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  1. #1
    Senior Member Atomic Fiend's Avatar
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    Exclamation Hurricane Season: Should you leave? Yeah, but can you?

    As of now Hurricane Irma is a catagory five. Not only a catagory five but the strongest storm ever recorded in the the Atlantic Basin with 185 mph winds, however, it still not supposed to make Landfall in the US and where I am, and several other members in Florida, until Sunday. Most projections show it will, but these things can change on a whim.

    The first thing that usually comes up when "Why don't you evacuate? Why didn't those people evacuate?" well if you're going to want me to tell you that everyone has a different reason, I won't because that's not the case. Often times it's only one of three stories; 1. It's a futile gesture, 2. Lack Feasible Means, or 3. Ran Out of Time to do so

    1. It's a futile gesture. I've been through every storm that has hit south Florida since Hurricane Andrew in 1992, that years birthday gift, ( it formed on my birthday of that year). My mom hunkered up in a house and suffered it when I was still recovering from injuries from a traumatic event completely unrelated to the events to this post. It's very common for people however to hunker down for less powerful storms, like Tropical Storms and Cat 1-2 storms. If they have a house and some shutters, and get an early enough start one can clear the yard of debris and store everything safely and not worry about anything wrong happening. However when you get into the 3-5s the third thing that happens, after stores sell off their stock extremely fast and gas stations are pumped dry is that the highways and turnpikes become untraversable. Every time this happens. Unless one leaves before they're even certain a storm will hit, they don't have much of a chance of getting very far because those freeways become parking lots, and those parked cars can be where you'll be for the duration of the storm. However some people do manage to get pretty far and to where they want to stay for the duration. Sometimes this works, but many times this doesn't because while hurricanes are easy to predict and see coming, they're also really fucking unpredictable and often people are hit with hurricane they were trying to avoid while the place they evacuated from remains hurricane free.

      An Example of this was last years Hurricane Matthew. We were cautioned by the state to evacuate under no uncertain terms, we were told by weather outlets that the storm would in fact kill us in the city I was located.

      I didn't evacuate simply because I Lacked Feasible Means to do so. I stayed inside and waited, and spoke to @<a href="http://www.typologycentral.com/forums/members/1449.html" target="_blank">Magic Poriferan</a> and others on Facebook waiting for the inevitable power outtage and the internet to go down, and it never did. Where did it hit? Further up North where everyone who tries to flee Storms in Florida, have no choice but to go. There's only one way out of Florida if you coudn't tell after all. But that's just one time right? Well let's go back to 2004 Charlie, where the storm was reportidly supposed to hit Tampa, and everyone shoved that down idea down those guys in that cities throats just like Matthew was to us last year. It was a Catagory 4 and it completely missed where it was forecasted to make landfall at, and instead it hit... further up North (With far less power then originally believed too) in Orlando. Same thing happened that year with another storm I think Jeanie. You can't be sure that you're not just taking a very expensive trip into more misery is what I'm saying.

      If you leave early, you risk just being hit in a different place. If you wait you risk not being able to evacuate at all, and you might as well just stay your ass at home.
    2. Lack Feasible Means This one is pretty self evident so I'm going to keep it short. Some people don't have money, or a truck to take things, or they have a large family that they can't afford to take away from where they currently are. They don't have anywhere to go, or any idea of how to get to there if they did know. It's very simple reason, and I find that most people who don't go simply can't go. So those people hunker down in their homes and wait for the worst, while hoping for the best.
    3. Ran Out of Time Another self evident one. People have jobs that they can't call out of. When I was informed of Matthew I was living under a rock, in that I wasn't really paying attention to anything as I was in a depressive stupor from my constant and reptitive yet oddly stressful Job. I knew of it, but I didn't know when it was hitting, and as such I found out much too late to do anything about it, much less evacuate. I was working at a school and after being told and getting the children out early I had about a day and half to do what I needed to do before presumably bending over to let Matthew have it's way with me. I did the necessary preparations, even by some miracle getting gas and water before hunkering down in the place I was staying and... it never came.


    The most important one of these is the first point. In the case of the upcoming storm however, even the first point is rendered moot, because the storm is projected to literally go right up through Florida on a verticle path hitting the entire state. So if you live in Florida, unless you leave the state of Florida entirely, you're getting hit by Irma, there is no evading it. Don't bother getting in your car and gettng on the highway, because those road ways will be parking lots, and that road will be where you're staying for not just the hurricane but quite some time afterwards. If you're particullarly unlucky and it maintains all of it's power or even a good fraction of it, that roadway will be your grave. There are Millions of people with the same idea. They're all on the turnpike, they're all on I-95, they're all trying to get out at the same time.

    Good news, this storm is moving, so as of now it's not slow or going to hover in one place so it's likely. Hopefully that doesn't change, but what that means is, we probably won't be flooded to Death like Harvey did to Texas. The winds are still... absolutely monterious though at 185mph. That's frightening it of itself. However as I've said before these tend to slow down as the storms approach land.


