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Thread: Is Obama Really Going to Win?

  1. #481
    Oberon
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    But if Obama wins, it will prove that whatever oppression remains is not an insurmountable obstacle to whatever an individual of color wishes to achieve.

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    Senior Member Array Eileen's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    But if Obama wins, it will prove that whatever oppression remains is not an insurmountable obstacle to whatever an individual of color wishes to achieve.
    This is more complicated than you would like to believe.
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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    But if Obama wins, it will prove that whatever oppression remains is not an insurmountable obstacle to whatever an individual of color wishes to achieve.
    lol....
    Nothing's insurmountable.
    But some things are rare and hard as hell.

    I think we're talking about "realistic level of opportunity," not whether something is technically feasible.

    Similar example: People climb Everest without supplemental oxygen, but not many... and even ones that train hard sometimes just don't have the natural biology to survive up there.

    And just "succeeding" in society should not be like climbing Mt. Everest.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

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  4. #484
    Oberon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    lol....
    Nothing's insurmountable.
    But some things are rare and hard as hell.

    I think we're talking about "realistic level of opportunity," not whether something is technically feasible.

    Similar example: People climb Everest without supplemental oxygen, but not many... and even ones that train hard sometimes just don't have the natural biology to survive up there.

    And just "succeeding" in society should not be like climbing Mt. Everest.
    This is true. But from my perspective, there are a great many black Americans who have achieved a great deal more than I have. By that I mean real achievement, not just socioeconomic status, although the same is true in terms of socioeconomic status as well.

    Knowing me, who I am, where I work, and how I live, thinking of myself as "the Man" requires rather more suspension of disbelief than I can manage. You say that "...just 'succeeding' in society should not be like climbing Mt. Everest." But it is for me.

    As far as "realistic levels of opportunity," in my industry and in my region we appear to have achieved it. To a large degree, I owe my current position to having been a protege of sorts to Mr. J and Mrs. M, one of whom is in line to be plant manager at a drug manufacturing plant in eastern NC, and the other of whom is starting her own consulting business after years as a successful project manager for big pharma. Both Mr. J and Mrs. M are black.

    The person I'm currently training to replace me in my present position, prior to me taking up my new position, is also black. Ms. W is sharp, conscientious, meticulous, and more organized than I am (which of course doesn't take much), and I am glad to see her stepping into the role.

    What this tells me is that, here in North Carolina, a place where you would expect racism to linger, business does not care about the color of a person's skin. What they care about is if they get the job done. Black or white doesn't matter; if you're effective at your job, you're gold. That's what "equal opportunity" means.

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    darkened dreams Array labyrinthine's Avatar
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    Based in part on the polls, but moreso on the numbers in crowds Obama is attracting vs. the numbers McCain is attracting, seeing the numbers of prominent Republicans coming out to endorse Obama, and using my own impressions of what I understand about people and how they would react to what Obama says, I think Obama is going to have a landslide victory in the popular vote. He will have at least a significant win in the electoral college. He will win both significantly, but the popular vote will be more extremely in his favor.

    I'm curious to see if my impressions are correct or not after election day.

    Edit: I lived in Illinois back in 2002-2005 and saw Obama as a senator there. My first impression of him was that he was going to be president because of his charisma, although I withheld a favorable impression because charisma always makes me extra cautious. When some Libertarians friends of mine who actively follow politics liked him, then I thought he might be something of a centerist, which I think is important when leading a diverse and complex group of people. What is most needed in the leader of the free world is the ability to see multiple points of view and incorporate these into the large picture. That is what I see in Obama so far after reading into politics more than I ever have before for this election. I feel badly for people who are so afraid of him because he is going to win and that is likely going to be a good thing.
    Quote Originally Posted by Grand Admiral Crunch View Post
    It might be fine for some people, but I rather not live in a world where people think it is okay for dolphins to rape each other.

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    Senior Member Array ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by toonia View Post
    I feel badly for people who are so afraid of him because he is going to win and that is likely going to be a good thing.
    Libertarians aside, I actually find this rather soothing, given the voting patterns of the past.

