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Thread: Random Thought Thread

  1. #60581
    back and forth Array Hawthorne's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by uumlau View Post
    I have great skepticism of most statistical approaches to research, because instead of concluding (as they should) that "Hmm, these seem to be correlated. Research into phenomenology should look into this," they conclude, for example, "Cell phones are cooking your sperm!" (Mobile phones are 'cooking' men's sperm - Telegraph) Yes, a .2 Watt device is heating your sperm beyond acceptable levels, because statistics!
    To be fair, that has more to do with the way media people oversimplify and sensationalize stats than being an actual fault of the methods themselves.
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  2. #60582
    Oɴᴇ Dᴀʏ ᴀᴛ ᴀ Tɪᴍᴇ Array Yamato Nadeshiko's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinclair View Post
    To be fair, that has more to do with the way media people oversimplify and sensationalize stats than being an actual fault of the methods themselves.
    Yup. And I'm taking social statistics (specifically qualitative), so we have a lot of emphasis on correctly interpreting data, not just doing route mathematics.


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  3. #60583
    Happy Dancer Array uumlau's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sinclair View Post
    To be fair, that has more to do with the way media people oversimplify and sensationalize stats than being an actual fault of the methods themselves.
    Quote Originally Posted by 21lux View Post
    Yup. And I'm taking social statistics (specifically qualitative), so we have a lot of emphasis on correctly interpreting data, not just doing route mathematics.
    Um, no. It is an actual fault of the methods themselves. There are innumerable "scientific" papers that are nothing more than a set of measurements with "p-values":
    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/odds-are-its-wrong
    The problem with P values: defining clinical vs. statistical significance | Public Health
    The problem with p values: how significant are they, really?
    On the scalability of statistical procedures: why the p-value bashers just don’t get it. | Simply Statistics
    http://www.perfendo.org/docs/BayesPr...onceptions.pdf

    As some of these links note, the problem is not with "p-values", but how many scientists naively use them. The meaning of particular statistical measures is very, very tricky - the same level of tricky as quantum mechanics or special relativity. One bad assumption ruins the whole thing. And bad assumptions are very human and very easy, because it will look like something is true and reasonably so. But the notion that there is something "true" is just as unlikely for these reasonable-looking conclusions as it is for these: http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

    Random Thought Thread-chart-jpg

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    An argument is two people sharing their ignorance.

    A discussion is two people sharing their understanding, even when they disagree.
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    I should probably mention that I'm talking strictly about General Social Survey data (which still has its problems and should be taken with a grain of salt as to the accuracy of the respondents' answers). I can't speak for other types of data or sources because I don't use them.


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    Quote Originally Posted by 21lux View Post
    I should probably mention that I'm talking strictly about General Social Survey data (which still has its problems and should be taken with a grain of salt as to the accuracy of the respondents' answers). I can't speak for other types of data or sources because I don't use them.
    No worries. I'm just giving you a bit of a hard time.

    As long as you know the limitations of statistics, you're fine. It's just that in a publish-or-perish atmosphere in academia, there is a lot of incentive to publish half-assed papers that will pass peer review solely because they have the requisite p-values, and the reviewers don't much care about how the conclusions are interpreted as long as they aren't unreasonable.
    An argument is two people sharing their ignorance.

    A discussion is two people sharing their understanding, even when they disagree.

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    Quote Originally Posted by uumlau View Post
    No worries. I'm just giving you a bit of a hard time.

    As long as you know the limitations of statistics, you're fine. It's just that in a publish-or-perish atmosphere in academia, there is a lot of incentive to publish half-assed papers that will pass peer review solely because they have the requisite p-values, and the reviewers don't much care about how the conclusions are interpreted as long as they aren't unreasonable.
    Oh definitely. There's so much bullshit floating around that it's unbelievable.


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    Quote Originally Posted by uumlau View Post
    Um, no. It is an actual fault of the methods themselves. There are innumerable "scientific" papers that are nothing more than a set of measurements with "p-values":
    https://www.sciencenews.org/article/odds-are-its-wrong
    The problem with P values: defining clinical vs. statistical significance | Public Health
    The problem with p values: how significant are they, really?
    On the scalability of statistical procedures: why the p-value bashers just don’t get it. | Simply Statistics
    http://www.perfendo.org/docs/BayesPr...onceptions.pdf

    As some of these links note, the problem is not with "p-values", but how many scientists naively use them. The meaning of particular statistical measures is very, very tricky - the same level of tricky as quantum mechanics or special relativity. One bad assumption ruins the whole thing. And bad assumptions are very human and very easy, because it will look like something is true and reasonably so. But the notion that there is something "true" is just as unlikely for these reasonable-looking conclusions as it is for these: http://tylervigen.com/spurious-correlations

    Random Thought Thread-chart-jpg

    chart.jpg
    I feel like the bolded is exactly what I was suggesting in my reply to your cellphone example. The tools, while not perfect, are only as effective as when properly utilized and rigorously interpreted but many people don't take the care to do so. Perhaps deliberately or simply out of ignorance. My "to be fair" was pointing out that much of the unreliability we see in articles is inaccurate interpretation or accurate interpretation of badly done statistics.

    This article you linked says exactly that and I noted that all the others focused on the way we analyze significance not the methods we use to measure it. Even the phys.org one didn't say the problem was with using p-values, it's the consistent use of the default 0.05 p-value when a more or less selective one would be better for the given experiment.

    tl;dr: I don't think we're in disagreement about the shoddy findings of many research studies. I'm just curious why you place the blame on statistics as a whole when "scientists who do statistics badly" seems the better target? Unless I misinterpreted your original post?

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    Got one of my ISTJs to answer my johari and nohari muahahaha fucking finally


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    It's almost time for the next avatar in my rotation but I'm just lovin' these little birdie kisses so much.


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    Got some marvelous shit cooking up for one of my uni classes... I reckon I could pull it off, too.

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