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  1. #11
    Senior Member Mal12345's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Yeah. That was confusing. I fixed it now.




    Essentially, you run the model backwards in time based on a short amount of near-term data, and then check against past data. It's not easy by any means, because multiple histories still lead to the same place in many dynamical systems. Nevertheless, in areas where trajectories diverge when running forward in time, they will converge when the go back in time.
    And then make minuscule adjustments to the model until a perfect match is created. But if you make a minuscule adjustment to any part of the model and then move it forward in time, a new history is created which diverges farther and farther from the original. Thus the butterfly effect.

    I sincerely doubt that a minuscule adjustment made on the butterfly level would have any effect on the system or that the adjustments made are of such a tiny factor.
    "Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson
    “Culture?” says Paul McCartney. “This isn't culture. It's just a good laugh.”

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Mal12345 View Post
    And then make minuscule adjustments to the model until a perfect match is created. But if you make a minuscule adjustment to any part of the model and then move it forward in time, a new history is created which diverges farther and farther from the original. Thus the butterfly effect.

    I sincerely doubt that a minuscule adjustment made on the butterfly level would have any effect on the system or that the adjustments made are of such a tiny factor.
    Generally, a perfect match is considered over fitting. Besides in a test, no adjustments are made. The test has to be performed without adjusting parameters.

    Well, every chaotic system is unique, but there are examples, like x:=4*x*(1-x), where a tiny change (from 0.5 to 0.51) leads to drastically different behavior.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
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    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  3. #13
    deplorable basketcase Tellenbach's Avatar
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    The point is better made using elections. Cast a vote for a marxist community organizer and watch the ripples of damage spread and ruin thousands of weddings all over the globe.
    Senator Rand Paul is alive because of modern medicine and because his attacker punches like a girl.

  4. #14
    Senior Member Mal12345's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Generally, a perfect match is considered over fitting. Besides in a test, no adjustments are made. The test has to be performed without adjusting parameters.

    Well, every chaotic system is unique, but there are examples, like x:=4*x*(1-x), where a tiny change (from 0.5 to 0.51) leads to drastically different behavior.
    I'm satisfied now that Neil deGrasse Tyson was drawing on an analogy that doesn't exist in reality but is purely based on making minute adjustments to mathematical models.
    "Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson
    “Culture?” says Paul McCartney. “This isn't culture. It's just a good laugh.”

  5. #15
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mal12345 View Post
    Weather is chaotic, but a butterfly flapping its wings in Bali isn't going to affect the weather in Maine. That would assume that the butterfly is the initial determiner of a linear weather pattern - i.e., that weather is NON-chaotic. And that's one reason why I don't watch Neil deGrasse Tyson.
    One reason? Do you have any others?

    I'm amused by the Neil deGrasse Tyson hate that has bubbled to the surface recently. The guy has gone out of his way to not antagonize believers throughout his public career. When people like Richard Dawkins have blatantly attacked religious belief, Neil deGrasse Tyson has balked at that. He cares only about one thing, not letting religious belief get in the way scientific progress. You can believe whatever you want, as long as it doesn't stop you from questioning.

    Watch the final 45 seconds of this video.

    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  6. #16
    Senior Member Mal12345's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    One reason? Do you have any others?

    I'm amused by the Neil deGrasse Tyson hate that has bubbled to the surface recently. The guy has gone out of his way to not antagonize believers throughout his public career. When people like Richard Dawkins have blatantly attacked religious belief, Neil deGrasse Tyson has balked at that. He cares only about one thing, not letting religious belief get in the way scientific progress. You can believe whatever you want, as long as it doesn't stop you from questioning.

    Watch the final 45 seconds of this video.
    Gravity creates tides, but what creates gravity? Bingo!
    "Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson
    “Culture?” says Paul McCartney. “This isn't culture. It's just a good laugh.”

  7. #17
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mal12345 View Post
    Gravity creates tides, but what creates gravity? Bingo!
    Mass creates gravity. Nice sidestep. Are you not going to talk about why you're such a NdGT hater anymore?
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  8. #18
    Senior Member Mal12345's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Mass creates gravity. Nice sidestep. Are you not going to talk about why you're such a NdGT hater anymore?
    Is gravity a particle?
    "Everyone has a plan till they get punched in the mouth." Mike Tyson
    “Culture?” says Paul McCartney. “This isn't culture. It's just a good laugh.”

  9. #19
    Blind Guardian Haven's Avatar
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    Gravity is a force
    {The Diplomat}
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    Meow.

  10. #20
    The Dark Lord The Wailing Specter's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Haven View Post
    Gravity is a force
    yep
    Enneagram: 6w7 (phobic) > 2w1 > 9w1
    Alignment: Chaotic Neutral
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    ATHEIST UNITARIAN UNIVERSALIST HUMANIST
    and
    SCIENCE ENTHUSIAST


    I say this as a reminder to myself, but this goes for everyone:

    You can achieve anything you set your mind to, and you are limited only by how dedicated you are to succeed!

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