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Thread: Seriously.

  1. #71
    Senior Member millerm277's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simulatedworld View Post
    Perfect play in blackjack (without counting), for instance (depending on the specific rules of that casino), tends to yield about a 98% return on investment.
    Minor note. Counting IS legal. They cannot "take back" your winnings or anything of that sort for doing it. Of course, they are allowed to "blacklist" you at their discretion. If you can do it perfectly (and play perfectly), the odds are slightly in your favor, assuming it's only a single deck the casino is using.
    I-95%, S-84%, T-89%, P-84%

  2. #72
    Freshman Member simulatedworld's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by millerm277 View Post
    Minor note. Counting IS legal. They cannot "take back" your winnings or anything of that sort for doing it. Of course, they are allowed to "blacklist" you at their discretion. If you can do it perfectly (and play perfectly), the odds are slightly in your favor, assuming it's only a single deck the casino is using.
    Counting isn't illegal, but it's against casino rules, and they have people trained in counting techniques watching your every move on camera. If they even suspect that you're doing it, you're gone.

    But yes, you're right that if you can avoid detection counting can give you a slight edge. This can be done even in multi-deck shoes, depending on how often the deck is reshuffled, surrender and soft 17 rules, and a few other factors. The problem is avoiding detection when counting, though. =P
    If you could be anything you want, I bet you'd be disappointed--am I right?

  3. #73
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by simulatedworld View Post
    This is such a poor argument that I can only conclude you are carrying on this thread specifically to piss people off. (Which, to be fair, is something I can identify with.)

    Nonetheless I'll flex my NT and shoot it down anyway, if for no other reason than to piss you off by forcing you to defend an argument you didn't seriously believe in anyway (then again, you might just love that):
    What you're doing is flexing your ST.

    Quitting while you're ahead is rather difficult considering that most people, on average, will never actually get ahead.
    It was never a question of whether or not it's easy, just whether or not it's possible.
    It's not that it's impossible to ever win money in a casino game in a few isolated instances, just that every time you play the more likely it becomes that you will end up behind.
    Hmm, well I never was that good at statistics, I guess I'll confess that, but when you really look at it, cumulative statistics are entirely irrelevant. Gambling is all about those isolated instances. If you don't know how to leverage them, then you're bound to to end up behind.
    That's true, but again, this was never a question of whether or not it was easy, or even likely. It was a question of possibility.
    That you didn't recognize that proves you're not using your N.

    So it's ST.
    Go jerk off Lickels or something.

    Let's say you and I are going to gamble a dollar per trial on a long series of coin flips.
    Before I'd agree to that, I'd first set myself a limit after which point I don't play anymore.
    You win on heads and I win on tails, except that I'm using a weighted coin that comes up tails 52% of the time. We could sit and toss this coin gambling a dollar on every toss for an hour or two, and it's perfectly reasonable that you might come out ahead. In fact, 48% of the time you will. But the longer we sit and continue this game the more your total financial losses will slowly begin to average out to more than your wins.
    Here's your problem.
    You mistake likelihood for results.

    48% against 52% can still win. And it might win 15 times in a row. Yeah, it's very unlikely, but it can happen. I'll walk away after that streak.

    Perfect play in blackjack (without counting), for instance (depending on the specific rules of that casino), tends to yield about a 98% return on investment.
    Tends to, but doesn't always.
    The casino's edge here is actually very small--just as in our coin flip gamble, who wins in the short term is pretty random!
    Like I said, it's all about those short term events. Win a big one and get the fuck out. If you think I'm being shortsighted, you're projecting.

    I'm sure there are people out there who have a lifelong net positive total for casinos, but it's because they got lucky in the short term and then stopped playing.
    This was my whole fucking point.

    How did you an LINS both miss that?

    There is no such thing as a lifetime net positive slots player, for instance, unless that player only played a small number of times and stopped.
    This is what I'm fucking saying. Did you even read my posts or are you just too pissed that I slammed your good buddy Lickels about his bad habits and poor decisions to actually take in information?
    we fukin won boys

  4. #74
    Senior Member Nillerz's Avatar
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    If you like gambling, go get a tapestry of some dogs playing poker and put it in your living room then buy a bar and a pool table and a poker table and get some yellow lights and a tap and oh my god I want to be a gambling addict!

  5. #75
    Shaman BlackCat's Avatar
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    It annoys me that you totally bypassed Victor's post back on page 4, it was cool.
    () 9w8-3w4-7w6 tritype.

    sCueI (primary Inquisition)

  6. #76
    Senior Member Wild horses's Avatar
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    I won a packet at my last poker game.. it was pretty fun too!
    ... couldn't drag me away

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  7. #77
    Freshman Member simulatedworld's Avatar
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    Ok Nocap I'm not even going to read all of that.

    If you think long term statistics are irrelevant you're the one being a hugely myopic Sensor. Please, by all means, knock yourself out and hit up the Blackjack tables in Vegas this weekend. Let me know how it goes.

    It's more likely that you'll finish behind than ahead...that was my underlying point.
    If you could be anything you want, I bet you'd be disappointed--am I right?

  8. #78
    Freshman Member simulatedworld's Avatar
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    And oh yes, if you're so unconcerned with long term probability, why can't we play heads up poker for money? Who gives a shit if you have a statistical edge? Ironically the biggest pessimist on the entirety of typologycentral has deluded himself into being optimistic about the outcomes of bad gambling investments.

    Let's play!
    If you could be anything you want, I bet you'd be disappointed--am I right?

  9. #79
    Courage is immortality Valiant's Avatar
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    Nocap, start building stuff. Anything from spud launchers to outhouses. You're ENTP, right? My father is also a stupid-ass ENTP and he found that hobby when he was like 25-30, still hasn't abandoned it more than 30 years later.

    Mightier than the tread of marching armies is the power of an idea whose time has come

  10. #80
    DoubleplusUngoodNonperson
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    bump!

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