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Thread: Seriously.

  1. #51
    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocapszy View Post
    First of all, you started your post with failure to pay attention.

    That seems like ignorance to me.

    What exactly was it that tipped you off?

    Again, wrong.

    Of all the people in the world who go to the casino, you don't think just one of them managed to win and keep winning?

    You're the probability expert. You ought to know this.
    I never said I was an expert on probability. I understand it well enough to build automated trading systems.

  2. #52
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LostInNerSpace View Post
    I never said I was an expert on probability. I understand it well enough to build automated trading systems.
    I always recommend against accusing others of poor usage/understanding of anything without having first a strong understanding of it yourself.
    we fukin won boys

  3. #53
    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocapszy View Post
    we're playing conservatively and smartly
    This is one of the two big holes in your logic. How exactly do you play smartly? The thing about these games is that there is a negative expected return built-in to the game. Your payout over a series of games is negative. The more you play, the more you lose.

    If I say to you, for every dollar you give me, I'll give you 95 cents in return on average. Would you do it? Of course not. But that is exactly what the casino does. They just don't present it like that. They wrap it up into a nice, fun game with free drinks, and half naked waitresses. The payout for Roulette is -5.26%. For every $1 you give them, they will on average give you back 95 cents. The 95cent on the dollar you get in return, is what fools you into a false sense of security. It seems like you are winning money back.

    The other big hole is that you are also subject to the forces of fear and greed. When you lose money, you feel fear and try to win back what you lost. When you win you get over confident, take bigger risks, and end up getting spanked twice as hard because those bigger risks mean you lose more money faster, and before you know it, you're back to fear.

    Stick to competitive glue sniffing.

  4. #54
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LostInNerSpace View Post
    This is one of the two big holes in your logic. How exactly do you play smartly? The thing about these games is that there is a negative expected return built-in to the game. Your payout over a series of games is negative. The more you play, the more you lose.

    If I say to you, for every dollar you give me, I'll give you 95 cents in return on average. Would you do it? Of course not. But that is exactly what the casino does.
    What the fuck are you talking about? It might work that way on average, but hand to hand, it's not that simple.

    This discussion is over as per your inappropriately projecting logical fallacy.

    They just don't present it like that. They wrap it up into a nice, fun game with free drinks, and half naked waitresses. The payout for Roulette is -5.26%. For every $1 you give them, they will on average give you back 95 cents. The 95cent on the dollar you get in return, is what fools you into a false sense of security. It seems like you are winning money back.
    Average is not the same as hand to hand.
    You have got to be kidding me...
    Everyone take note -- this is TJ-logic.

    They'd quicker look at what someone else has done and assess the net gain/loss while simultaneously criticizing the engagement in the activity altogether than to actually pick it apart play by play and identify the problem and do it differently.

    The other big hole is that you are also subject to the forces of fear and greed.
    Unless I keep myself aware of that, and account for and balance it by vowing not to put the money back on the table once I breach my original investment.


    If you're really paying attention, you couldn't possible think you're right.
    But then, Js are notorious for having horrid attention.
    we fukin won boys

  5. #55
    Senior Member LostInNerSpace's Avatar
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    :rolli:

  6. #56
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nocapszy View Post
    Video games are for Js.

    Obviously.
    Thats a joke right?

  7. #57
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Yes sir it was.
    You and I have been through this...
    we fukin won boys

  8. #58
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LostInNerSpace View Post
    :rolli:
    Ah yes, the inevitable "I'm above this (and you -- guilt by association)" roll of the eyes.

    I'd just like to make sure all who read this pick up on the subtle difference between being right and being "the bigger man"

    As long as that's in order, credit is given where credit is due.
    we fukin won boys

  9. #59
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    So no one has any good ideas?

    Suit I woulda had some fun and said to rob a bank or a supermarket. Maybe say to pull a prank like put drano in someones gas tank and see what happens.

    You're all boring too.

    I need to go find that ENFP.
    we fukin won boys

  10. #60
    Occasional Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LostInNerSpace View Post
    This is one of the two big holes in your logic. How exactly do you play smartly? The thing about these games is that there is a negative expected return built-in to the game. Your payout over a series of games is negative. The more you play, the more you lose.

    If I say to you, for every dollar you give me, I'll give you 95 cents in return on average. Would you do it? Of course not. But that is exactly what the casino does. They just don't present it like that.
    Wrong. That is not exactly what the casino does (in poker).

    Are you being serious?

    This is only true in games of 100% chance and 0% skill.

    Poker is not coin-flipping.

    If you are a statistically average player, you will lose money in the long run (duh). If you are better enough than average to make up for the negative EV, you will make money in the long run.

    Stop condescending when you have no idea what you're talking about.

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