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  1. #111
    Senior Member Bamboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    I should preface this post, which will seem cold and analytical, by saying that mass murder is horrible, and wish it never occurred.
    Thanks ygolo for this response. I feel like this conversation could use a hard look at the numbers. I agree, this analysis can seem cold, but fundamentally this is a terrible problem.

    I'd also like to add for the record that I'm not especially motivated to defend whites, or men, or white men, or any other group. I just feel like an accurate picture of what's going on is worthwhile to have. I do feel like theories are being thrown around without regard to what facts there are to back it up.

    One confounding factor is that many of the shootings counted were a form of Islamist terrorism. Some of them Mother Jones counted as white, some not.

    I think we are in fact seeing a conglomeration of many phenomenon. One is motivated because of identification with an extreme vision of religious identity related to Islamist Ideology (which I distinguish from Islam itself), other aspects could be a mix of bunch of other things, including @marmatoni 's hypothesis. I also noticed, that some of these were personal incidents that ended up involving more people in the cross-fire...this included a significant black population of shooters. I think a single picture of what is going on oversimplifies things.
    You're right, that does mix things up. I didn't take a look at much of the original statistics or what their operational definitions were. I simply took the stats Marm provided in post 38. For the record, I was quick to admit this was a rough estimate, and I'm glad you're breaking it down a bit more for me and everyone else here.

    It does seem reasonable based on their sheet to assume that Latinos include White Hispanics, so your assumption of comparing 63% against Non-Hispanic White to the 70% among the shooters. The white population in general is declining so more recent years onward, Marm's argument gains strength with the increase in death count of these shootings. However, in the 2000s 23/35 shooters (63%) were white, which is right "on par" as you were saying. There was only one shooting in 2010 (by a black shooter), but in 2011, 2/3 were white (66%), the other was latino, in 2012, 5/7 shooters were white (about 71%), while the other two were Asian.
    Yeah, I did a bit of fuzzy math, not knowing how many of the more recent shootings were statistically by whites compared to the decline in general (non-hispanic) white population. There's probably some calculus you could do here, but it seems like the assessment that there is a slight (probably less than 5 percent) over representation of whites seems fair.

    However, whites may still be over-represented. To see if this difference is statistically significant, we would need to some analysis of the variance. I am not sure if @Jonny (or anyone else) wants to do it. The spreadsheet is downloadable ( https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/...0RHhUdkE#gid=0 ). I have a day with enough tedium to look forward to, so I'm skipping it for now. But my intuition on scanning through the variance looking through the years is that there is significant variance in the percent of white non-hispanic shooters. I would say that the data shows at best a significance level at a 10%. I should also note that same intuition leads me to believe Asians are over-represented in this as well. I would doubt that the p-values would be any better than 10% (so just barely statistically significant, if that. Most people would want something like 5% or smaller). It is too bad socioeconomic data is not there.
    This is where my stats skills aren't up to par. What does variance indicate?

    Socioeconomic data would be nice to have.

    My own observations after sorting by race:
    • Asian shooters were mostly workplace shooters, school shooters, and one in a spa another in at a civic organization
    • Black shooters generally seemed to be either shooting people they knew(family, girlfriends) or authority figures (police, workplaces they were fired from, people denying something they wanted).
    • Latino shooters had one arson (his apartment) with hostage taking, two incidents at a hotel, and one at a restaurant
    • The one Native American shooter on the list killed his grandfather and girlfriend and then went shot many people on the reservation school
    • The one Unknown race shooter on the list shot up his workplace because he was unhappy with his job assignment
    • I couldn't really spot a pattern among the white shooters, but then again, I was just summarizing the summaries for some the other races.


    Also, all of this has to be tempered with what would be considered a "mass" shooting spree could have a cut-off on the low-end for the number of fatalities (for instance). If we say a dozen or more is what constitutes it being "mass", then 7/10 (70%) where white (a couple in the 80s, a couple in the 90s, the rest after 2007).

    If we limit to "school shootings" (the venues limited to schools), 8/12 were white (66%), 3/12 were Asian (25%).

