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  1. #61
    Dhampyr Economica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    That might be it... But in my head, I just quickly went "Chance of seeing + chance of seeing = chance", if you will. It was abstract and not accurate, but the foundation of what was happening was instant.
    You correctly solved the cab problem? Are you serious?

    Edit: Wait a sec ... "Chance of seeing + chance of seeing = chance"? You DID double-check your solution, right?

  2. #62
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Economica View Post
    You correctly solved the cab problem? Are you serious?
    I believed him. I know how his [twisted little] mind works.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  3. #63
    Dhampyr Economica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I believed him. I know how his [twisted little] mind works.
    I believe him too. It's just really rare.

  4. #64
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Economica View Post
    You correctly solved the cab problem? Are you serious?
    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I believed him. I know how his [twisted little] mind works.
    That's what confused me... I was thinking "How can it be so difficult" after just reading the description. But before that I was thinking I was a moron cause of the card problem... I couldn't figure it out last night either. And then today everyone was like - oh yah, this is why... and I was still thinking... what? I felt like Athenian did on the door problem. Even now it doesn't sit right... yet I know it's simple.

    Mind you, I think I might of seen the problem before

    (What class did you have that one presented to you Economica?)

  5. #65
    Dhampyr Economica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    (What class did you have that one presented to you Economica?)
    Behavioral economics. Just my line of research were I to follow that path.

    (Behavioral economics = Economists finally getting that people really do systematically deviate from the standard (and eminently useful) assumptions of rationality and self-interest. )

  6. #66
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Economica View Post
    Behavioral economics. Just my line of research were I to follow that path.
    Hmm, heavy support for N dominated field then. I'd be curious if there is an aptitude thing going on here. I suspect that because there is still an abstraction (to math, mostly), Ss would still struggle with the problem... but perhaps as a S that was an N, that particular combination wasn't an issue. Hrmmm....

    Doing post-grad Economica? I vote you test cognitive biases vs personality traits. That'd be fascinating...

  7. #67
    Dhampyr Economica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    Hmm, heavy support for N dominated field then. I'd be curious if there is an aptitude thing going on here. I suspect that because there is still an abstraction (to math, mostly), Ss would still struggle with the problem... but perhaps as a S that was an N, that particular combination wasn't an issue. Hrmmm....

    Doing post-grad Economica? I vote you test cognitive biases vs personality traits. That'd be fascinating...
    Just plain grad (at an, uh, leisurely pace ) - and I have no plans to pursue research, but if I were to, then you bet I'd be doing exactly that.

    Edit: I would comment on the N/S thing but after doing so in your blog with little success I don't dare to.

  8. #68

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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    That might be it... But in my head, I just quickly went "Chance of seeing + chance of seeing = chance", if you will. It was abstract and not accurate, but the foundation of what was happening was instant.

    But I could barely grasp what the card problem was even asking. I read it so many times and still couldn't see where it was going.

    The door problem confused me until I saw on paper, if you will.

    Geeze, sure sounds like a S:N thing, actually. 1) application, 2) abstraction, 3) evidence.

    S = Strong 1, weak 2, moderate 3.
    N = Weak 1, strong/moderate 2, moderate/strong 3 (?)

    Or maybe it's more granular than that, based on solutions we have had to solve before...
    Do you guys think there is an S-N thing involved in how well you understand these problems?

    I think pt is just used to using Bayes' Rule (considering he was just explaining what he meant by an '->' essentially using Bayes' Rule in an other thread).

    The concepts of modus ponens and modus tollens were exposed to me in second or third grade due to being in the "Gifted" program (talk about a self-fulfilling use of IQ), so I just got used to thinking about things that way.
    I would also guess that people who spend a lot of time in the realm of pure logic: mathematicians, computer scientists, philosophers, etc., are much more likely to find the card problem "natural" (Though only 1 out of 19 software candidates got it right-- We hired him, but not for that reason alone. Makes me wonder if I should have put that problem on the interview when we first started).


    Another little puzzle:

    A couple (say pt and Non) invites 10 other couples to an engagement party. pt asks everyone present, including Non, how many people they shook hands with. It turns out that everyone (except perhaps pt, since he didn't ask himself) shook hands with a different number of people. If we assume no one shook hands w/ his or her partner, how many people did Non shake hands with?

    Hope I wasn't to presumptuous in using your names in the puzzle.

    Congratulations Non and pt.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
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  9. #69
    Dhampyr Economica's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    I think pt is just used to using Bayes' Rule (considering he was just explaining what he meant by an '->' essentially using Bayes' Rule in an other thread).
    I refer you to post 19 in this thread. Familiarity with Bayes' Rule is not enough.

    I refer you also to the Ph.D.'s in math who embarassed themselves telling off Marilyn vos Savant regarding the Monty Hall problem.

    Edit: Oh, and the card problem I got right immediately. (The cab problem, no, obviously. :blushing

  10. #70
    Protocol Droid Athenian200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    A couple (say pt and Non) invites 10 other couples to an engagement party. pt asks everyone present, including Non, how many people they shook hands with. It turns out that everyone (except perhaps pt, since he didn't ask himself) shook hands with a different number of people. If we assume no one shook hands w/ his or her partner, how many people did Non shake hands with?
    There are 22 people, then.

    The person asking the question doesn't include themselves, leaving 21 people including Nonpareil.

    If no one shook hands with their partner, that would leave 19 possible people for each of the others, because they wouldn't shake hands with themselves. Since Nonpareil is part of the couple doing the inviting, it is likely that she shook hands with all possible guests, while the guests might only have shaken hands with the people they knew or were introduced to. Therefore... 20 people?

    I'm probably wrong, but I have no idea how to proceed. Sorry.

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