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  1. #41
    I could do things Hard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    I don't disagree that the climate is changing, or even that human activity plays (some degree of) a role in it.

    What I question, is the accuracy of climate predictions and sea levels 100 years from now, when meteorologically, you can't tell me whether or not its going to rain next week.

    I question proposed solutions that can't hope to have any material affect on the problem. Yes I understand that steps need to be taken to try and minimize human impact on climate, I just disagree with the assertion that it is acceptable for those solutions to involve humanity forcibly bypassing further technological advancement.
    This I can get behind. It's very hard to accurately predict what will occur that far in the future (we pretty much know it will go up, and for low lying areas this will be a problem). If just for the fact that there are so many variables, including how the industrialized world is going to change. The best we can do is product statistical models and get an idea of what will occur, and use that to choose the direction we need to go in.

    If we want to have any impact on this, it's going to take decades of time so the economic impact of a world wide industry shift will be as minimal as possible. The problem is, getting that many people behind it and organized is, well, really not likely at all. For the moment we need to focus on research so we can have an efficient method. We do have a few (nuclear) that are proven to work well, we just have other end problems to sort out. Once we have a viable alternative in place that can be implemented and be economical, we'll be good to go.

    But really, I still say we're fucked.
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  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hard View Post
    But really, I still say we're fucked.
    The sky isn't falling.

    Humanity will survive just fine.

  3. #43
    deplorable basketcase Tellenbach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hard
    Your kind is actually harming the world with this line of thinking.
    Just asking for the same scientific standards that we see in other, real branches of science. Let's see the raw data; let's see the software used to crunch the numbers; tell us where you got those tree rings and what the linear correlation coefficients are. See, I doubt you understand the kind of farce that's used to generate Mann's hockey stick graph. I doubt you understand why critics think it's garbage and I doubt you know the history behind it all.

    There are other studies that say the opposite of what you've provided.
    No there aren't. Prove to me that the planet surface has warmed in the past 17 years. You can't and no one in the climate change community can because the planet hasn't warmed in that time frame. What happened to all those climate models that said we'd see the planet warming?

    The joke for a piece of shit that is the tea party.
    Now you're just ranting.

    They are utterly impervious to any kind of reason at all, which is why they insight so much anger in so many people.
    This is rich coming from someone who knows so little about economics, science, and politics. It's not like I haven't given you any resources so you can educate yourself, but your side refuses to learn.

    Basically, I am the exact manifestaion of everything you hate.
    Willful ignorance is nothing to be proud of. Consider this: I've never come across a lefty who can defend his/her positions on any lefty issue. Why is this? Why isn't Detroit a success if leftist policies are so great? Why isn't Greece or France huge successes if redistribution of wealth is such a great thing. Why doesn't the VA work as advertised. Krugman touted it as a crown jewel of single payer healthcare. See, when there isn't a single example of success from lefty policies, perhaps it's time to put down the Kool-aid and just admit that the ideas suck.
    Senator Rand Paul is alive because of modern medicine and because his attacker punches like a girl.

  4. #44
    I could do things Hard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    The sky isn't falling.

    Humanity will survive just fine.
    If we could magically hit the stop button on everything, then yeah we'd be fine. The issue at hand is that this is a progressive thing (and the factors that drive it are increasing with time), so that eventually problems will become more severe.

    Humanity as a whole will not just go kaput, but I would not be surprised if a modern day dark-age esque type event were to occur. I do not believe it would happen in any of our lifetimes, but I don't think it's that farfetched in a century or two if not enough is done to help aid this. It would take some serious readjusting. It's enough of a concern though that it's a reason I don't want to have kids.
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  5. #45
    I could do things Hard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellenbach View Post
    Just asking for the same scientific standards that we see in other, real branches of science. Let's see the raw data; let's see the software used to crunch the numbers; tell us where you got those tree rings and what the linear correlation coefficients are. See, I doubt you understand the kind of farce that's used to generate Mann's hockey stick graph. I doubt you understand why critics think it's garbage and I doubt you know the history behind it all.

    No there aren't. Prove to me that the planet surface has warmed in the past 17 years. You can't and no one in the climate change community can because the planet hasn't warmed in that time frame. What happened to all those climate models that said we'd see the planet warming?

    Now you're just ranting.

    This is rich coming from someone who knows so little about economics, science, and politics. It's not like I haven't given you any resources so you can educate yourself, but your side refuses to learn.

    Willful ignorance is nothing to be proud of. Consider this: I've never come across a lefty who can defend his/her positions on any lefty issue. Why is this? Why isn't Detroit a success if leftist policies are so great? Why isn't Greece or France huge successes if redistribution of wealth is such a great thing. Why doesn't the VA work as advertised. Krugman touted it as a crown jewel of single payer healthcare. See, when there isn't a single example of success from lefty policies, perhaps it's time to put down the Kool-aid and just admit that the ideas suck.
    HOW DARE YOU SAY I KNOW LITTLE ABOUT SCIENCE!!!!! I'm fucking working on a PhD and I am near the top of my class. It's YOU that is ignorant. It's YOU that is the problem. You rant about "leftys" ALL the time. Of course I am ranting, because I am fucking PISSED OFF because how stubborn you are. You do not listen to others. It's IMPOSSIBLE to reason with you.

