn’t the sharpest tool in the shed. (I’m an architect). He would make dopey mistakes, and for a while, he infuriated my INTP boss with stupid comments to clients. My boss would rush to meetings fearing this guy, whom I’ll call J, might be alone with a client. Not a great thing, to have your boss being paranoid about what stupid thing you might say.

But one of Js great attributes is that he’s very determined. He might not be super talented. He’s definitely lucky, though, to be working at our office, and that our INTP boss is the type of guy who likes to troubleshoot a problem until a good solution is figured out. In this case, the problem was J.

My boss decided to get J away from clients and make him learn 3D programs. Now, J does all the 3D work. He patiently taught himself a bunch of programs and is actually quite good at them, partly because he doesn’t give up. J used to infuriate me with dumb mistakes or comments. I recently said to him that I admire him for how dogged he is. I think J is an ISFP. He’s actually quite an empathic dude. (Incidentally, he was in the army and served in Iraq. So he’s been thru boot camp!).

So anyway, all this is my vote for perseverance. You cannot get get by on luck or talent alone. One must have grit to be successful, and one must have failures in order to learn.
 
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