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Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure

Jaguar

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And stop being so sensitive fir God's sake!

Ah, projection. Expected.

I think you're a bit confused. I don't sit around all day complaining about how much I suffer in order to gain sympathy from others. If you want to play the victim, that's your choice. There's a whole world of people out there who don't want to play the victim and actually want to do something with their lives. If you have a problem with that, tough.
 

Jaguar

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[MENTION=195]Jaguar[/MENTION] aside (Im not stating he is necessarily an exception), thats the case of a lots of rich and "successful" people, and its the reason many of them uses the meritocracy word so much.

I've never heard any person use the word meritocracy, much less "so much." I live in the USA. Do you live in Brazil?
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Someone can be the world’s greatest actor but if they are never discovered-and by the right person-they’ll get nowhere.

Yep. Similarly, a lot of the art considered the greatest is initially unnoticed or reviewed poorly. The Velvet Underground sold hardly any albums when they were actually a functioning band, yet now they're regarded as one of the most influential and important bands of the late 60s. Part of that was due to the bad luck of having a conniving manager who didn't properly promote and market them. GZA's and RZA's first solo albums/singles flopped. John Carpenter's films were regarded as schlocky b-movies by reviewers upon release and often flopped at the theatres, only to be later regarded as classics by people who rented them on VHS. Plenty of painters starved their way through life, only for their work to be posthumously acclaimed.


While I agree to an extent with jag that drive and a "fire in the belly" are important to success, they're no guarantee. Plenty of people never give up and have that "fire" but simply pull shit cards every time at the blackjack table. On the flip of that, there's going to be some people who are terrible or average businesspeople at best, and simply stumble from one lucky achievement to the next
 

Yuurei

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[MENTION=195]Jaguar[/MENTION] aside (Im not stating he is necessarily an exception), thats the case of a lots of rich and "successful" people, and its the reason many of them uses the meritocracy word so much.
They want to be recognized, really and so much, some of them wants the top, and sometimes for efforts that are real, sometimes for efforts that dont truly exists (and its very hard to know the difference); But very few of them are in disposal to make the whole system really a meritocracy. And this small spark of desperate for recognition, without the proper conditions to it, ignites many bad things on this world with sometimes not them acknowledging that themselves. For some to be really rich, some has to be poor (a place without poor dont have any rich by definition), and some may die or suffer from poverty when there is enough inventions and conditions to prevent that. And from this desperate to recognition, comes conflict (not necessarily war), and from conflict, there is a suddenly leash of anger, and even things can get tense to the point of generating general-anxiety. And some people even get proud of a tension they actually supported.

Meritocracy isnt even my philosophy anymore, however, if it is to make people suffer from proverty, at least make it fair (supposing it is even possible to be fair) or make an effort to make it fair.

Sorry, but I needed to write and post these words at least one time in my life. My apologize if I make things more tense by this post. I would like to end saying that not all rich are guilty at all; Those who works effectively create/generate far less than they earn, on a very significant scale, are.

Acknowledgement huh? I would think the money and sense of accomplishment would be enough.:shrug:
It is astounding how those who are successful and supposedly powerful have such easily bruised egos. I don’t think anyone in this thread is trying to that “all successful people are justlucky” Yeah, some are. There are a lot of trust fund babies out there, there are also a lot of lazy people out there who completely lack ambition who seem to luck-out time and time again. But as much as I’ve been stomped on and spat on by the well-off, I have the awareness to know better than to try and lump every single rich person into one group or another. Every individual has their own story and fir the most part luck is not enough. If you lack the motivation to grasp every opportunity that comes your way, to the ability to see an opportunity when it comes along, you aren’t going to get anywhere. Ambition, drive and hard work are also integral to success.
TBH, I find myself constantly frustrated by the people ho know who lack the obstacles I have, who are given every opportunity to improve their proves yet take zero initiative to take any action. Their would be no limit t9 what I could accomplish if i had the opportunities they do.
I know this because I am a very ambitious and hard working person. I don’t have much in life, but everything I do have is because despite hearing nothing but “No” nearly every damned day of my life, I am still something if an opportunistic asshole. People like Jaguar might ‘shit on my life’ every damned day. They say that I must be lazy, and just ‘want hand outs’ that I deserve to have nothing.
Those are pretty awful accusations. I could sit here and argue with them, tell them my life story; all the times I worked my ass off, every opportunity I’ve grabbed and had taken away, but why?
First of all, I know that despite much they whine and cry at the suggestion that they may have had one iota of luck behind them, they sure as shit wont give me the same consideration. They clearly know my situation and aren’t going to hear it.
But most of all, I don’t care. I know my situation and no one else is going to tell me how it is and I don’t feel the need to prove shit to anyone else.
Why on Earth sone rich and successful person would care one bit about a single thing my poor nobody-ass has to say about them is completely beyond me.