  2. #2
    Senior Member Trash Panda's Avatar
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    Not expected to have a problem where I am (gulf side, mid fl) likely here it'll just be crazy wind and loss of power, which still sucks but hopefully it doesn't last long and our crappy windows don't all shatter.
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  3. #3
    Senior Member tinker683's Avatar
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    I live in NE Florida and we're all nervous up here. I bought a bunch of plywood and have stocked up on supplies. We don't know what it's going to be like when it gets to us, but I've already been talking to my aunt who lives out in west Texas about coming to visit

    We'll see.
    "The man who is swimming against the stream knows the strength of it."
    ― Woodrow Wilson
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  4. #4
    Rainy Day Woman MDP2525's Avatar
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    Once you prepare there's not much to do but wait it out and see what happens. I have offered for friends on tbe coast to come inland to stay with me. People are really freaking out (for some reason about THIS hurricane when we go through this like once a year in FL!) and I attribute that to seeing what just happened to TX.
    ~luck favors the ready~


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  5. #5
    Expensive Handbasket Redbone's Avatar
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    Native Floridian but stuck () out in the PNW for now.

    I remember Andrew and how it completely destroyed Homestead. It never fails to amaze me how people in south Florida can strip the stores bare as soon as you say, "hurr...". But if you go through one, you don't ever forget it.

    I also remember Floyd and what it did to I-10. I knew so many people that evacuated only to sit, sit, and sit on there. Now the governor has the power to turn the eastbound to westbound...pretty sure it would still be a mess.

    I've been through enough close calls to take it seriously. It's just a matter of knowing what's possible in your area--do you live where it's possible to ride it out or if you should just gtfo. Since I was always one check away from broke (still there!) I would buy supplies little by little. I'd start in May so by the height of the season, I had a good stash and didn't have to worry about trying to get stuff at the last minute. If nothing happened, we just ate/drank it.

    My family is still there in NE Florida, in Jax Beach and PV. They are headed for Atlanta.

    I agree...it's a hard call on knowing what to do. I figure if you jump through all these hoops and nothing happens, well, good! Spared!

    My thoughts will be with you all back home.
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  6. #6
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDP2525 View Post
    Once you prepare there's not much to do but wait it out and see what happens. I have offered for friends on tbe coast to come inland to stay with me. People are really freaking out (for some reason about THIS hurricane when we go through this like once a year in FL!) and I attribute that to seeing what just happened to TX.

    I think you are overlooking the fact that it is max category hurricane. What in my opinion is very important part of the equation.







    Btw it is reasonable to expect economic recession or other economic disruptions after all of this ?
    I mean Texas got hit hard, Puerto Rico got hit by Category 5 Hurricane, it seems Florida will be hit as well, some other hurricane throughout the season can make a landfall as well. Plus wild fire season in the California is fairly strong this year. I mean when you sum up all of that this could be a huge infrastructural damage and resource drainage that will be worth hundreds of billions. While hit areas will have decreased economic activity for at least few months.

  7. #7
    Senior Member tinker683's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    I think you are overlooking the fact that it is max category hurricane. What in my opinion is very important part of the equation.







    Btw it is reasonable to expect economic recession or other economic disruptions after all of this ?
    I mean Texas got hit hard, Puerto Rico got hit by Category 5 Hurricane, it seems Florida will be hit as well, some other hurricane throughout the season can make a landfall as well. Plus wild fire season in the California is fairly strong this year. I mean when you sum up all of that this could be a huge infrastructural damage and resource drainage that will be worth hundreds of billions. While hit areas will have decreased economic activity for at least few months.
    Not only that, but we are all aware of the reports from Barbuda and well over 90% of the structure on the island being flattened by this things. Irma is no joke an we don't want to wait too long and wind up getting stuck somewhere.
    "The man who is swimming against the stream knows the strength of it."
    ― Woodrow Wilson

  8. #8
    Rainy Day Woman MDP2525's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    I think you are overlooking the fact that it is max category hurricane. What in my opinion is very important part of the equation.
    Nope. Matthew was a 5, too. When it hit FL, it was a 4 tho but we weren't going to know that would happen. I'm just saying the response to this Hurricane is different than most when the facts aren't much different.

    Btw, I'm not saying don't prepare or take it seriously. Just attributing the higher general panic to be related more to TX than to the details of the storm. Next hurricane we get it ebbs and flows as to how ppl react. Just something I've noticed as a life-long, born and raised Floridian.
    ~luck favors the ready~


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  9. #9
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by MDP2525 View Post
    Nope. Matthew was a 5, too. When it hit FL, it was a 4 tho but we weren't going to know that would happen. I'm just saying the response to this Hurricane is different than most when the facts aren't much different.

    Btw, I'm not saying don't prepare or take it seriously. Just attributing the higher general panic to be related more to TX than to the details of the storm. Next hurricane we get it ebbs and flows as to how ppl react. Just something I've noticed as a life-long, born and raised Floridian.

    I think I am finally starting to realize what that "Rainy day woman" suppose to mean.
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  10. #10
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    Got a house in Naples I hope doesn't get flattened, won't be able to get to it until February. A lot of my neighbors down there are staying. Here's a bit of encouragement for any Florida peeps riding it out. Hope your homes are as ready as your souls:


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