    If we combine both, to "mass school shootings", the 7/9 were white (78%), one was Asian, the other was Native American. I am pretty sure this is too small a sample size to say anything significant. But if people are remembering "mass school shootings", then they would be right in noticing that at the current moment white shooters are more common among shooters than in the general population. But ascribing it significance may be too much of an inference.
    Operational definitions really complicate things here.

    I'd personally describe a mass shooting as an event where at least 3 civilians (including military personnel who are not 'in theater' so to speak...basically if they are not engaged in war) are killed by a shooter with 'a degree of randomness' for no material gain (as oppessed to a robbery) and the intention to 'cause fear, alarm, panic, or to provide the shooter with a psychological 'high' or benefit of some sort.'

    Admittedly, my definition is a little hard to classify, because what is 'a degree of randomness' and all the rest? That's another conversation... Number limits simplify things.

    Curious about the asian representation. Do most 'mass school shootings' occur in college? Don't Asian's have higher than typical population in college?

    I'd put forward the hypothesis that in any given population there is going to be a certain level of this sort of violence proportional to the amount of men, regardless of race. Could there be other factors? Absolutely. Including entitlement? Possibly.


    -------------
    To be honest, after looking through the data, I think it best to just deal with potential threats case by case. If we see people fascinated by weapons and also showing signs of mental illness, it may time to take some precautionary measures.
    -------------
    Because of the scope of this issue (as in 60 some individuals over ~30 years in a population of ~314 million, not to say this hasn't effected everyone, but in terms of monitoring potential shooters), case by case seems like the way to go IMO.
    Don't know how much it'll bend til it breaks.

  2. #112
    Senior Member Bamboo's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmotini View Post
    Furthermore, @Bamboo made up his numbers and admitted he isn't great with statistics. My number on the other hand, of white men being 70 percent of mass public shooters and 30 percent of the general population has an official source that can easily be found by people not too busy mocking me because they for some unknown reason imagine that is the purpose of this thread.
    I stated I'm no expert in statistics to demonstrate that I may be wrong and welcomed fact based dispute, but I provided a reasoned argument.

    I did NOT 'make up' my numbers. My hard numbers came from US Census reports. Any unclear statistics I specifically described as estimates, all of which were based on actual hard numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by Marmotini View Post
    I am deeply ashamed of the people who think white men make up the majority of our population, when women of all races make up 51 percent of the population. White men are 32 percent of our U.S. population.

    Why is no one verifying this before saying I am a racist or sexist.
    FWIW, I commented on this at least once. While I did see at least one person calling you racist/sexist, also FWIW, I have not. I do think your theory is misinformed. I'm not going to get into it much more than this, I think I said it all in my posts.
    Don't know how much it'll bend til it breaks.

  3. #113
    Analytical Dreamer Coriolis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmotini View Post
    And to be clear, I am not suggesting all white males are terrorists, or even close to a majority. I am suggesting that the minority who are terrorists should be socially labeled and treated as such in their punishment, rather than fifty more idiotic news reports asking what went wrong with upper middle class white Johnny and how can we heeeeellllp hiiiiimmm...meanwhile, ten more of his kind go out and repeat the same act. I am sick of the bullshit.
    I would do the opposite, and treat commonly acknowledged terrorists, e.g. Al Qaeda and their ilk, like common criminals. Give them the sentence the severity of their crimes deserves, like Ariel Castro's life +1000 years, or death if allowed in the jurisdiction where convicted. Take away their publicity, their bully pulpit, their special treatment. Throw them into jail with our usual run of murderers, rapists, and muggers, and see how well they do. As soon as they start targeting the innocent, their "cause" becomes irrelevant. How they are handled now is the big, tragic, counterproductive, real-life version of feeding trolls.
    I've been called a criminal, a terrorist, and a threat to the known universe. But everything you were told is a lie. The truth is, they've taken our freedom, our home, and our future. The time has come for all humanity to take a stand...

  4. #114
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    Modern First Person Shooters SUCK!!!!


  5. #115
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    Quote Originally Posted by highlander View Post
    I'm not trying to give you a hard time. I'm merely pointing out that the case you have provided is weak and your views appear prejudicial.

