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  1. #21
    only bites when provoked
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    Most of us travel to work getting less for that work than the amount we would want at some ratio.
    I 100%, N 88%, T 88%, J 75%

    Disclaimer: The above is my opinion and mine alone, it does not mean I cannot change my mind, nor does it guarantee that my comments are related to any deep-seated convictions. Take everything I say with a whole snowplow worth of salt and call me in the morning, if you can.

  2. #22
    pathwise dependent FDG's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Santtu View Post
    The money I expect to make during my lifetime is $2M. I would expect to get maximum of 50% increased utility in my life from additional $2M, but no more. So if I make comparison between utility / life, I can say that 1/3 of a life is worth $2M to me. So, 1 life is worth $6M and I'd be willing to trade $0.006 for 1 in a billion chance of death.
    I agree with the reasoning until this point, but you should weigh the probability for the free time you lose! Of course the value of free time is completely subjective, but for an accurate valutation you should add to the 6M the value of the time expended in other activites (for me, it'd be much more than the value I create with working).

  3. #23
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Santtu View Post
    Why, has the devil offered a pact for you?
    No no... well, everyday I suppose

    But it was a question that was posed and there seems to be two schools of thought... yours was one (I hate economics, FWIW ) and the other was comparable risk (what do you already take as an equivalent risk that you could replace with a fixed risk).

    I have a strong preference for the 2nd while only mild hatred for the first.

    Mostly I thought it was an interesting question and was wondering how people would approach the situation.

  4. #24
    4x9 cascadeco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    A curious question (again from Overcoming Bias);

    What is the least money would you ask for to accept for taking one in one billion chance of dying?

    What about one in one million? What about 1 in 2?
    My immediate response is that if I were to actually do the bet of 1 in a billion, I would shoot for the moon and the 'least' amount I'd accept would be a large amount - oh, millions. Why the heck not?? If I'm going to bet on my life, might as well request a lot. :-) Forget this $14 nonsense. [But I'm thinking I'm completely missing the point of this question!]

    One in a million, just the same - I'd request a lot, just because I could. :-)

    One in a hundred, I'd possibly do the bet, only because it would be unlikely I'd die. BUT the reality is that I'd know there was that 1% chance, so I'm pretty sure I'd never do it.

    1 in 2, I'd never do it. My life is too valuable to me.

    But anyway - money isn't my motivator. If it was, I would have followed a very different career path. Despite that, if I were to bet on this, I'd request a lot of money - because, why not. I don't think the amount I requested would change any based on odds, because I would charge the same rate no matter what the odds - high the entire time. :-)

  5. #25
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cascademn View Post
    But anyway - money isn't my motivator.
    Heh, I should of used Recluse's wording.

    The problem asks what is the 'least' amount you would accept for the risk (in the theory that anything more would be taken as well), not so much that you can name your price.

    (Ie: at the 1:2 ratio, I'd need to ask for enough so that if I did win, I could inflict major change upon the world... how noble of me It wouldn't be a small amount). The approximate value of my life, I estimate, is around 6 million, give or take 300% based on if you consider it "full employment" (working all the time) and such.

    But in terms of marginal value, life is worth a lot more than the utility I'd get... I get one life, literally, and so it is priceless to me, meaning no risk should be undertaken for any amount of money... except the problem is that everything we do involves risk, which is why I prefer the trade-off approach. Course, all life ends... and so... gah... my head hurts .

  6. #26
    4x9 cascadeco's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    meaning no risk should be undertaken for any amount of money... except the problem is that everything we do involves risk, which is why I prefer the trade-off approach. Course, all life ends... and so... gah... my head hurts .
    Now, this I understand, because I suppose subconsciously I do it all the time.

