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  1. #21
    Senior Member matmos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antisocial one View Post
    But from the the Russian point of view all of this is very logical move.
    Absolutely. The operation sends a clear signal to the West about Russia's strategic interests.

    Under NATO rules an attack on one member is an attack on all and would trigger a military response. This makes Georgia's accession to NATO unlikely in the near future.

    BP have just closed a gas pipeline (Baku-Ceyhan) - "just in case". Control of this pipeline would give the Russians almost complete control of supply of gas to the EU.

    The beauty of the operation is that they don't even have to take over Georgia (which would take 3-4 months) they only have to threaten to do it.

    Georgia's decision to reconsolodate South Ossetia (and possibly extend to Abkhazia) appears to be astoundingly bad judgement. Sakashvili (sic) should assess his position. The Russians have been given what they want on a plate.

    The US has been expanding influence using soft power in this region for some time, but that has now been blow, thanks to the emotive internal issues.

    The deal will be - you have the pipeline but Georgia stays out of NATO.

  2. #22
    Striving for balance Little Linguist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    Absolutely. The operation sends a clear signal to the West about Russia's strategic interests.

    Under NATO rules an attack on one member is an attack on all and would trigger a military response. This makes Georgia's accession to NATO unlikely in the near future.

    BP have just closed a gas pipeline (Baku-Ceyhan) - "just in case". Control of this pipeline would give the Russians almost complete control of supply of gas to the EU.

    The beauty of the operation is that they don't even have to take over Georgia (which would take 3-4 months) they only have to threaten to do it.

    Georgia's decision to reconsolodate South Ossetia (and possibly extend to Abkhazia) appears to be astoundingly bad judgement. Sakashvili (sic) should assess his position. The Russians have been given what they want on a plate.

    The US has been expanding influence using soft power in this region for some time, but that has now been blow, thanks to the emotive internal issues.

    The deal will be - you have the pipeline but Georgia stays out of NATO.
    Yeah, but why would Georgia invade when they have no possible chance of success? There's something else behind it, for SURE!
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  3. #23
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    I remember talking to him about how some EU members said it was "only a matter of time" before Russia was a part of the EU. I was aghast at how ignorant these guys had to be, and I asked my brother "do these people know Russia at all?", he replied "You know who understands Russia? Nobody fucking understands Russia! Not even Russians".

    I was thinking about starting thread about that and now I know that I will.

  4. #24
    Striving for balance Little Linguist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Antisocial one View Post
    I was thinking about starting thread about that and now I know that I will.
    NO FLIPPING WAY!!!! Russia would NEVER become a part of the EU - UNLESS they did it to ally against the USA - but even that seems like a long shot.

    Besides, I do not think the EU would be comfy with it either.

    I don't even think they fulfill the requirements for an accession negotiation.

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  5. #25
    Senior Member matmos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little Linguist View Post
    Yeah, but why would Georgia invade when they have no possible chance of success? There's something else behind it, for SURE!
    Apparently they have been *provoked* for some time, both politically and militarily.

    This issue has been going on (unresolved) since '91 - they want Russified areas back. Sakashvili probably has short term public support, but will come unstuck long-term.

  6. #26
    Striving for balance Little Linguist's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    Apparently they have been *provoked* for some time, both politically and militarily.

    This issue has been going on (unresolved) since '91 - they want Russified areas back. Sakashvili probably has short term public support, but will come unstuck long-term.
    No offense, but does that seem logical to you? Especially right now with the strain they are under??? Why NOW?! Why would Georgia attack NOW?

    Gosh, totally does not make any sense at all. But I have to go to bed folks. Tomorrow's another day.

    Just think about it a minute.
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  7. #27
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little Linguist View Post
    Yeah, but why would Georgia invade when they have no possible chance of success? There's something else behind it, for SURE!
    Someone once said that operation in Iraq can't go wrong no matter what happens.( the point is that the goliath is always defeated.

    But it is hard to imagine that the west would sacrifice Georgia to fight Russia in guerilla warfare.



    On the other hand there is one more scenario that will make you even more worried.

    There is a possibility that NATO is testing Russia.

    Russia designed large amount of new weapons in the last few years. This way those weapons will be tested and it will be more obvious what Russia really has.

    Plus with the satellite you can see how troops are moving and what formations they are using in the field.

    Once you know that you can calculate many things.


    And one more thing: membership in EU and strategic partnership are two very different things.

  8. #28
    Senior Member matmos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Little Linguist View Post
    No offense, but does that seem logical to you? Especially right now with the strain they are under??? Why NOW?! Why would Georgia attack NOW?
    No offense taken (why would it?) There does seem to be some debate about the precise rationale of the Georgian govt's actions.

    Quite possibly they thought they could get away with it...

    Obviously they haven't and hindsight's a wonderful thing.

    On the other point. The idea that the US would sacrifice Georgia for a military insight it could get elsewhere strikes me as being unlikely.

    Like all politicians at some point in their career, Sakashvili made a wrong call.

  9. #29
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by werewolfen1984 View Post
    This is my dumbed down analysis of the situation.

    In a nutshell: Georgia launched a surprise attack on an independent, autonomous region, South Ossetia, killing civilians and Russian peacekeepers. It is being spun by the MSM in the West that Russia invaded Georgia.

    The MSM in the U.S. is reporting on the topic as if Russia invaded Georgia, a U.S. friendly country of the former Soviet Union.

    The reality is that Georgia with the aid of U.S. military advisors and foreign military invaded a territory within Georgia, South Ossetia, which is an independent, autonomous region with many residents granted Russian citizenship, intentionally killing civilians. It is reported the U.S. conducted exercises with Georgia with over 1,000 U.S. military personnel. Russia invaded S. Ossetia in order to stop the genocide of this sovereign, independent state, which is a friendly with Russia.

    Georgia, with the aid Israel, Ukraine, and the U.S., are engaged in genocide. Russia was merely attempting to stop the killing of civilians.

    In U.S. news and the minds of average Americans, it is a vague picture of Russia invading a sovereign nation in regards to a border dispute. And the people of the U.S. wonder why the U.S. is seen by the world as stupid Nazis.

    It is speculated this invasion was a test of Russian resolve. We should care because Russia has and has threatened to use nuclear weapons if threatened.

    And for the real idiots, were talking about Georgia, the country South of Russia and North of Turkey. Were not talking about the state in the U.S., Georgia. Russian tanks are not rolling towards Atlanta.

    Yes, a lot of the sources are from Russia. Russia is providing in-depth coverage. The U.S. media is more concerned with telling news involving Paris Hilton and John Edwards. Is Russian media unbiased? Is U.S. media unbiased?

    I think it is up to the U.S. to prove that they had no involvement and that Georgia did not launch a surprise attack on civilians. I dont think Georgia would provoke such a war without a greenlight and deals from the U.S. and Israel.

    When you can't trust the news, think motive.
    Are you for real? I am wary of the American media, but the pro-government Russian media are nothing but tools. Russia has been in expansionist mode for a while now, and I would put very little past Putin and Medvedev. I am watching this situation closely.

    BTW, "independent and autonomous" doesn't mean "separate country and can choose to be Russia or not Russia if they feel like it." By your apparent logic here, Putin is guilty of offensive war and genocide in Chechnya.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  10. #30
    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    On the other point. The idea that the US would sacrifice Georgia for a military insight it could get elsewhere strikes me as being unlikely.

    Because it is.

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