On the topic of meritocracy; it’s quite backwards. Our society deems with by what one already has.

For example I live in the West Coast, our economy has been devastated b6 the tech business. My best friend works at RandD for FB. He describes his job as ‘ going to work in the morning. Loading wafers, pushing a few buttons. eating a free five-coarse lunch. Sitting around and waiting or even going home for six hours, returning in the evening, pushing a few more buttons, unloading wafers, getting a free five course dinner and going home” He makes over $70. an hour. Aside from enough free food that he never has to buy/cook his own, ( and everyone else at FB) get the best health care and a billion other discounts on luxuries; things no one needs, things that should be paid for by the rich to stimulate the economy. It it is not only utterly absurd but is exactly the opposite if how the economy works.
Meanwhile, I know many people who bust their asses working multiple jobs in the service industry. Shit-pay almost no benifits. No holidays off, they don’t even have a reliable schedule. Yet so many people think it’s just. “ Well the people in the service industry clearly don’t work as hard or are not as important because if they were they would make more.”

Yep. Similarly, a lot of the art considered the greatest is initially unnoticed or reviewed poorly. The Velvet Underground sold hardly any albums when they were actually a functioning band, yet now they're regarded as one of the most influential and important bands of the late 60s. Part of that was due to the bad luck of having a conniving manager who didn't properly promote and market them. GZA's and RZA's first solo albums/singles flopped. John Carpenter's films were regarded as schlocky b-movies by reviewers upon release and often flopped at the theatres, only to be later regarded as classics by people who rented them on VHS. Plenty of painters starved their way through life, only for their work to be posthumously acclaimed.


While I agree to an extent with jag that drive and a "fire in the belly" are important to success, they're no guarantee. Plenty of people never give up and have that "fire" but simply pull shit cards every time at the blackjack table. On the flip of that, there's going to be some people who are terrible or average businesspeople at best, and simply
stumble from one lucky achievement to the next

I absolutely agree. I am definitely one if those people with ‘ fire in the belly’ but has heard nothing but “No” my entire life. It’s funny how people who are so offended by the idea that they have been helped by just a bit of luck are the same who ar3 so easy to dissmiss me as ‘lazy’ because of ‘shit cards’. It goes both ways; judge not lest ye be judge ect.

( Wow. Lookit those typos. Sorry, my iPad is ld and senile and I am clearly too lazy to buy a new one.)
 

Jaguar

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While I agree to an extent with jag that drive and a "fire in the belly" are important to success, they're no guarantee. Plenty of people never give up and have that "fire" but simply pull shit cards every time at the blackjack table. On the flip of that, there's going to be some people who are terrible or average businesspeople at best, and simply stumble from one lucky achievement to the next


Define "lucky achievement." I've never been a fan of either word since they're so superficial and don't have much to do with making your vision a reality. It's kind of like the goofballs who think a startup is about sitting around doing nothing and getting paid large sums of money when in reality you're working 16-hour days and couldn't give a shit about making money. That's secondary. It's about the vision and where it's headed.

Yuu. said:
I am definitely one if those people with ‘ fire in the belly’ but has heard nothing but “No” my entire life.

"No" isn't accepted as an answer in business when you have a fire in your belly, so it might behoove you to start being honest with yourself.
 

noname3788

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It somehow reminds me of the phrase "It doesn't matter what you know, but who you know". I guess it is too simplified to look at singular reasons for someone's success or failure, and we may even debate what success actually is. Of course some people have it way easier due to their circumstances, they have more access to resources, know people that others won't ever get to know, have contacts at the right places, and that's basically the luck factor. On the other hand, those opportunities need to be used, which brings us to other factors, like ambition, drive, work ethics, personality etc. However, it seems that luck is quite influential here, and luck basically means being either born into a family which has enough contacts and resources to create opportunities, or simply being at the right place at the right time and making the best out of it. Yes, facebook started in a garage, but let's not forget that half of the population doesn't even have a garage. In the end, it is another "life's not fair" discussion, and it should be up to politics to create better opportunities for those who aren't as fortunate.
 

