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Thread: Is Obama Really Going to Win?

  1. #31
    Senior Member Array Anonymous's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by kyuuei View Post
    Off topic a wee bit but.. I wonder. If the people hopeful for all the change being advertised end up with Obama winning.. Will there be outrage and disappointment if the things promised are not delivered, or at least on a good solid track for delivery?
    I'd be fucking amazed if he can deliver anything, what with us being in 10 trillion dollars of debt. Won't stop me from voting for him, though, since I think he can do far better with the current situation than McCain.

    As for the probability of Obama winning, these guys seem to be pretty careful about their survey analyses: FiveThirtyEight.com: Electoral Projections Done Right currently predicting that there's 93% chance of him winning.

  2. #32

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    Bradley effect - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    The Bradley effect, less commonly called the Wilder effect,[1][2] is a proposed explanation for observed discrepancies between voter opinion polls and election outcomes in some American political campaigns when a white candidate and a non-white candidate run against each other.[3][4][5] Named for Tom Bradley, an African-American who lost the 1982 California governor's race despite being ahead in some voter polls, the Bradley effect refers to an alleged tendency on the part of some voters to tell pollsters that they are undecided or likely to vote for a black candidate, and yet, on election day, vote for his/her white opponent.

    The theory of the Bradley effect is that the inaccurate polls have been skewed by the phenomenon of social desirability bias.[6][7] Specifically, some white voters give inaccurate polling responses for fear that, by stating their true preference, they will open themselves to criticism of racial motivation. The reluctance to give accurate polling answers has sometimes extended to post-election exit polls as well. The race of the pollster conducting the interview may factor in to voters' answers.

    Some analysts have dismissed the theory of the Bradley effect as "baseless",[8] while others argue that it may have existed in past elections, but not in more recent ones. One analysis of 133 senate and gubernatorial elections between 1989 and 2006 suggests that "before 1996, the median gap for black candidates was 3.1 percentage points, while for subsequent years it was -0.3 percentage points."[9]

    Similar effects have been posited in other contexts, notably the Shy Tory Factor and spiral of silence.

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  3. #33
    It's always something... Array PuddleRiver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by heart View Post
    Ask Diebold...
    Yep, we're already having some issues with the voting machines in my state. The voter votes for Obama and the vote goes for McCain. The same for Senate. The voter votes for Rockefeller and the vote goes for Jay Wolfe.
    My hubby and I went to vote Saturday but the polls were closed when we got there. It is supposed to be open from 9 to 5 on Saturday, we tried twice but no go either time. WTH?

    I'll be voting paper ballot, like always.
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  4. #34
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllAboutSoul View Post
    Yep, we're already having some issues with the voting machines in my state. The voter votes for Obama and the vote goes for McCain. The same for Senate. The voter votes for Rockefeller and the vote goes for Jay Wolfe.
    My hubby and I went to vote Saturday but the polls were closed when we got there. It is supposed to be open from 9 to 5 on Saturday, we tried twice but no go either time. WTH?

    I'll be voting paper ballot, like always.
    Democrats will always complain about voting, as they always have, because they're sore losers.

  5. #35

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    Quote Originally Posted by kyuuei View Post
    Off topic a wee bit but.. I wonder. If the people hopeful for all the change being advertised end up with Obama winning.. Will there be outrage and disappointment if the things promised are not delivered, or at least on a good solid track for delivery?
    I don't know. How do conservatives react to the past eight years of Bush?
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  6. #36
    Minister of Propagandhi Array ajblaise's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Democrats will always complain about voting, as they always have, because they're sore losers.
    Yeah seriously. Fuck voter fraud investigation!

  7. #37
    It's always something... Array PuddleRiver's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    Democrats will always complain about voting, as they always have, because they're sore losers.
    Ok then, I'll just do another broad generalization about Republicans always trying to win by keeping people's votes from counting. Come up with some new material, this is getting old.
    "In the depth of winter, I finally learned that within me there lay one invincible summer."
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  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by AllAboutSoul View Post
    Ok then, I'll just do another broad generalization about Republicans always trying to win by keeping people's votes from counting. Come up with some new material, this is getting old.
    No, your argument is quite old. DECADES old I'd say. Don't make me bring up Acorn and all the voter fraud they're involved with, for the DEMOCRAT side.

  9. #39
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    Quote Originally Posted by Risen View Post
    No, your argument is quite old. DECADES old I'd say. Don't make me bring up Acorn and all the voter fraud they're involved with, for the DEMOCRAT side.
    Voter fraud is voter fraud, no matter which side does it.

  10. #40
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    Quote Originally Posted by heart View Post
    Voter fraud is voter fraud, no matter which side does it.
    Agreed. It is amazing how polarizing politics always makes people. Three party system FTW...

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