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  1. #1
    breaking out of my cocoon SearchingforPeace's Avatar
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    Default 2016 primary and caucus predictions thread

    Ok, folks, time for the fun. Votes are about tobe cast and the rollercoaster ride is beginning. The preseason has been remarkable.

    On the Democratic side, the Bern has come out of nowhere to compete with Hillary. I am so glad he did and I appreciate greatly many of his views and positions.

    On the Republican side, the story didn't play out as expected. Jeb and Rubio and Christie and Huckabee and Santorum were supposed to be the guys in front. But outsiders have dominated this process, led by Trump.

    What does Trump really stand for besides blowing his own horn, narcissism, and mean spirited rhetoric? Who knows, as he has completely changed most of his stated beliefs over the last few years?

    So, Iowa is upon us, so let's get some predictions on the record.

    Post your winner between Bern and Hill on the Democratic side, and top three finishing order on the Republican side.
    Quote Originally Posted by Archilochus
    The fox knows many things--the hedgehog one big one.
    And I am not a hedgehog......

    -------------------

    Jesus said "Blessed are the peacemakers" not "blessed are the conflict avoiders.....

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  2. #2
    Butterfly Amargith's Avatar
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    I honestly think Bernie would be the way to go for you guys, the next few years.
    ★ڿڰۣ✿ℒoѵℯ✿ڿڰۣ★





    "Be careful what you believe, because that is the world you'll create - Cassie Nightingale
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  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by Amargith View Post
    I honestly think Bernie would be the way to go for you guys, the next few years.
    We don't look at what we need for the next few years. We find what's best for eternity and fight over it going to the extremes because we don't know how to balance today and the future. We have no clear path, just 2 different directions we flip between. We essentially create a zig-zag pattern.
    Im out, its been fun

  4. #4
    deplorable basketcase Tellenbach's Avatar
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    Cruz takes first due to a better ground game (he's got the evangelical vote, the conservative vote, and the Tea Party vote); Trump is a close second (brings in disaffected working class Democrats and cult of personality followers); Rand Paul takes 3rd (probably wishful thinking on my part) and Ben Carson comes in 4th.
    Liberty means the ability to say "No thanks, perhaps later. I'm gonna go take a nap now."
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  5. #5

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    I'd hoped Martin O'Malley would've done better. He will very likely be the Veep candidate to whoever is nominated by the dems, after finishing in a distant third. I predict he'll drop out after poor showings in the early primary/caucus states, although we could see a similar usurpation to what happened with Kerry in 2004 (Clark and Dean were both widely covered by the media, polled well and seemed popular choices leading up to N.H. and Iowa, yet neither did as well as predicted, with many dems choosing Kerry based on some crazy notion he was more "electable" than the others [dem primary voters can be very shortsighted])--this scenario is highly unlikely but not impossible, if enough dems see Hillary as a liability and Sanders as too extreme.

  6. #6

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    Either way, I expect we won't see a clear dem frontrunner until well after super tuesday, although it could be decided that early.

  7. #7
    breaking out of my cocoon SearchingforPeace's Avatar
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    I would rather Bern wins, but I suspect Hill will win by a nudge. I read today that Iowa and NH are two of the three states were Bern has the strongest advantage as are primaries full of white liberals, so I will hold out hope for a 51/49 Bern over Hill.

    On the Rep side, Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Paul, in that order. Hopefully the also rans drop out..
    Quote Originally Posted by Archilochus
    The fox knows many things--the hedgehog one big one.
    And I am not a hedgehog......

    -------------------

    Jesus said "Blessed are the peacemakers" not "blessed are the conflict avoiders.....

    9w8 6w5 4w5 sx/so

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by SearchingforPeace View Post
    I would rather Bern wins, but I suspect Hill will win by a nudge. I read today that Iowa and NH are two of the three states were Bern has the strongest advantage as are primaries full of white liberals, so I will hold out hope for a 51/49 Bern over Hill.

    On the Rep side, Cruz, Trump, Rubio, Paul, in that order. Hopefully the also rans drop out..
    Yeah, Hillary will also have her establishment allies helping her in many states (both legally and illegally). I suspect her victory will be illegitimate and she'll be willing to go to any measures to prevent a repeat of 2008.

  9. #9
    breaking out of my cocoon SearchingforPeace's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Anaximander View Post
    Yeah, Hillary will also have her establishment allies helping her in many states (both legally and illegally). I suspect her victory will be illegitimate and she'll be willing to go to any measures to prevent a repeat of 2008.
    Her win in NH in 2008 was aided by union workers driving up to NH and voting. We really need better voting controls but the fraudsters would never want that. ....
    Quote Originally Posted by Archilochus
    The fox knows many things--the hedgehog one big one.
    And I am not a hedgehog......

    -------------------

    Jesus said "Blessed are the peacemakers" not "blessed are the conflict avoiders.....

    9w8 6w5 4w5 sx/so

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by SearchingforPeace View Post
    Her win in NH in 2008 was aided by union workers driving up to NH and voting. We really need better voting controls but the fraudsters would never want that. ....
    Why any union people will support her over Bernie is beyond me. He is far more representative of the concerns of the working class. I don't hate much, but Hillary makes me crazy.
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