Jaguar

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It somehow reminds me of the phrase "It doesn't matter what you know, but who you know".

Who can you possibly "know" at age 14? Man, the excuses being made here . . . and that loser comment above me isn't exactly productive.
 

Julius_Van_Der_Beak

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So many poor motherfuckers in this thread, goddamn.

Get it together losers.

Hey, I make decent money these days, although I have periods of being on and off work.

But I also know what it's like to not make that money, and I think I was able to make the leap to making more was because I had opportunities a lot of other people don't have in addition to my own talents.

People act like it's all talent, and it's not.
 

highlander

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It somehow reminds me of the phrase "It doesn't matter what you know, but who you know". I guess it is too simplified to look at singular reasons for someone's success or failure, and we may even debate what success actually is. Of course some people have it way easier due to their circumstances, they have more access to resources, know people that others won't ever get to know, have contacts at the right places, and that's basically the luck factor. On the other hand, those opportunities need to be used, which brings us to other factors, like ambition, drive, work ethics, personality etc. However, it seems that luck is quite influential here, and luck basically means being either born into a family which has enough contacts and resources to create opportunities, or simply being at the right place at the right time and making the best out of it. Yes, facebook started in a garage, but let's not forget that half of the population doesn't even have a garage. In the end, it is another "life's not fair" discussion, and it should be up to politics to create better opportunities for those who aren't as fortunate.

I agree with much of this.

I have found that a lot of financially successful people in business and/or executives are driven, smart, hard working and have reasonable interpersonal skills. That's not just luck. Surgeons make money because they worked their assess off in college, medical school, residency and fellowships. They might be lucky because they had inborn motivation and intelligence but they used the talents they had.

That being said, my perception is a good deal of wealth is created through public offerings and equity deals - now there is a lot more luck involved there in my opinion.
 

Yuurei

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It somehow reminds me of the phrase "It doesn't matter what you know, but who you know". I guess it is too simplified to look at singular reasons for someone's success or failure, and we may even debate what success actually is. Of course some people have it way easier due to their circumstances, they have more access to resources, know people that others won't ever get to know, have contacts at the right places, and that's basically the luck factor. On the other hand, those opportunities need to be used, which brings us to other factors, like ambition, drive, work ethics, personality etc. However, it seems that luck is quite influential here, and luck basically means being either born into a family which has enough contacts and resources to create opportunities, or simply being at the right place at the right time and making the best out of it. Yes, facebook started in a garage, but let's not forget that half of the population doesn't even have a garage. In the end, it is another "life's not fair" discussion, and it should be up to politics to create better opportunities for those who aren't as fortunate.

The part about “not everyone has a garage” is so very true. I actually used to have my own business doing pottery out of my Grandparents garage. I had to give it up when I moved out because I was renting. No Landlord would allow me to have a kiln on the property and no way in hell they’d allow me to use clay inside.
I was able to make a few things at the local clay studio but 1) wasn’t allowed to sell the things I made there 2) would have been a net loss because of the costs of the class ( required to gain access to the workshop)
The instructor was such an asshole. I couldn’t use the clay wheel so I used molds ( just for the base, I made everything around it unique) and that instructor would get angry at me and lecture about using molds and said I wasn’t ‘ a real artist’ because I lacked the enormous home-studio he had.

Trying to do any sort if craft these days is really fir the rich due the expensive equipment and space required.

Oh, and the last social I had even admitted that she could not get me a job because anymore “ It’s ALL about who know.”

I agree with much of this.

I have found that a lot of financially successful people in business and/or executives are driven, smart, hard working and have reasonable interpersonal skills. That's not just luck. Surgeons make money because they worked their assess off in college, medical school, residency and fellowships. They might be lucky because they had inborn motivation and intelligence but they used the talents they had.

That being said, my perception is a good deal of wealth is created through public offerings and equity deals - now there is a lot more luck involved there in my opinion.

I am also all of those things. I was also born with a very rare debilitating illness-which no one believed exists, so in school they just said I was lazy and had a bad attitude ( I was just sick all the time) so I was tossed in the literal corner of the room and ignored.
I was also born to a very unhealthy family with a Grandmother who has some kind of Munchousen disorder. I was ambitious, I wanted to do everything but she said I was incapable and refused to teach me anything. She had me on disability in HS, before I had a chance to try anything myself. If she’d had her way, I would have never left her house. Yet I did and immediately attained my dream life. If I were not ambitious and hard working I’d never have achieved any of that. I’d still be living under her crazy thumb.
 

