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  1. #31
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    Quote Originally Posted by htb View Post
    Global warming: Jesus for secularists.
    That's the smartest thing I've read all week! (I should have read that months ago.)

  2. #32

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    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    When some scientist can actually prove what they actually preach then "I'm a believer".

    When we have carbon particles measured in 2-3 parts per billion, I can't really emphasise with the blanket concept. When scientists can say "Hey, the bubble of pollution over china creates a convection which transfers heat" then I'll start getting interested. Carbon has a 15 year life in the atmosphere.

    When you look at the earth in relation to the sun you are comparing a pea against a basketball. Then consider the differential in heat between the poles and the equator and you can see any small change with the sun will create significant heat changes.

    Nup, most of this global warming is just Y2K bug in disguise, so research scientists can get their funding allocated.

    Bring on global warming; the summer was crap in the UK. In fact I'm going to burn some toast right now...
    Think of it from a clinical perspective.

    What is the cost of acting on Global warming before it is too late if it is real vs. acting on it when it is not real? I don't know the answer to that question, for global warming.

    The risk avoidance perspective was the way we acted on the Y2K bug (and having removed such bugs personally, I know it was a real issue). I don't believe there was ever a chance that the world would come to an end (nor would any of the other catastrophes advertised come true).

    But (like the dot-com false promises) it was the advertisers that made the hype, not the IT professionals. I hope no-one is trying to pin any sort of hype on IT professionals (or scientists in the case of global warming), while absolving marketing (or Al Gore and other politicians).

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  3. #33
    Senior Member Veneti's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Think of it from a clinical perspective.

    What is the cost of acting on Global warming before it is too late if it is real vs. acting on it when it is not real? I don't know the answer to that question, for global warming.
    There are two major issues I have which underlie my "contempt" for the way it’s all being handled.

    1) If pollution really is the cause as they seem to be indicating, then why aren't they placing massive taxes on low value but polluting items? (just rank them and work down the list) No, they'd rather do token gestures and put a punitive tax on air travel.

    2) Even if you boil less water a day or anything else... it’s going to make sod all difference compared to India and China's contribution as they come on stream.

    Lastly, nobody is actually acting on global warming (not to a degree that’s going to make a difference).

    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    The risk avoidance perspective was the way we acted on the Y2K bug (and having removed such bugs personally, I know it was a real issue). I don't believe there was ever a chance that the world would come to an end (nor would any of the other catastrophes advertised come true).
    Nothing actually happened and many companies were unprepared, it was just easier to set their system clocks back than reprogramme. There were loads of contractors milking it for all it was worth....looking busy but not doing much.

    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    But (like the dot-com false promises) it was the advertisers that made the hype, not the IT professionals. I hope no-one is trying to pin any sort of hype on IT professionals (or scientists in the case of global warming), while absolving marketing (or Al Gore and other politicians)
    No false promise with the internet, its killing the daily newspapers. Advertising is shifting to the net. More and more commerce is conducted online. It has and continues to revolutionize the way we do business, think of how often you look up info and do transactions online... online sales +40% PA.

  4. #34

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    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    There are two major issues I have which underlie my 'contempt' for the way it’s all being handled.

    1) If pollution really is the cause as they seem to be indicating, then why aren't they placing massive taxes on low value but polluting items? (just rank them and work down the list) No, they'd rather do token gestures and put a punitive tax on air travel.
    That annoys me too. Like the rock concerts that waste all sort of energy to raise 'awareness'. Talk about hypocritical.

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    2) Even if you boil less water a day or anything else... it’s going to make sod all difference compared to India and China's contribution as they come on stream.
    Well. I think that'll be a while yet. The West, in particular the U.S., is responsible for the majority of what exists. We can't really expect China and India to not become industrialized, when we've already enjoyed the benefits.

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    Lastly, nobody is actually acting on global warming (not to a degree that’s going to make a difference).
    There are people looking for fuel alternatives. Replace the gasoline that goes into all the cars in the world with low-emission alternatives, compatible with current engines, and comparable in cost (it could happen, really ), and you'll have something.

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    Nothing actually happened and many companies were unprepared, it was just easier to set their system clocks back than reprogramme. There were loads of contractors milking it for all it was worth....looking busy but not doing much.
    Not surprising actually.

