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  1. #491
    Senior Membrane spirilis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misty_Mountain_Rose View Post
    Everyone above keeps saying he's going to 'win by a landslide'. They thought that about Kerry too in 2004. This overconfidence is what put Bonehead Bush back into office again hehehe.

    I'm still nervous that McCain may swing the extra votes he needs.
    I think the point many are making here is, based on polls and prediction markets, the overconfidence in 2004 wasn't quite justified, but right now it is.

    I hope they're right.
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  2. #492
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    I think the pubbies are mostly banking on Palin. They figure McCain probably won't last two terms, therefore the race is actually Obama vs. Palin.

    That's a far sexier matchup, if you ask me.

  3. #493
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misty_Mountain_Rose View Post
    Everyone above keeps saying he's going to 'win by a landslide'. They thought that about Kerry too in 2004. This overconfidence is what put Bonehead Bush back into office again hehehe.

    I'm still nervous that McCain may swing the extra votes he needs.
    Why does this keep coming up? Bush wasn't behind in the polls or prediction markets in the months leading up to the election. Bush was clearly favored the month before the election. I don't know what was reported in the states, but a lot of internationals rolled their eyes when the polls reversed themselves. This was clearly reflected in the gambling/prediction markets too, pretty much the best way to get aggregate data expressed.

    That's not to say things can't change. When people go to vote, they vote the familiar. Polls don't reflect that as much (hence why I believe the landslide is somewhat overstated).

    It is not, however, comparable to 2004 in any way. The platforms, the characters/psychology, the polls, the predicition markets... they are all widely divergent.

    Here's some decent data:
    Election 2004 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections

  4. #494
    Senior Member kuranes's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by toonia View Post
    I think Obama is going to have a landslide victory in the popular vote. He will have at least a significant win in the electoral college. He will win both significantly, but the popular vote will be more extremely in his favor.
    I hope that people don't take it for granted, and become complacent, seeing these "polls". I was actually working the phones yesterday in a Democratic HQ in a mostly Republican county in Illinois.

    Quote Originally Posted by NoahFence View Post
    Was just talking about this last night. I personally think it's because most of those who have been such staunch followers of the right, even when the ideals they claim are not in fact followed, have difficulty letting go at this point......... Much easier to keep hating and cling to that bitter anger.
    Yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    That's not to say things can't change. When people go to vote, they vote the familiar. Polls don't reflect that as much (hence why I believe the landslide is somewhat overstated).
    Ouch.
    Quote Originally Posted by Hmm View Post
    I already bet Edahn once and clobbered him. Too bad there is no Bookie feature on here.
    Something to talk to FC and Dr. H about....I could see Hustler and other "forum gamblers" with an entirely new channel for betting and "risk adjusting" ...on debate results, world affairs, concepts etc.
    "The people can always be brought to the bidding of the leaders. That is easy. All you have to do is tell them that they are being attacked and denounce the peacemakers for lack of patriotism, and exposing the country to danger. It works the same in any country."
    Reichsfuhrer Herman Goering at the Nuremburg trials.

  5. #495
    darkened dreams labyrinthine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Misty_Mountain_Rose View Post
    Everyone above keeps saying he's going to 'win by a landslide'. They thought that about Kerry too in 2004. This overconfidence is what put Bonehead Bush back into office again hehehe.

    I'm still nervous that McCain may swing the extra votes he needs.
    I agree in the importance of not becoming complacent and strongly support early voting (which I have done), but this scenario does not compare to Kerry. I never heard the suggestion of a landslide in Kerry's favor. The Republicans were fairly successful in denigrating Kerry's military record which they now hold as off limits in an election since they have a war hero running. (I agree that it should be off limits in both cases.) I was impressed with Kerry's sincerity and dignity in how he handled his loss. Kerry had very little social charisma while Obama is loaded with it. One of the reasons that the first time I saw Obama it struck me that he would eventually be president is because in the last two elections the country has been waiting for a reason to vote Democrat, but didn't have a candidate that could rally and inspire like Obama is doing now.

    I live in a swing state that has McCain signs planted everywhere and both candidates came here the same weekend. McCain drew 1k and Obama drew 45K. The numbers in crowds that are coming out to hear him speak could represent fairly well the people willing to come out and vote. From the stats I've read, McCain has to win every swing state in order to win the electoral college and Obama has at least a single digit lead in the polls in almost all the swing states. I do appreciate that Obama's campaign is not supporting the idea of complacency because every vote has an important impact, even beyond electing Obama. The stronger his win, the stronger the overall support of his policies for change.
    Step into my metaphysical room of mirrors.

  6. #496
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    Quote Originally Posted by toonia View Post
    The stronger his win, the stronger the overall support of his policies for change.
    Change to what exactly?

  7. #497
    Senior Member Eileen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Change to what exactly?
    Among plenty of things:
    taxes
    education
    health care
    foreign policy, potentially


    Some people want to say that Barack Obama is just waving around the word "change" like he hasn't suggested anything. He is the one who actually talked about his policies in the debates. You've had 20 months to listen to the man, who has pretty unswervingly stuck to his propositions. If you don't know what change he's talking about now, it's because you haven't been listening.
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    "I can never be what I ought to be until you are what you ought to be. You can never be what you ought to be until I am what I ought to be. This is the interrelated structure of reality." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

  8. #498
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eileen View Post
    Among plenty of things:
    taxes
    education
    health care
    foreign policy, potentially


    Some people want to say that Barack Obama is just waving around the word "change" like he hasn't suggested anything. He is the one who actually talked about his policies in the debates. You've had 20 months to listen to the man, who has pretty unswervingly stuck to his propositions. If you don't know what change he's talking about now, it's because you haven't been listening.
    Rather, I was insinuating many do not understand exactly WHAT changes he is going to make. At least you can identify some general areas he's going to "change", though I wonder why you didn't say anything specific because a change in taxes could either mean more taxes, less taxes, change in tax code, etc. Telling me what areas he's going to change without telling me precisely WHAT he is going to do differently tells me absolutely nothing.

  9. #499
    Senior Member Eileen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Rather, I was insinuating many do not understand exactly WHAT changes he is going to make. At least you can identify some general areas he's going to "change", though I wonder why you didn't say anything specific because a change in taxes could either mean more taxes, less taxes, change in tax code, etc. Telling me what areas he's going to change without telling me precisely WHAT he is going to do differently tells me absolutely nothing.
    Well, if you would listen, or go read, you'd find those things out. Your question seems to be basically rhetorical, as if you are implying that the man has not actually explained what he wants to do, when in fact he has.
    INFJ

    "I can never be what I ought to be until you are what you ought to be. You can never be what you ought to be until I am what I ought to be. This is the interrelated structure of reality." -Martin Luther King, Jr.

  10. #500
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    Quote Originally Posted by Eileen View Post
    Well, if you would listen, or go read, you'd find those things out. Your question seems to be basically rhetorical, as if you are implying that the man has not actually explained what he wants to do, when in fact he has.
    I said it once, I'll say it again, "I was insinuating many do not understand exactly WHAT changes he is going to make" i.e., many of the the people who are voting for him don't know for themselves just what "changes" he would make. I've seen you give some specifics in other threads though.

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