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Thread: Is Obama Really Going to Win?

  1. #501
    Senior Member Array ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kuranes View Post
    Ouch.
    I meant to post this earlier, regarding why I think the poll overstates Obama currently:

    Bradley effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


    The problem with systemic bias is that multiple slight edges add up to huge amounts, especially if the odds of each are terribly close to 50%. In quick mental math, I think Obama has a good 95%+ chance to win given very fixed variables..

    The problem, though, is that they arent fixed at the current rates. For any loss he has elsewhere, he has to make up more of it in the swing states. If the systemic bias causes faltering in the previous set ones, the chances of him winning drop dramatically - I'd guesstimate about 60% or so - all for a few percent off the polls, so long as it is off every single poll.

    (I still concur with the 85% chance of Obama winning, and 25% chance of a 370+ electoral votes odds, however. )

  2. #502
    Senior Member Array Lateralus's Avatar
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    I think Obama will win, possibly even by a landslide. And I actually don't think that, alone, will matter much. What really, really worries me is the possibility of a filibuster-proof Senate. I would feel the same way if it was the Republicans. Neither party can be trusted with that much power.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  3. #503
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    I meant to post this earlier, regarding why I think the poll overstates Obama currently:

    Bradley effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
    I've heard that what typically happens (and what occurred in the New Hampshire primaries) is the people who say they are going to vote for the black candidate actually DO vote for the black candidate, but that uncommitted voters (who might have feared being thought a racist if they answered honestly) end up voting for the non-black candidate.

    This year's polls have consistently listed Obama's support as approximately 50% of voters for the past few weeks, so I don't think the above scenario is very likely. The major potential issue is the expanded definition of likely voter that has been used in the polls this year. Polls using the traditional definition (which takes past voting into account) tend to show that the race is within the margin of error. What I'd like to know is whether the polls utilizing the new formula were the same as those which were famously unreliable in the Democratic primaries.

    Whatever the outcome, I personally think its going to suck; either a candidate I'm highly opposed to will win, or else my preferred candidates wins and half the country is convinced the results are fraudulent due to an untested new polling formula.

  4. #504
    Senior Member Array ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    This year's polls have consistently listed Obama's support as approximately 50% of voters for the past few weeks, so I don't think the above scenario is very likely. The major potential issue is the expanded definition of likely voter that has been used in the polls this year. Polls using the traditional definition (which takes past voting into account) tend to show that the race is within the margin of error. What I'd like to know is whether the polls utilizing the new formula were the same as those which were famously unreliable in the Democratic primaries.
    I agree, I don't think it will be too significant... but the problem is that multiple "not too much of a change" near the shift points can make a big difference overall. Even if you assume that 50/45/5 was the general mix of the population, a systemic preference for the 5 to be really 50/48/2 to make what looks like a solid 5 point gap for Obama into a very weak 2 point gap. So when predicting the outcome based on 7-8 states that are similar, a 5 point gap add sup to a huge advantage. A 2 point gap... not even close to the same.

    However, given what I'm seeing now, I don't think it will be a close race. I'd be shocked if it was. I expect a relatively strong win by Obama (I agree with the prediction markets here too at 90+% now), but am not so confident in 100+ electoral votes.

  5. #505
    Wannabe genius Array Splittet's Avatar
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    It's really hard to imagine anything but an Obama win at this point, the Obama campaign even has the best ground game. Even if all the undecideds voted for McCain Obama would win - his lead is that significant. That's my mind speaking. Still there is some irrational fear for things to somehow get screwed up. I can't wait for history to happen tomorrow, and the deal finally being sealed. The world will be very relieved to get rid of any traces of Bush and the Republican Party in the White House.
    "Neither a lofty degree of intelligence nor imagination nor both together go to the making of genius. Love, love, love, that is the soul of genius." - Wolfgang Amad Mozart

  6. #506
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    Quote Originally Posted by Splittet View Post
    It's really hard to imagine anything but an Obama win at this point, the Obama campaign even has the best ground game. Even if all the undecideds voted for McCain Obama would win - his lead is that significant. That's my mind speaking. Still there is some irrational fear for things to somehow get screwed up. I can't wait for history to happen tomorrow, and the deal finally being sealed. The world will be very relieved to get rid of any traces of Bush and the Republican Party in the White House.
    It's not an irrational fear, it's called a realistic possible outcome. I have to agree that I have not trusted the polling data at all. There have been quite a few polls recently that show Mccain to be tied with Obama, or within the margin of error. I do not trust the mainstream media and their polling, nor do I trust their polling sample (i.e., what percentage of democrats and republicans participate in those things). But we shall see who wins. It's never over until it's over, unlike the bias media would have you believe. Sigh.

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    Senior Member Array ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    It's never over until it's over, unlike the bias media would have you believe. Sigh.
    Heh, funny, I would of said the media was doing the opposite this time. *shrug*

    But that's why there has to be a vote! So, for sure, we'll see.

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    Senior Member Array Noel's Avatar
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    I may be bested in battle, but I shall never be defeated.

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    If Obama sidled up to the podium at his victory speech, put his hand down his pants, and said, "Excuse me while I whip this out," I'd briefly celebrate his victory.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  10. #510
    Minister of Propagandhi Array ajblaise's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pure_mercury View Post
    If Obama sidled up to the podium at his victory speech, put his hand down his pants, and said, "Excuse me while I whip this out," I'd briefly celebrate his victory.
    Yeah, he sure is sexy isn't he merc?

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