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  1. #1
    Let's make this showy! raz's Avatar
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    Default Random math question for you

    Okay. I'm completing an action 5 times. Each time I complete the action, it has a 50% chance of having the result that I want. My goal is to achieve the desired result twice. What is the percentage chance that that I will achieve the desired result twice after completing the action 5 times?


  2. #2
    Senior Member Qre:us's Avatar
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    Binomial Probability: P(X = 2) = 0.3125 thus, multiply by 100 = 31.25% chance
    Cumulative Probability: P(X < 2) = 0.1875
    Cumulative Probability: P(X < and/or = 2) = 0.5
    Cumulative Probability: P(X > 2) = 0.5
    Cumulative Probability: P(X > and/or = 2) = 0.8125

    Edit: am I doing your homework for you?

  3. #3
    THREADKILLER Prototype's Avatar
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    No replies!...Are people afraid of being wrong?... I want to say 33% off the top of my head..
    ... They say that knowledge is free, and to truly acquire wisdom always comes with a price... Well then,... That will be $10, please!

  4. #4
    にゃん runvardh's Avatar
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    only twice, or at least twice?
    Dreams are best served manifest and tangible.

    INFP, 6w7, IEI

    I accept no responsibility, what so ever, for the fact that I exist; I do, however, accept full responsibility for what I do while I exist.

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  5. #5
    Let's make this showy! raz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qre:us View Post
    Binomial Probability: P(X = 2) = 0.3125 thus, multiply by 100 = 31.25% chance
    Cumulative Probability: P(X < 2) = 0.1875
    Cumulative Probability: P(X < and/or = 2) = 0.5
    Cumulative Probability: P(X > 2) = 0.5
    Cumulative Probability: P(X > and/or = 2) = 0.8125

    Edit: am I doing your homework for you?
    No. You're not doing my homework. Let me elaborate on why the question is here. It's taken from Pokemon actually. I've been playing it a lot lately, and been doing a lot of things that are just left up to doing something over and over relying on probability. I was doing something today and it sparked some curiosity.

    I'm breeding Pokemon in the game. They have a nature attribute that I care a lot about. There are 25 possible natures, and with certain conditions, you can raise the possibility of it having the nature you want to 50%. So, I'm sitting here hatching Pokemon eggs over and over again until I have a certain amount of Pokemon I want with the nature that I want. If I have 5 Pokemon eggs and I only need 2 of them to have the nature I want, but each one has a 50% chance to have it, what is the chance of me having 2 Pokemon of the nature I want after hatching all 5 eggs?

    There's where the question originated.


  6. #6
    Occasional Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by raz View Post
    Okay. I'm completing an action 5 times. Each time I complete the action, it has a 50% chance of having the result that I want. My goal is to achieve the desired result twice. What is the percentage chance that that I will achieve the desired result twice after completing the action 5 times?
    I'm assuming more than 2 times is okay too.

    So you're basically asking for 1 minus the chances that it will happen 0 times or 1 time.

    chances it will happen exactly 1 time: 5*1/2^5 = 5/32
    chances it will happen 0 times: 1/2^5 = 1/32
    chances it won't happen 1 or 0 times: 1-(5/32+1/32) = 26/32

    i think.

  7. #7
    にゃん runvardh's Avatar
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    At least twice you're looking at 4 occurances out of 6 possible outcomes, so around 66 or 67%.
    Dreams are best served manifest and tangible.

    INFP, 6w7, IEI

    I accept no responsibility, what so ever, for the fact that I exist; I do, however, accept full responsibility for what I do while I exist.

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  8. #8
    Occasional Member Evan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by runvardh View Post
    At least twice you're looking at 4 occurances out of 6 possible outcomes, so around 66 or 67%.
    huh?

    There are 32 possible sequences of 5 coin flips (which is equivalent to what he's talking about). One of those sequences has 0 heads. Five of them have 1 heads. The rest have two or more heads. 81.25%

  9. #9
    Senior Member Qre:us's Avatar
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    Have none of you people done Finite/Statistics in highschool? This is highschool level bullshit.


    Binomial probability - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Mathwords: Binomial Probability Formula

  10. #10
    THREADKILLER Prototype's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Qre:us View Post
    Have none of you people done Finite/Statistics in highschool? This is highschool level bullshit.
    Ya...I wrote poetry instead!
    ... They say that knowledge is free, and to truly acquire wisdom always comes with a price... Well then,... That will be $10, please!

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