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  1. #101

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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Perhaps, but here you have a few more variables. This east european union is defined as group of similar cultures not melting pot. In your duopoly you have two groups that don't really have a common goal, it is just that they live on the same piece of land. While here you actually have a few goals that apply on all countries.


    Therefore if trends continue the immigrant problem could become serious structural problem. What is one of the reasons why I claim from the start that this problem should have been solved in the countries of origin.
    I do agree with you on the final sentence, whether or not the english speaking world did set up the chaos as a second front or true front to keep the fighting from their home turf is debatable, there's also lots and lots of discussion about the role of the former FSB in manipulating national seperatists into political muslims in the territories closer to or within Russian spheres of influence and how that has fed into the global political muslim foment, along with displaced peoples from sub Saharan african and african war zones, in geo-political terms.

    However, I do think that the nations which dont want to deal with immigration and refugee waves need to commit forces to stabilising zones or at least stopping people trafficking, I'd support an EU force which would occupy the territories from which all the boats carrying people have been launched, whatever the reasons for it happening.

    I've heard about the eastern european states, principally Poland, becoming more powerful or pivotal, especially if the central EU nations are destabilised by a combination of migration and internal nationalism, but I dont think that mono-culturalism is superior or more desirable to multiculturalism.

  2. #102
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    I do agree with you on the final sentence, whether or not the english speaking world did set up the chaos as a second front or true front to keep the fighting from their home turf is debatable, there's also lots and lots of discussion about the role of the former FSB in manipulating national seperatists into political muslims in the territories closer to or within Russian spheres of influence and how that has fed into the global political muslim foment, along with displaced peoples from sub Saharan african and african war zones, in geo-political terms.

    However, I do think that the nations which dont want to deal with immigration and refugee waves need to commit forces to stabilising zones or at least stopping people trafficking, I'd support an EU force which would occupy the territories from which all the boats carrying people have been launched, whatever the reasons for it happening.

    I've heard about the eastern european states, principally Poland, becoming more powerful or pivotal, especially if the central EU nations are destabilised by a combination of migration and internal nationalism, but I dont think that mono-culturalism is superior or more desirable to multiculturalism.


    If you think of this as supriority issue or anything similar you are missing the point completely. What I am saying is that basically entire Eastern half or Europe is willing to have somewhat worse standars of living if that means that it wouldn't become like Western europe in this regard. What means that it is hard to do anything about this or change it, since people are willing to make sacrafices. Few thousands here and there or as tourists ... ok. But fundmental change ... it wouldn't work, at least untill our standrd of living improves. Therefore if I were Merkel I would not push the issue too far.


    Regarding Poland and others, that is exactly the point. It is observable how much all of this has hurt Western europe in both security and economy. Therefore people here don't want long term immigrants, especaily now when we are finally making real progress. Plus there are historic reasons since most of E. Europe was fighting Ottoman empire for centuries. The most radical Ortodox christians actually dream about full scale war with Turkey since they want their old Capitol back.

  3. #103

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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    If you think of this as supriority issue or anything similar you are missing the point completely. What I am saying is that basically entire Eastern half or Europe is willing to have somewhat worse standars of living if that means that it wouldn't become like Western europe in this regard. What means that it is hard to do anything about this or change it, since people are willing to make sacrafices. Few thousands here and there or as tourists ... ok. But fundmental change ... it wouldn't work, at least untill our standrd of living improves. Therefore if I were Merkel I would not push the issue too far.


    Regarding Poland and others, that is exactly the point. It is observable how much all of this has hurt Western europe in both security and economy. Therefore people here don't want long term immigrants, especaily now when we are finally making real progress. Plus there are historic reasons since most of E. Europe was fighting Ottoman empire for centuries. The most radical Ortodox christians actually dream about full scale war with Turkey since they want their old Capitol back.
    I am very aware of the last point, I thought that the US/UK lobbying for special deals with Turkey and eventual or immediate membership for Turkey was total and utter sabotage and ridiculous in extremis, the history is there and it matters, the siege of Vienna happened and a lot besides.

    Although even where that not the case the possibility of Turkey clashing militarily with Israel is always there and I wouldnt want the EU to be in that position.