Edgar

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So You're Smart, but You're Not Rich? This Eye-Opening New Scientific Study Tells You Why
Chris Matyszczyk

Don't you look at rich people and find too many of them, well, dull?

Don't you listen to rich people and think: "What have they got that I haven't? Other than money?" In fact, doesn't it astonish you a little that you know so much, see so much, and can do so much, yet you really don't have much money at all? A new study offers you a reason for your lack of wealth.

It's one that's going to hurt. The study, entitled "Talent vs Luck: The Role of Randomness in Success and Failure," looked at people over a 40-year period. Alessandro Pluchino of the University of Catania in Italy and his colleagues created a computer model of talent. I can't imagine that was easy or, to every mind, entirely satisfying.

After all, one person's idea of talent is another person's idea of Simon Cowell. Still, Pluchino and friends mapped such apparent basics as intelligence, skill, and ability in various fields. They then looked at people over a 40-year period, discerned what sort of things had happened to them, and compared that with how wealthy they had become.

They discovered that the conventional distribution of wealth - 20 percent of humanity enjoys 80 percent of the wealth - held true. But then they offered painful words. They still hurt, even though we know they're true: "The maximum success never coincides with the maximum talent, and vice-versa."

Never.

It's galling, isn't it, to look at some of the relatively talentless quarterwits who bathe in untold piles of lucre? "So what is it that makes the difference?" I hear you pant, with an agonious grimace. Are you ready for this? "Our simulation clearly shows that such a factor is just pure luck," say the researchers. The researchers actually looked at different events that had happened in people's lives and ranked them according to how lucky or unlucky these events were.

"It is evident that the most successful individuals are also the luckiest ones. And the less successful individuals are also the unluckiest ones," they said. The danger here is that such a conclusion offers a blessed excuse to many who have chosen not to use their talents in ways that might have brought them fortunes. But there are those, too, who actively don't seek to be wealthy, but prefer a life that makes them, well, happier.

The scientists, though, offer some rude awakenings to those who prefer to imagine that the wealthy have some special talent. "If it is true that some degree of talent is necessary to be successful in life, almost never the most talented people reach the highest peaks of success, being overtaken by mediocre but sensibly luckier individuals," they say.

This leads them to suggest that their research "sheds new light on the effectiveness of assessing merit on the basis of the reached level of success and underlines the risks of distributing excessive honors or resources to people who, at the end of the day, could have been simply luckier than others." I admit - perhaps you will too - that when I look at the likes of, say, Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg or, well, other prominent types who enjoy unseemly wealth, I wonder just how talented they really are.

Indeed, I've worked over the years with one or two colossally wealthy types and come away, in more than one case, thinking, in the words of the great Los Lobos: "Is this all there is?" Perhaps, if this study is to be believed, the wealthy sorts simply couldn't believe their luck and managed to be level-headed enough to capitalize on it and intelligent enough to realize just how much power it gave them.

On the other hand, I meet so many wonderful, talented, fascinating people who never made much money at all. In the end, my test is very simple: "With whom would I rather have dinner? With whom would there be glorious laughter?"

I will leave you, though, with the researchers' words, ones that may say so much about our current world: "Our results are a warning against the risks of what we call the 'naive meritocracy' which, underestimating the role of randomness among the determinants of success, often fail to give honors and rewards to the most competent people."

They're talking about you, aren't they?

I admit that I can't be arsed to read that whole damn study, but I'm curious what the researchers used for their definition of talent. Say for example you can be a singer with a limited range but you sing pop songs that people like so you make more money than a singer with an amazing range who sings obscure operas that nobody gives a shit about. So who is more talented? Is it the singer who successfully entertains the widest audience, or is it the singer successfully hits all the notes in 6 octaves? They are both talented in their own ways, but one's talent is more conducive to financial success - it is the singer who entertains the widest audience.

Anyway all that aside it is never just one thing that predicts a person's success. It was always a combination of factors. Talent plays a factor, life circumstances play a factor, social skills play a factor, luck plays a factor. And thousand of other things in between. Any study that claims to boil down a complex thing such as success across various fields into ONE SIMPLE TRICK THAT RICH PEOPLE DO NOT WANT YOU TO KNOW is horseshit anyway.
 

