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Thread: What Are The Odds Of There Being a Terrorist Attack At The Sochi Olympics?

  1. #1
    Senior Member Array Mal12345's Avatar
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    Default What Are The Odds Of There Being a Terrorist Attack At The Sochi Olympics?

    0%? 100% What do YOU think?
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  2. #2
    Seal Down Array Hard's Avatar
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    No idea. I don't have enough information to make an informed decision, much less put a number to it. Could one happen? Yes, but that's all I can say. I think it'd be really really hard to put an actual chance value to this.
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    I am going with 16.2468:1.

    This forum is filled with national security experts and geopolitical analysts, so I look forward to an informed and fruitful debate. Maybe the Russian government will pay us for our services.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Array Alea_iacta_est's Avatar
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    I say 50/50. On one hand you have vindictive terrorists from the other Caucus states that have been tired of being Russia's prisoners that would give their lives to do the act. On the other you have Russian security, which might include a small army being stationed nearby if the rest if the Olympics doesn't mind.

    If you hadn't heard, Dagestan, one of Russia's unruly subjects, has announced that they will target the Sochi Olympics for a terrorist act.

  6. #6
    Artisan Conquerer Array Halla74's Avatar
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    Here's my from the hip take on the probability of a terrorist attack of some kind happening @ the Sochi Olympics.

    Historical Background:

    Munich Massacre (1972 Summer Olympics in West Germany)


    The Munich massacre was an attack during the 1972 Summer Olympics in Munich, West Germany on 11 members of the Israeli Olympic team, who were taken hostage and eventually killed, along with a German police officer, by the Palestinian group Black September.[3][4][5][6] Shortly after the crisis began, they demanded the release of 234 prisoners held in Israeli jails,[7] and the release of the founders (Andreas Baader and Ulrike Meinhof) of the German Red Army Faction, who were held in German prisons.[8] Black September called the operation "Iqrit and Biram",[9] after two Palestinian Christian villages whose inhabitants were expelled by the Haganah in 1948.

    The attackers were apparently given logistical assistance by German neo-Nazis.[10] Five of the eight members of Black September were killed by police officers during a failed rescue attempt. The three surviving attackers were captured, but later released by West Germany following the hijacking of a Lufthansa airliner. Israel responded to the killers' release with Operation "Spring of Youth" and Operation "Wrath of God", during which Israeli intelligence agency Mossad and special forces systematically tracked down and killed Palestinians suspected of involvement in the massacre.

    Modern Russia as Ruled by Vladimir Putin

    Has Putin's FSB turned Russia into a police state?


    Russia's FSB - successor to the KGB - has become even more powerful on Vladimir Putin's watch. How have the security services come to occupy such a prominent position in the world's largest country?
    The FSB is under nobody's control. It's absolutely independent and they do whatever Putin tells them.

    The FSB's responsibilities have continued to accumulate in the new century.

    Officially, they now include:

    (1) protecting Russia's borders,
    (2) assuring the country's security against the threat of terrorist attacks,
    (3) and fighting drug trafficking and arms trading, as well combating organised crime and foreign espionage.

    A controversial bill passed in 2010 allows the FSB to fine and detain people it deems to be hindering the work of one of its employees.
    Critics say the new law actually sanctions FSB intimidation of its opponents.

    No external control

    Critics argue that the FSB, even more so than its KGB predecessor, now plays a formative and malign role in Russian life.

    Kremlinologist Olga Kryshtanovskaya noted in 2006:
    "If in the Soviet period and the first post-Soviet period, the KGB and FSB were mainly involved in security issues, now half are still involved in security but the other half are involved in business, political parties, NGOs, regional governments, even culture."

    "The KGB was ultimately delimited by the fact that it was under Communist Party control, but the FSB has no such external control. It's not answerable to the public but to the Kremlin." - Mr Soldatov told Channel 4 News.

    Security Services Fiefdom

    In the UK, the FSB does not yet enjoy the profile of its predecessor, the KGB.
    But its affairs spilled over Russia's borders in 2006 when Alexander Litvinenko, formerly a lieutenant-colonel with Russia's security services, was poisoned with polonium-210 in London.

    He also claimed that Vladimir Putin was directly responsible for ordering the murder of the journalist Anna Politkovskaya in the elevator of her apartment block in October 2006.
    Writing in 2004, ahead of Mr Putin's second presidential term, Politkovskaya said, in a clear reference to the FSB:
    "Putin has backers and helpers, people with a vested interest in his second ascent of the throne, people now concentrated in the president's office."

    People Of Power

    An article in The Economist in 2007 estimated there were some 500,000 operatives across the world. Observers such as Oleg Gordievsky suggest that number has undoubtedly increased since the FSB's formation.


    My closing comments. No one wants to see the horrific Munich Massacre of 1972 repeated, or anything similar - or worse for the matter.
    Counter terrorism is tricky business. BUT - I argue it just might be easier to perform counter terrorism in a police state such as modern Russian under Putin's control, than it is to try and prevent terrorism in the U.S.A. - where our local, state, and federal law enforcement and intelligence agencies have repeatedly shown to harbor information from one and other to control their fiefdoms/jurisdictions. Plus, let's face it people - do you think X-ray scanners and flunky TSA agents on every street corner would prevent terrorism? Hell no.

    In simplest terms I think Putin has the strength of will, intelligence and experience of a former KGB agent, the resources, and a populace that will bow to whatever security protocols and procedures he deems necessary to create an atmosphere that can support counter terrorism operations in Sochi. I also think that Putin has more balls than Obama, Biden, Holder and every blowhard in the U.S. House and U.S. Senate combined - and that he's not going to fuck around by allowing something stupid to happen in Sochi under his watch.

    If things go well in Sochi, it will be an international political victory for Russia and for Putin.
    If things go wrong, as in some type of terrorist attack does occur, then it will be a massive embarrassment for Russian, and for Putin.
    Nothing is guaranteed, something could happen, but I honestly think Putin will put more effort and resources into attempting to prevent terrorist attacks at the Sochi Olympics than any other head of State because it makes sense for him to do so for ALOT of reasons.

    All we can do is wait and hope for the best.

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  7. #7
    Meat Tornado Array DiscoBiscuit's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Il Morto Che Parla View Post
    This forum is filled with national security experts and geopolitical analysts,
    I don't know if I would say filled but there are a couple.

    I think the chance of something happening is probably between 5% and 15%.

    If we are talking about the likelihood of something large, like the 1996 Atlanta pipe bombing, the chances of that are somewhat smaller call it 3% to 5%.
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  8. #8
    Senior Member Array Lateralus's Avatar
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    I don't know, but neocons are hoping for an attack so they can justify another war.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

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    Does preventing a war in Syria go unpunished? Stopping the expansion for Greater Israel? Interfering with Saudi profit? US war dog reputation? 50/50 as an outside observer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    I don't know if I would say filled but there are a couple.

    I think the chance of something happening is probably between 5% and 15%.

    If we are talking about the likelihood of something large, like the 1996 Atlanta pipe bombing, the chances of that are somewhat smaller call it 3% to 5%.
    Ok...thanks for continuing my joke?

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