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    No false promise with the internet, its killing the daily newspapers. Advertising is shifting to the net. More and more commerce is conducted online. It has and continues to revolutionize the way we do business, think of how often you look up info and do transactions online... online sales +40% PA.
    I was referring to the near instant riches from dot-com's, not the promise of progress from the internet itself.
    Last edited by ygolo; 09-09-2007 at 09:32 AM. Reason: This page should really use the same code for previews as it does for posts

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  5. #35
    Senior Member Veneti's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    Well. I think that'll be a while yet. The West, in particular the U.S., is responsible for the majority of what exists. We can't really expect China and India to not become industrialized, when we've already enjoyed the benefits.
    China has surpassed the US in emissions very recently. It was in the press.
    China is building 2 coal powered fire stations A WEEK. I've been in southern china around an economic zone... sheeze... talk about air pollution.

    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    There are people looking for fuel alternatives. Replace the gasoline that goes into all the cars in the world with low-emission alternatives, compatible with current engines, and comparable in cost (it could happen, really ), and you'll have something.
    I think the oil companies are not focused on alternative fuels seeing as they own the oil in the ground. I believe they have been buying patents... probably to slow the progress.

    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    I was referring to the near instant riches from dot-com's, not the promise of progress from the internet itself.
    Ok, you'll notice when a market is close to peaking there's always a surge of public offerings. Whether its shares, .com's, property developments ... its all the same. Its actually a sign to get out while you can...

  6. #36

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    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    China has surpassed the US in emissions very recently. It was in the press.
    China is building 2 coal powered fire stations A WEEK. I've been in southern china around an economic zone... sheeze... talk about air pollution.
    I wasn't aware of that (must have been in a cave or something). Still emissions are different from total contribution to pollution (over time).

    I wonder if you would be in favor of cutting down on pollution for it's own sake (climate change or not).

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    I think the oil companies are not focused on alternative fuels seeing as they own the oil in the ground. I believe they have been buying patents... probably to slow the progress.
    But there are others (universities, crackpot friends of mine). Not that means anything, but Edison, Tesla, and Ford were among the biggest crackpots of their time. Crackpots helped fuel this pollution, maybe they can curb it too.

    (Note to self. Attend next Inventor's Alliance meeting)

    Quote Originally Posted by Veneti View Post
    Ok, you'll notice when a market is close to peaking there's always a surge of public offerings. Whether its shares, .com's, property developments ... its all the same. Its actually a sign to get out while you can...
    [/QUOTE]

    Define surge. Distinguish from legitimate boom. Would you advise not to ride strong up-trends at all?

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  7. #37
    Senior Member htb's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Uberfuhrer View Post
    That's the smartest thing I've read all week! (I should have read that months ago.)
    All greens have a recurring nightmare: the Son of Man will come again and announce that burning fossils fuels to build capital is a sacrament.

  8. #38
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    All the arguments aside. This is a particular interest of mine, and something I'm starting a career in, so that's your grain of salt. Admission: I only skimmed the thread. Keep that in mind when you rip me apart. Thanks!

    (1) Most of the ways people deal with this are talking and not acting, particularly the rock concerts that were mentioned. But if everyone did seriously just use fluorescent lightbulbs instead of incandescent - that's actually quite a lot from a little. So the energy wasted on a rock concert - IF it worked - is worth it. Energy efficiency is like voting. Nobody does much, but it's all in the aggregate. Unfortunately, we live in a world where talk/appearance rules over action.

    (2) There is scientific consensus and there is a reason there's consensus. Scientists are trained to look at data, first and foremost, and the climate change models that people are computing are consistent with the temperature rises since people started burning fossil fuels. Of course, these are complicated computations and I don't do simulations, but assuming they have their basics right (and considering how much money there is to be made attacking these simulations - I buy it) then there's reason to think it might be right.
    And! I know the models are simplified. But there's a reason to develop better computers. Fluid dynamics and global modeling are some of the nastiest systems to solve. If anyone is familiar with Lorenz's butterfly, here's a moment to consider it.
    NB: Yes, there have been similar rises in the past. Yes, it could be natural. It also might not be. And either way, it's not good for humans.

    (3) Those of you who mentioned China and India are spot-on. That's what's really scary, and also murky in terms of value. Is it the right of those in the West to say don't develop 'cause we already screwed up the world? No. Which is why we need more money/effort towards developing better technology so that development doesn't need to add to our carbon count. There are studies in progress and there is work being done jointly with those countries, but not enough. This is a great place to really contribute...

    (4) Maybe for a lot of people it is like religion. It shouldn't be. It's a simple cost-benefit analysis. If it's wrong, and the earth is heating up naturally, it's bad for us and there's nothing we can do. If it's right, then there is something we can do. Better to take action and be wrong than to do nothing and fry because we were stupid.

  9. #39
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  10. #40
    no clinkz 'til brooklyn Nocapszy's Avatar
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    Well if a few doubters have given up the fight, then it absolutely has to be true.

    Good find Lateralus.
    we fukin won boys

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