Tennessee Jed

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I'm not sure there's anything really new or eye-opening in the study mentioned in the article. I skimmed the first couple pages of the original study (it's linked in the article), and the authors say repeatedly that talented, hard-working people will usually get ahead:

"... in highly competitive arenas or ’winner-takes-all’ markets, like those where we live and work today, people performing well are almost always extremely talented and hard-working."

[...]

"It is true that, as one could expect, talented people are more likely to become rich, famous or important during their life with respect to poorly equipped ones."


So what are the authors talking about with all of this luck business? As I read it, they're talking about the ultra-rich and the ultra-powerful, the ones at the very top. A certain amount of luck is needed to make it to positions at the very top--so much luck, in fact, that it effectively negates the role played by talent and hard work.

But to me that's not a surprise. There are plenty of examples of world leaders who are basically mediocrities with only one talent in life: The talent of being in the right place at the right time. It's a legitimate talent of sorts, but it requires a lot of luck if it's going to take you all the way to the top. A lot of random events have to fall your way.

There are also plenty of corporate heads who just marked time and stuck to an easy formula while they got bumped to the top just by virtue of seniority. They were lucky in that they were never really put to the test by some crisis and shown up for the mediocrities that they are.

But I've never been one to fuss about the fact that mediocrities can and often do get ahead. That's just one of those little unfair aspects of life, like mediocrities who inherit piles of riches or fame as a result of family ties. Money and power frequently end up in the hands of people who didn't really earn it and don't really deserve it.

Again, I'm not sure there's anything really new or eye-opening in this study. The authors don't claim to have discovered any big new concept. It's more about coming up with a specific set of metrics for quantifying and measuring the role of luck in individual cases of extreme wealth or power.

But for the main bulk of humanity, I don't think that there are any big lessons to be taken away from the study. For most of humanity, the normal laws still apply: Talent and hard work will still take you a lot further in life than the absence of those things.
 

SurrealisticSlumbers

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Guys, I think the study is referring to the very wealthy. Doctors, attorneys, etc. are what I'd call upper-middle-class. They're wealthy compared to most, to be sure, but the article speaks of those who became ultra-wealthy through a luck of the draw scenario - knowing the right investor, or having the right contacts to drive up the profitability of one's business. Seems that many of us have tried to do what we could with the given circumstances to improve our odds of success - which we all define differently - whether through education, hard work, and/or entrepreneurship (I did this as a kid... although I got scolded for selling things door to door to my neighbors!) There sadly isn't a formula to becoming one of the lucky ones. As others have said, it boils down to social circles and family connections for most of us.

Still, we can't just wallow in despair. I'm solution-oriented. Even for those of us who are too squeamish to become the next Ben Carson or aren't an autistic wunderkind like Elon Musk can achieve something resembling prosperity. Women, in particular, should be encouraged to go into traditionally male-dominated trades like locksmithing, electrical / HVAC, and plumbing, since those pay much better than traditionally female-dominated trades like cosmetology. Not everyone has to go to college. If I had children, I would inform them that it's their choice to do so if that's their dream, but I also wouldn't lie to his or her face and say that it'll give them any sort of leg-up in the workforce.
 

SearchingforPeace

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I know a young man, born to drugged out parents, raised by grandparents, self-taught computers, and makes $75k a month at 26. Of course, he has already had serious problems with being too naive on some things, but still, $75k per month, without college, without connections, without anything but his own talent and drive.

He is very lucky, though, because he almost lost it all and he got a huge assist from a very rich customer who hired very good lawyers to save him. He probably would have killed himself otherwise.

I know a 28 year old woman that has used her talents (looks, willingness to have sex with old guys, and savvy) to manipulate people to a point where she is a millionaire. Hooking the right oligarch is luck or talent, I guess....

I went to college with a younger son of a prominent family. He was a lightweight intelligence wise, at best, with an entourage of people hanging around him. He didn't work hard, wasn't very smart, didn't have a lot of "talent". He is a US Senator today.....

I also know brilliant hardworking diligent creative people who have repeatedly failed in their quest for millions.

Hard work, drive, conscientiousness, vision, e.t.c may result in success.....or not.

Also, some people are unwilling to be so ruthless and unethical to exploit every opportunity, due to moral qualms and such. Unwillingness to lie, cheat, and steal may result in lower income.