    Obama once answered a question about what he would be like as a president, or some such, and answered that people should watch his campaign. I have watched it, and I'm impressed. He came from behind, almost out of nowhere... I don't know if he started behind the eight ball because of his race... I don't know if he started behind because he's not as rich as the other presidential hopefuls... but what I do know is that he did come behind and took on the democractic nomination, and won, then took on the republicans, and appears to be in the position to win (as you say, likely by a landslide).

    That's enough for me to say he has the competence to be in the political field. I'd rather have him than McCain by nearly an order of magnitude. I have a lot of expats come through the office, and the comments are the same from every part of the world - how on earth is McCain even in the running? From the outside, the decision seems blindingly obvious. I think the polls are showing the same thing, now.

    It's really difficult to understand the fear that people have of him in the US, given the attitude I see everywhere else.

  7. #487
    Senior Member Array NoahFence's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ptgatsby View Post
    how on earth is McCain even in the running? From the outside, the decision seems blindingly obvious.
    Was just talking about this last night. I personally think it's because most of those who have been such staunch followers of the right, even when the ideals they claim are not in fact followed, have difficulty letting go at this point. If the people who have been overwhelmed by the message of fear and hate broadcasted by the other side were to recant, they'd then have to explain to themselves why they've been such assholes to people who didn't deserve it, why they've enabled the country to be hijacked by radical maniacs, and why the current state of things is, in essence, their fault. That's some bitter pill for yo ass. Much easier to keep hating and cling to that bitter anger.
    "I do not feel obliged to believe that the same God who has endowed us with sense, reason, and intellect has intended us to forgo their use." - Galileo

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    Quote Originally Posted by oberon View Post
    This is true. But from my perspective, there are a great many black Americans who have achieved a great deal more than I have.
    I'm not sure that is because they were wonderfully productive.

    (And that is not meant as a slam, but you know you're not ambitious or focused... nor do you much care to be in that sense. I have the same problems -- I am just like you but moreso, remember? Or something like that!)

    You say that "...just 'succeeding' in society should not be like climbing Mt. Everest." But it is for me.
    Well, by the same token, you should just work harder then, and be more disciplined.

    Culture definitely either favors the innovative person who shows up at the right time and place; but otherwise favors people in particular industries and skillsets. And some of the skillsets are easier for some groups of people to acquire, based on their starting life attributes.

    You have the technical skillsets but you don't care (by personality preference, upbringing, faith, and whatever else) to prioritize them in a way that will make you successful by society's standards.

    What this tells me is that, here in North Carolina, a place where you would expect racism to linger, business does not care about the color of a person's skin. What they care about is if they get the job done. Black or white doesn't matter; if you're effective at your job, you're gold. That's what "equal opportunity" means.
    I don't know if that's true; other people would claim opposing experiences.
    In many ways, it might be like the water near the beach: You can wade through some areas that are very cold, but suddenly stumble into an inexplicable pocket of warmer water [with no higher urine content than the surrounding waves]. It doesn't mean the ocean isn't generally cold.

    But we need others to log in to test that.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  9. #489
    Oberon
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I'm not sure that is because they were wonderfully productive.

    (And that is not meant as a slam, but you know you're not ambitious or focused... )

    ...you should just work harder then, and be more disciplined.

    Culture definitely either favors the innovative person who shows up at the right time and place; but otherwise favors people in particular industries and skillsets. And some of the skillsets are easier for some groups of people to acquire, based on their starting life attributes.

    You have the technical skillsets but you don't care (by personality preference, upbringing, faith, and whatever else) to prioritize them in a way that will make you successful by society's standards.
    Everything I've quoted from you is true. Still, in all of this, I'm looking hard for oppression and I'm just not seeing it.

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    Senior Member Array Misty_Mountain_Rose's Avatar
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    Everyone above keeps saying he's going to 'win by a landslide'. They thought that about Kerry too in 2004. This overconfidence is what put Bonehead Bush back into office again hehehe.

    I'm still nervous that McCain may swing the extra votes he needs.
    Embrace the possibilities.

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