    That said, while the Eastern states dont want some of the development you attribute to central or western europe (I dont see it, just saying), the rest of Europe (meaning EU) did think it was taking a gamble on admitting those states to the union, I knew the bitter resistance of the ROI to admitting those states because I lived in the ROI at that time and wanted EU expansion to welcome those states when others did not, I felt it was totally necessary that Germany and Poland repair their relationships and renew, most of the anti-immigration hysteria in the UK and anti-multicultural hysteria in the UK was anti-polish and anti-eastern european.

    Also the threat of being dragged into a conflict with Russia over Eastern Europe is also something that terrifies central European EU member states.

  4. #104
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    I am very aware of the last point, I thought that the US/UK lobbying for special deals with Turkey and eventual or immediate membership for Turkey was total and utter sabotage and ridiculous in extremis, the history is there and it matters, the siege of Vienna happened and a lot besides.

    Although even where that not the case the possibility of Turkey clashing militarily with Israel is always there and I wouldnt want the EU to be in that position.

    That said, while the Eastern states dont want some of the development you attribute to central or western europe (I dont see it, just saying), the rest of Europe (meaning EU) did think it was taking a gamble on admitting those states to the union, I knew the bitter resistance of the ROI to admitting those states because I lived in the ROI at that time and wanted EU expansion to welcome those states when others did not, I felt it was totally necessary that Germany and Poland repair their relationships and renew, most of the anti-immigration hysteria in the UK and anti-multicultural hysteria in the UK was anti-polish and anti-eastern european.

    Also the threat of being dragged into a conflict with Russia over Eastern Europe is also something that terrifies central European EU member states.

    Well all those countries were accepted into the union exactly that they don't fall under growing inflence of Russia that decided to have a comeback. What means that in this plan Ex eastern block would be a shield against Russia (and it is). Since otherwise it could happen that Western Europe has to face Russia and all those countries in Eastern Europe. The only problem with the plan is/was that most of these Eastern countries are not ready for real unifications under all western values. Also making the shared market between countries where average income is 10:1 is also not the smartest idea on many levels.



    Regarding Turkey: USA obviously wantes to set up a countain around Russia but I am not sure how smart is to push the issue. Since Russia can just launch at any time and that is it, this is pure playing with hornet nest. However if Trump wins and decided to end NATO and then retreat then open war between Turkey and Orthodox Christian world becomes fairly certain on the long run. Especally since Turkey want to expand back into it's old lands on the balkans. Where they invest a lot in economy and religious infrastructure.

  5. #105

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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    Well all those countries were accepted into the union exactly that they don't fall under growing inflence of Russia that decided to have a comeback. What means that in this plan Ex eastern block would be a shield against Russia (and it is). Since otherwise it could happen that Western Europe has to face Russia and all those countries in Eastern Europe. The only problem with the plan is/was that most of these Eastern countries are not ready for real unifications under all western values. Also making the shared market between countries where average income is 10:1 is also not the smartest idea on many levels.



    Regarding Turkey: USA obviously wantes to set up a countain around Russia but I am not sure how smart is to push the issue. Since Russia can just launch at any time and that is it, this is pure playing with hornet nest. However if Trump wins and decided to end NATO and then retreat then open war between Turkey and Orthodox Christian world becomes fairly certain on the long run. Especally since Turkey want to expand back into it's old lands on the balkans. Where they invest a lot in economy and religious infrastructure.
    Well most of the ability of the EU to correct economic disparity between member states is based upon how the Germans were able to absorb and equalise the economies of the former east and west Germany, which, crazy as it may seem, I remember being a massive issue for lots of people in the UK, the EU was seen by some of the people who in the end gravitated to Brexit to be something to occupy the Germans with and prevent them becoming a world power again (there are a lot of very old imperial mindsets in the UK still, not poverty, not anything seems to shake that).

    The Balkans is something I dont think the EU central powers understand well or the potential for Balkanisation of the EU either, maybe not on christian versus muslim lines but there are other divisions.