A lot of talented people may follow the path of Walter White to where he was at the beginning of Breaking Bad.... a brilliant guy whose own choices prevented him from being a billionaire. When he "broke bad", he was able to quickly become the baddest of the bad, and very wealthy.

And it doesn't have to be illegal.

About a decade ago, I figured out something that could have given me a 7 figure windfall. It was new, brilliant, and creative. And entirely legal. The only problem was: if I did it, copycats could follow my path and illegally profit. It would have been a huge exploit that really could have caused tremendous damage, as in catastrophic....

So, my choice was to make a huge profit legally, but open the door to huge problems.... or accept a much smaller profit and not open the door.

I picked door #2 and don't regret it. A whole lot of people would have picked door #1, but none of them saw door #1, so.....

I had an acquaintance, who I knew at church, where he was in the lay leadership. He had invested in his brother's company. He later told me he found out his brother was bid-rigging, which is very illegal. I told him that he maybe should distance himself from the company. He responded, "Hear no evil, see no evil"......

I guess he would have opened door #1.

Most very wealthy people I have known are very willing to open door #1, and don't care about the consequences.
 

Cellmold

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I think it is also an unappreciated point that the globalisation effect and connection of the internet (as it has grown and become more efficient and widespread) alongside a much larger world population than has ever existed, at least as far as we know, can create unique problems of competition and over-saturated markets.

In many fields and areas of work, you're no longer competing within your bubble and sphere of influence, you now have to compete with people from across the world. This also means that previously hands-on positions become subject to increasingly complicated and rigorous demands of ability and skill.
To use an example from my direct experience, when my dad first left school with no qualifications in the late 60's he told me that he loved rock climbing since his uncle had introduced him to it. There were also a couple of famous climbers from the West-Midlands (England) who he admired. Both these men were plumbers by trade and my dad reasoned that if this was good for them it was good enough for him too.

As he told me (his words) "I simply walked into a local plumbing business and asked about being trained up and..well...they did". When I recently (this last year in fact) went to a local college as part of my apprenticeship in becoming a Veterinary Care Assistant, my transport was currently unavailable so he said he would drive me in.

When we got there I was sorting out some work for my class and in the meantime, he wandered off to explore the campus. He found the area where the trade-teachers were and started a conversation with a tutor who, it turned out, taught plumbing skills. As he told me later, the man had explained to him that there were very few people now willing to go into trades since they were more traditionally favoured by those from a working-class background and the modern educational requirements were actually prohibitive to those who were most likely to go into that area in the first place.
Now I'm not saying that this means such requirements should be removed, nobody desires a plumber with poor skills and knowledge, however, the abstract educational aspects had overtaken the practical learning-on-the-job skills. A controlled environment cannot account for every eventuality like real experience in context can. There is also the matter of changing desires and aspirations.

People are now born into an environment which is akin to bombardment by 'aspirational porn'. Constantly shown programmes and images of other people's success and (framed) material happiness. While the best response would be to become more resilient to resentment and resist the urge to give such 'advertising' the attention it demands, it is not the same as the blissful ignorance of more recent decades where the influence was much less pronounced and invasive.

And the problem is that I would wager only a smallish percentage of the population make these efforts to resist. Most of it is unconscious and retained without realisation. And it is the majority who often influence the general market unless individuals within the minority are exceptionally successful themselves, and that would be a minority of a minority.

To follow on from this, years before I had applied for a minimum-wage job at a retail outlet (a job which I got and retained for some years). When I showed my dad the requirements on the application, a 40+ page monstrosity, he was dumbfounded as to how anyone ever got a job, especially since the requirements were for a higher level of education that he had attained from secondary when he left.
But I pointed out that this was now the standard and showed him several from other retail outlets in the county.

And I was diligent at that job, I got up early and always arrived on time. I took extra hours wherever I could and was praised for being hard-working etc... But what I very quickly found out was that promotion and advancement were not forthcoming. The people who were in the better-paid positions found that there was nothing for them to move onto and so there was nothing for us to move onto at the bottom level.

However, this job did have a perk which is that it was one of the last retail companies who still paid extra for weekend work to lower-level employees. I used to work every Saturday (due to it being one of our biggest delivery days and myself being trusted to get the job done in a decent amount of time) and I also worked a fair few Sundays. With the 2-3 days in the week, this added up to more than I have ever earnt, monthly, than in any other job I've ever had. So I was fortunate...but this wasn't to last.