    YOU'RE THE ONE THAT IS FUCKING WILLFULLY IGNORANT. I GAVE YOU THE FUCKING PREMIRE SOURCES OF CLIMATE SCIENCE! And you fucking shot it down. I DID prove it, and you refuse to accept it.

    You want some amazing leftist countries? Try Iceland, Norway, Finland, or scandanavia in general. Oh wait, let me guess, they're bad too. No one can win against you because you reject everything anyone says.


    I do not care if I get an infraction for this. This is absolutely insane.
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  6. #46
    deplorable basketcase Tellenbach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hard
    HOW DARE YOU SAY I KNOW LITTLE ABOUT SCIENCE!!!!!
    Tell me how Dr Mann is able to know what the global temperatures were in the middle ages. How is that done?

    Also, I hope you don't get an infraction. I'm fine with a little emotion in a heated discussion, though I am perfectly calm and composed.
    Senator Rand Paul is alive because of modern medicine and because his attacker punches like a girl.

  7. #47
    I could do things Hard's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Tellenbach View Post
    Tell me how Dr Mann is able to know what the global temperatures were in the middle ages. How is that done?

    Also, I hope you don't get an infraction. I'm fine with a little emotion in a heated discussion, though I am perfectly calm and composed.
    I do not have the time (I shouldn't even be on the forums, but I can't do my other work at the moment), or energy to look into this right now. Outside of this, I am really not in a good head space at the moment and don't have it in me. You might be composed, but I am not at all (not just with this but in general). To be perfectly honest, I don't care to either because this is a distraction from the main problem. Yes there is scientific dishonest in every field. I see it in my field and it pisses me off to no end when it happens and people get away with it. However, this is overwhelmed by droves upon droves of data. I don't know how he did it, I have vauge reccolections on how it was done as I read into it years back, but it's lost on me.

    If I get one then I deserve it.

    Edit: mods suggested I sit the thread out from this point on. I agree so I am done here.
    MBTI: ExxJ tetramer
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  8. #48
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    I don't disagree that the climate is changing, or even that human activity plays (some degree of) a role in it.

    What I question, is the accuracy of climate predictions and sea levels 100 years from now, when meteorologically, you can't tell me whether or not its going to rain next week.
    No one can tell you exactly what Miguel Cabrera will do in his next AB, but you can be pretty sure that at the end of the season he'll have 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, .300+ AVG, .900+ OPS, etc. The reasoning is similar. The outcome of individual events is random, but the sum of all events is not. The sum converges to a point we can predict.

    That said, I agree with you in that I'm not convinced the sky is falling when it comes to climate. Climate models suffer from the fact that we have been measuring temperatures on a global scale for only a few decades. The farther you go back in time, the less certain those measurements are. The climate is incredibly complex, perhaps that only system we study that is more complex is the human brain. I think we have a while to go before we really understand it and there's no way to accelerate that learning. We need to take more direct measurements on a global scale.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    No one can tell you exactly what Miguel Cabrera will do in his next AB, but you can be pretty sure that at the end of the season he'll have 30+ HR, 100+ RBI, .300+ AVG, .900+ OPS, etc. The reasoning is similar. The outcome of individual events is random, but the sum of all events is not. The sum converges to a point we can predict.

    That said, I agree with you in that I'm not convinced the sky is falling when it comes to climate. Climate models suffer from the fact that we have been measuring temperatures on a global scale for only a few decades. The farther you go back in time, the less certain those measurements are. The climate is incredibly complex, perhaps that only system we study that is more complex is the human brain. I think we have a while to go before we really understand it and there's no way to accelerate that learning. We need to take more direct measurements on a global scale.
    Short of Geo-engineering on a massive scale, I don't see us being able to have any real impact on it.

  10. #50
    deplorable basketcase Tellenbach's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Hard
    To be perfectly honest, I don't care to either because this is a distraction from the main problem.
    You hold such strong beliefs but these beliefs are not grounded in any knowledge, only faith...faith in idiots like Warren, the climate change community, etc. I wish you the greatest success in life, but don't engage in spats with strangers when you aren't informed.

    I do know how Mann did it. He measures tree ring widths and then uses the current 100 year temperature record to calibrate it. It's a stupid, faulty process but he isn't challenged on it because he hides the correlation coefficients and refuses to disclose the statistical process he uses. Read about it in "The Hockey Stick Illusion".
    Senator Rand Paul is alive because of modern medicine and because his attacker punches like a girl.

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