    In the UK it was a mix of things which, in elite and establishment circles at least, made the EU something they couldnt be reconciled to, the radio reported it as an invention of catholic, socialist, french, bureaucrats, I dont know whether or not that's important or not to the most recent members of the union.

  6. #106
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    Well most of the ability of the EU to correct economic disparity between member states is based upon how the Germans were able to absorb and equalise the economies of the former east and west Germany, which, crazy as it may seem, I remember being a massive issue for lots of people in the UK, the EU was seen by some of the people who in the end gravitated to Brexit to be something to occupy the Germans with and prevent them becoming a world power again (there are a lot of very old imperial mindsets in the UK still, not poverty, not anything seems to shake that).

    The Balkans is something I dont think the EU central powers understand well or the potential for Balkanisation of the EU either, maybe not on christian versus muslim lines but there are other divisions.

    In the UK it was a mix of things which, in elite and establishment circles at least, made the EU something they couldnt be reconciled to, the radio reported it as an invention of catholic, socialist, french, bureaucrats, I dont know whether or not that's important or not to the most recent members of the union.

    Strange logic, since with Brexit German lead is even more pronounced. On the other hand standard of living is being equalized between West and East. This isn't smooth process but it is working, when you look my place now and 20 years ago ... huge difference in almost any aspect. The only problem is that locals should initiate more, so that foreigners don't take too big piece of the cake, plus there are some areas like ex-warzones where everything has stopped and it is frozen in time.


    No one one understands Balkans fully. Since this part of Europe did not have a long term stabile government(s) since the fall of Roman empire. Therefore nations remake borders all the time as well as political systems or alliances. So everything is in the state of change all the time. I am pro EU exactly because these lands need to stabilize finally. Because it is stupid that each generation starts with: new country, new constitution, new borders, new currency, new paradigms and perhaps even a new language. You can't build anything meaningful if there is a system reset every few decades.


    I can't talk about other countries but in mine all of that is ok. Since 95% of country is either Catholic or Atheist/Agnostic, all of out political parties are more or less socialistic (the main two are actually direct daughters of the communist party, as some smaller ones). Bureaucracy is ok if it is not overdone. French ... whatever.



    I was curious so I googled and I found interesting picture of how Europe looks in the terms of dominant religion. The only surprise is that there is Buddhism on the map.



  7. #107
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    Quote Originally Posted by Virtual ghost View Post
    I think 2 is actually unlikely on large scale, but it is possible if trends continue without any check. My bet is actually on 3 with elements of 1. (or perhaps the other way around)
    To someone who lives in multicultural environment 3 seems radical, while to me it is both realistic and relatively undramatic.
    The modern equivalent of holocaust would be genocide by organised terrorism, probably led by right-wing nationalists, without official state endorsement. At worst, the states would be passive agents, imo. Back then, the media played a very minor role, and there was no UN and EU equivalents; the notion of states having any kind of international accountability was quite rudimentary.
    -----------------

    A man builds. A parasite asks 'Where is my share?'
    A man creates. A parasite says, 'What will the neighbors think?'
    A man invents. A parasite says, 'Watch out, or you might tread on the toes of God... '


    -----------------

  8. #108

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    *VG's map demographic breakdown of religion*

    As I expected, not good enough for my team

  9. #109
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Despite what everybody thinks about Trump his presidency still offers Europe a few good opportunities.



    1. It will be much easier to promote Europe as cultural and scientific centre of the world.

    2. The chance of new cold war with Russia is radically reduced and end of sanctions could help European economy that is hit by this this.

    3. It will be easer to reintroduce some economic barriers that will protect european workers, since the taboo of doing that will be broken.

    3. TTIP that almost no one in Europe wants is basically dead at this point. (or Trump will go against his campaign promises)

    4. The entire immigrant/proxy wars thing could be solved in the near future if Russia and USA solve their relation issues.

  10. #110

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    I doubt that there will be a European Union in a couple of years now to be honest.

    And if it exists it will be something radically different from the founders intended, radically, radically different, like the vision of Le Pen in France, The Dutch Freedom Party, Brevik in Norway. Cant see any silver linings in this at all.

    The EU was a nice idea while it lasted, along with human rights, the social chapter, all that sort of thing but it was only here for a season.

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