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  1. #1
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    Default The tendency of ignorance to beget confidence and knowledge to beget doubt

    This explains explains so much:

    Dunning–Kruger effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The Dunning–Kruger effect is a cognitive bias in which "people reach erroneous conclusions and make unfortunate choices but their incompetence robs them of the metacognitive ability to realize it".[1] The unskilled therefore suffer from illusory superiority, rating their own ability as above average, much higher than in actuality; by contrast, the highly skilled underrate their abilities, suffering from illusory inferiority. This leads to a perverse result where less competent people will rate their own ability higher than more competent people. It also explains why actual competence may weaken self-confidence because competent individuals falsely assume that others have an equivalent understanding. "Thus, the miscalibration of the incompetent stems from an error about the self, whereas the miscalibration of the highly competent stems from an error about others."[1]
    “ The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ”

    — Bertrand Russell[2]

    The phenomenon was demonstrated in a series of experiments performed by Justin Kruger and David Dunning, then both of Cornell University. Their results were published in the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology in December 1999.[1][3] However, the phenomenon had been assumed by many philosophers for nearly a century prior to Kruger and Dunning's study (see Russell quote above).

    Kruger and Dunning noted a number of previous studies which tend to suggest that in skills as diverse as reading comprehension, operating a motor vehicle, and playing chess or tennis, "ignorance more frequently begets confidence than does knowledge" (as Charles Darwin put it).[4] They hypothesized that with a typical skill which humans may possess in greater or lesser degree,

    1. Incompetent individuals tend to overestimate their own level of skill.
    2. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize genuine skill in others.
    3. Incompetent individuals fail to recognize the extremity of their inadequacy.
    4. If they can be trained to substantially improve their own skill level, these individuals can recognize and acknowledge their own previous lack of skill.
    Your thoughts...

  2. #2
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Yes, I knew about this, and it causes me great insecurity.

    The moment I think I'm good at something, I think of this.

    Then I think "well, if you doubt yourself by thinking of that, then is that not evidence you are one of the competent and not one of the incompetent?".

    But then I reason that if I actually bought into that, I'd have self-confidence which would once again leave me vulnerable to becoming a self-assured dolt, or that I may in fact be one already.

    So then I decide that I can't know if I'm competent or not just by judging myself, and I figure that it's safer for me to just keep doubting myself, since that allows more for the possiiblity that I actually am competent.

    This cycle plays out in my head on a regular basis.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  3. #3
    Senior Member Jaguar's Avatar
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    For years I have asked people the following question:
    "Do you see yourself as a teacher, or a student?"

    My motivation for doing so ties right into your post, Disco.
    My own answer is I am an eternal student. I can never know enough.
    If you ever think you're a teacher, you stopped learning.

    Great quote:
    “ The trouble with the world is that the stupid are cocksure and the intelligent are full of doubt. ”

    Indeed.

    Edit: I grew up with a brother who in his teens would say, "The great one is here." He thinks he's a genius.
    My Dad calls him stupid. Imagine that.

  4. #4
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Either the title isn't catchy, or people are too uncomfortable to say anything here.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  5. #5
    Carerra Lu IZthe411's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Either the title isn't catchy, or people are too uncomfortable to say anything here.
    Yeah you have to kind of cock your head somewhat to make sense of it LOL

  6. #6
    Carerra Lu IZthe411's Avatar
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    I agree...I think that's why there are a lot of brilliant people overshadowed by duds. How many of us say we can run circles around our bosses? It is the truth, but they are probably more willing to risk looking like an idiot, over those who think twice before they act.

    I know that's one thing I have to learn and continue to learn- You can have a lot of knowledge up here, but to be a leader you have to display confidence as well. Ideally, people put their confidence in you only after you've demonstrated that you are competent as well.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Jaguar's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Either the title isn't catchy, or people are too uncomfortable to say anything here.
    All the "geniuses" are silent.

  8. #8
    & Badger, Ratty and Toad Mole's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Your thoughts...
    The scientific method is based on doubt.

    While spirituality is based on the taken-for-granted.

    There is a reason for this as the scientific method belongs to the cognitive faculties, while spirituality belongs to the imaginative faculties.

    In fact the scientific method requires us to be wide awake, while spirituality requires us to be in a trance.

    Unfortunately we can't be wide awake and in a trance at the same time, so spirituality and the scientific method sleep in different beds.

    However when the moon is right, and in the dead of the night, they rise from their beds and dance in the moonlight.

  9. #9
    Glowy Goopy Goodness The_Liquid_Laser's Avatar
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    The real irony of this phenomenon is that both knowledge and confidence contribute to success. The most effective people are both knowledgable and confident. Think of Bill Gates or Warren Buffet. Both are highly successful, and (not coincidentally) they are extremely knowledgable while being quite confident in themselves.
    My wife and I made a game to teach kids about nutrition. Please try our game and vote for us to win. (Voting period: July 14 - August 14)
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  10. #10
    Senior Member Jaguar's Avatar
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    "Cocksure," is overconfidence and arrogance.

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