Within a year and a half of my time there, the business pushed through a change which slowly phased out weekend pay. But only for the low-end employees like myself, those of middle and upper management retained that extra pay (this is something I found out by being friends with the brother of the lady who did the wages). This was done subtly and quietly, and there actually wasn't that much outrage because of this. Most other retail companies at this time had scrapped the idea of extra weekend pay, so it was only natural that this company would seek to catch up to this financial wizardry.

Now I do not hate the free-market or business in itself, nor do I constantly decry capitalism as a system. But this was a real situation and one that resulted in me seeking a second job in order to keep enough money coming in. This second job was one I stayed at for a number of years and at one point I was working there and a different retail outlet, where I would get up at 5:30am, ride to the retail job, work till 2:30-3:00pm and then go across to my 2nd job until around 7-8pm (sometimes this was 9 or later). And I did this 5 days of the week, with the weekends only working the 16 hours for Saturday and Sunday. I worked so hard at this that I actually made myself severely ill and realised at the start of last year that I needed to change my direction in life.

Although this is just one person's experience, I cannot speak for others. But it might serve as an example that it's understandable that some people might question the nature of talent, success and achievement when contrasted with ideas of luck.

Luck and talent are both terms for causal events which are too small and complicated to follow with our conscious minds, they're a good short-hand for the kind of boredom and ignorance which is necessary for us to cope with reality.

And this is not to say that I think people should give up, or play passive victim to every circumstance they find upsetting, hard work and talent are still important, but no one controls that they exist. They also do not control the manner of existence they are born into. Genetics, social-standing, financial-standing. These are not choices until much later in life and those earlier credentials for existing have a heavy influence on an individual's future. There are exceptions, the minority of a minority again, but this only seeks to fuel the fires of doubt. For every success, there are millions of failures that no one was witness to.

It takes great courage (and no small amount of belligerence) to stand up to failure and keep moving.

Though success is a value judgement by degrees and is hard to objectively quantify.

Existence is inflicted or gifted to us, depending on your perspective and your circumstances.

Perhaps because of this, there needs to be a redirection of attention. One which has been peddled for many centuries by gurus, but I don't seek to be such a snake-oil salesman. Instead, I can only advise that a person needs to evaluate their values and drives as best they can and see which ones appear to be their own and ones which have been inculcated within them by aggressive psychological warfare in the form of advertising.
 

Doctor Cringelord

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Guys, I think the study is referring to the very wealthy. Doctors, attorneys, etc. are what I'd call upper-middle-class. They're wealthy compared to most, to be sure, but the article speaks of those who became ultra-wealthy through a luck of the draw scenario - knowing the right investor, or having the right contacts to drive up the profitability of one's business. Seems that many of us have tried to do what we could with the given circumstances to improve our odds of success - which we all define differently - whether through education, hard work, and/or entrepreneurship (I did this as a kid... although I got scolded for selling things door to door to my neighbors!) There sadly isn't a formula to becoming one of the lucky ones. As others have said, it boils down to social circles and family connections for most of us.

Still, we can't just wallow in despair. I'm solution-oriented. Even for those of us who are too squeamish to become the next Ben Carson or aren't an autistic wunderkind like Elon Musk can achieve something resembling prosperity. Women, in particular, should be encouraged to go into traditionally male-dominated trades like locksmithing, electrical / HVAC, and plumbing, since those pay much better than traditionally female-dominated trades like cosmetology. Not everyone has to go to college. If I had children, I would inform them that it's their choice to do so if that's their dream, but I also wouldn't lie to his or her face and say that it'll give them any sort of leg-up in the workforce.

I’d add that women can actually exceed men in a lot of those mechanical/repair fields. They tend to have smaller hands, which can make it easier for, say, reaching into a cramped car engine, or rewiring a small fuse box or something of that nature. While they lack the upper body strength, it doesn’t really matter when tools are being used. Men sometimes have a tendency to put too much brute strength into certain tasks, exerting too much force and breaking mechanical parts in the process. If I had a daughter, no matter what she wanted to do in life, I’d make sure I taught her how to use basic hand tools and enroll her in a couple shop or electrical repair courses, just to have a hands on skill to fall back on if her feminist dance theory degree didn’t lead to a lucrative career
 
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