    I read all of the posts, attempting to understand what you were saying and to wade through whatever facts were presented. I also scanned a few related articles on the topic online. At first, I guessed there must be something to what you were saying. I mean why else would you say it. I couldn't find any evidence to back it up here or elsewhere though. There isn't much evidence to support what you essentially stated - which is that white middle class males are disproportionately represented in the population of shooters. So, if that isn't true, then the premise of the entire thread isn't valid.

    If you had said that all people who were guilty of these mass shootings should be treated like terrorists, that would be one thing. You didn't say that though. You specifically called out the white middle class males. Why do that? When I read comments such as the following, it makes me wonder if you might want to consider your own attitudes towards class, sex and race and whether or not they might be coloring your views.
    White men are only 32 percent of the American population. And you are an INTJ and a mod.

    Ok son.

    I think just about 80 percent of this forum is retarded about now.

  6. #116
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bamboo View Post
    I stated I'm no expert in statistics to demonstrate that I may be wrong and welcomed fact based dispute, but I provided a reasoned argument.

    I did NOT 'make up' my numbers. My hard numbers came from US Census reports. Any unclear statistics I specifically described as estimates, all of which were based on actual hard numbers.



    FWIW, I commented on this at least once. While I did see at least one person calling you racist/sexist, also FWIW, I have not. I do think your theory is misinformed. I'm not going to get into it much more than this, I think I said it all in my posts.
    White men are 32 percent of the American population. White people who include women make up the statistics you quoted.

    I feel like I am having a nightmare.

  7. #117
    amateur cartographer kquirk's Avatar
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    The salvation from your nightmare is basic statistics. You're allegedly looking into the significance of white males perpetrating 70% of mass shootings while only making up 32% of the general population. This looks like a big difference.

    The question then becomes, how much of this variation is due to gender, and how much is due to race? Since the culprit is almost always male, bringing race into it may become unnecessary, and might lead people to believe you have an agenda. Your tone and word choice don't help either.

    Quote Originally Posted by kquirk View Post
    Is the solution to public shootings to treat surviving shooters like we would foreign terrorists? Have we solved the problem of foreign terrorism by instituting "terrorist prison camps"?
    Since the title of this thread is "my solution to..." I'd still like to hear if you think your ideas will stop or decrease the rate of these crimes.
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  8. #118
    Administrator highlander's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmotini View Post
    White men are only 32 percent of the American population. And you are an INTJ and a mod.

    Ok son.

    I think just about 80 percent of this forum is retarded about now.
    Lol.

    I think the point is that half of the population are men and women don't seem to be the ones that engage in these kinds of crimes. So, we can all agree that the vast majority of perpetrators are men. Outside of that, I don't see how there is a pattern.

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  9. #119
    Senior Member Forever_Jung's Avatar
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    I'm not going to get into the social issues of thread, but statistically, I'll just chime in with a few people.

    70% of white men perpetrate these crimes, and only 32% of the total population consist of white men. Huge gap, right?

    Not really, since basically no women do the crime, this is 32/50 men we're talking about, not 32/100 people. 32/50 equals 64%.

    So if roughly 64% percent of American men are white, and roughly 70% of American shooters (who are almost all male) are white men, then it's really not a big difference.

    Therefore the issue doesn't have much to do with race, so much as it has to do with gender.
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  10. #120
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Forever_Jung View Post
    I'm not going to get into the social issues of thread, but statistically, I'll just chime in with a few people.

    70% of white men perpetrate these crimes, and only 32% of the total population consist of white men. Huge gap, right?

    Not really, since basically no women do the crime, this is 32/50 men we're talking about, not 32/100 people. 32/50 equals 64%.

    So if roughly 64% percent of American men are white, and roughly 70% of American shooters (who are almost all male) are white men, then it's really not a big difference.

    Therefore the issue doesn't have much to do with race, so much as it has to do with gender.
    I thought that was so obvious that it didn't even need to be said, but I probably overestimated the ability of some people to analyze statistics.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."
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