    I take risks in life if I can answer 'Will I gain life experience, or will my life be richer if I do this?' in the affirmative. And of course, my definition of 'rich life' is of my own making - it'll be different from how other people would define it. Also, if I'm given an opportunity to do something, or choose one path or another, I'll choose the one that I believe will leave me with least regret later in life, and that has the greatest net positive result. As I define 'positive.' :-)

    So, for example, traveling. I see traveling as a rich life experience - it's like cramming 1 year of 'ordinary', everyday life into 1 or 2 weeks. It's like sensory and being-alive overload, it's wonderful. So, I do it whenever possible. I've even traveled overseas by myself. The 'risks' in travel are quite substantially higher than my just staying put; but, the odds are still low enough that I don't think it's likely that I won't come back (unless I go *by myself* to a war-ridden nation, which I wouldn't do, because that's where it wouldn't be worth the great possibility that I wouldn't survive or wouldn't make it home. But if I went with a group, the risk would then decrease - or my perception of risk would). So perhaps given that, I do risk my life more than many people do...because many people are quite paranoid about traveling overseas. But, I see the rewards of what I do to far outsurpass the risks involved. So if I would die while doing it, at least I would die having lived a fulfilling life, doing things I enjoyed. :-)

    Ie: at the 1:2 ratio, I'd need to ask for enough so that if I did win, I could inflict major change upon the world...
    I guess my mind doesn't wrap itself around the money risk/reward ratios. I just don't think in these terms. I still would have a high 'least' amount. Eh...I'm stubborn, and can't play the game as you designed it. :-)

  7. #27
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by cascademn View Post
    I guess my mind doesn't wrap itself around the money risk/reward ratios. I just don't think in these terms. I still would have a high 'least' amount. Eh...I'm stubborn, and can't play the game as you designed it. :-)
    That's ok I think we all do it with money, but perhaps for some it is more hidden...

    I used driving to a different (farther away store) to save money as one of the ways I could calculate what I was willing to do to save $x dollars. But the smart people here used the economists' approach, but I can't stand thinking like that... I think more in your terms, since travel is one of the big things I want to do (but can't afford, so there's my money angle ).

    I think it just depends on our approach to the world.

  8. #28
    Glowy Goopy Goodness The_Liquid_Laser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    A curious question (again from Overcoming Bias);

    What is the least money would you ask for to accept for taking one in one billion chance of dying?

    (My answer is $14 in case anyone is curious.)

    What about one in one million? What about 1 in 2?

    I'm curious how people answer this more than the answer themselves. Would you ever accept this bet?
    This sounds like a life insurance question from one of my actuarial exams. The thing I am wondering is what is the time interval for the given probability of death? I would actually pay someone to only have a one in one million chance of dying over a one year time interval. To have only a one in one billion chance of dying would be wonderful. We are all much more mortal than this (if you are using a one year time interval).

    Life is short and uncertain, so be sure to enjoy the life that you have. Also if you have dependents, then buy life insurance (unless you hate them).
    My wife and I made a game to teach kids about nutrition. Please try our game and vote for us to win. (Voting period: July 14 - August 14)
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  9. #29
    Protocol Droid Athenian200's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    A curious question (again from Overcoming Bias);

    What is the least money would you ask for to accept for taking one in one billion chance of dying?

    (My answer is $14 in case anyone is curious.)

    What about one in one million? What about 1 in 2?

    I'm curious how people answer this more than the answer themselves. Would you ever accept this bet?
    1 in 1 billion: $7,000

    1 in 1 million: $1,000,000

    1 in 2: Never

  10. #30
    filling some space UnitOfPopulation's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by athenian200 View Post
    1 in 1 billion: $7,000

    1 in 1 million: $1,000,000

    1 in 2: Never
    Really? Would you pay $7,000 now to lessen your chance of death by 1 in a billion?

    If not, you are demanding too much money by your own standards.

    When the quantities are changed at the optimum point, you would be equally happy to do the exchange either way.

    If you don't have $7,000, adjust for whatever money you have at the moment, like $700 and 1 in 10 billion.

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