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  1. #1
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Default Something new is happening in the polls.

    Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first time since 2008 that Obama's ratings have been in the negatives while the generic Democratic rating has been in the positives?

    It always seemed that Democrats would ride on Obama's popular coat tails for everything, but that's no longer necessary. While in recent weeks Obama's oscillating numbers have plunged as far as a -5% spread, Democrats have only been going up. Often, sites like RealClearPolitics only update the generic congressional ballot rarely. The Democrats were at +2.3% for a while, and I was expecting to see this updated to a loss with Obama's plummeting numbers. Instead, it's been updated to + 4%. They are going in opposite directions.

    Of course politics change fast, but it's pretty good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans. If Democrats don't need Obama's popularity, it means the difference may be more innate to the parties themselves than analysts have been guessing.
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  2. #2
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    Something new is indeed happening.

    GOP Claims High Ground in 2014 Battle for the Senate

  3. #3
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Something new is indeed happening.

    GOP Claims High Ground in 2014 Battle for the Senate
    Right... but that's actually a somewhat independent thing. That has nothing to do with the generic opinion of Republicans and Democrats. That has to do with the fact that the active seats just situationally disfavor the Democrats (and we knew that as of 2008 because of the class cycles), and because several Democrats have left office and possible strong candidates have declined to run.

    Also, it's a slight inflation to say Republicans have the high ground. According to Nate Silver, Schweitzer's decline to run in Montana has officially set the GOP just short of a 50% chance of taking control.

    My bet is follows: If the election happened tomorrow, Democrats would end up with 50 or 51 seats (therefore with the help of the independent caucus) and they'd picked up a modest number of seats, like 2 or 3, in the House.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  4. #4
    Strongly Ambivalent Ivy's Avatar
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    The GOP is turning back the clock on decades of progress in my state, and not in the "small government" way that most sane Republicans want. Even their own constituents are pissed at what they're doing. I don't think it's going to go well for them.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Survive & Stay Free's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first time since 2008 that Obama's ratings have been in the negatives while the generic Democratic rating has been in the positives?

    It always seemed that Democrats would ride on Obama's popular coat tails for everything, but that's no longer necessary. While in recent weeks Obama's oscillating numbers have plunged as far as a -5% spread, Democrats have only been going up. Often, sites like RealClearPolitics only update the generic congressional ballot rarely. The Democrats were at +2.3% for a while, and I was expecting to see this updated to a loss with Obama's plummeting numbers. Instead, it's been updated to + 4%. They are going in opposite directions.

    Of course politics change fast, but it's pretty good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans. If Democrats don't need Obama's popularity, it means the difference may be more innate to the parties themselves than analysts have been guessing.
    I'm glad that this has happened, I hate personality politics but I especially thought the Obama thing was a blind alley.

    There's a mate of mine who talks about how he was the "black messiah" and couldnt quite understand what the expectations attached to him where. He isnt even an American or a conservative, so far as I know, another friend, who is American and probably fiscally and culturally conservative just used to respond to the election of Obama by saying that he believed Obama's supporters would be surprised that they still had to get a job after his election.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Right... but that's actually a somewhat independent thing. That has nothing to do with the generic opinion Republicans and Democrats. That has to do with the fact that the active seats just situationally disfavor the Democrats (and we knew that as of 2008 because of the class cycles), and because several Democrats have left office and possible strong candidates have declined to run.

    Also, it's a slight inflation to say Republicans have the high ground. According to Nate Silver, Schweitzer's decline to run in Montana has officially set the GOP just short of a 50% chance of taking control.
    Blame the headline writer for the slight inflation.

    Nate has the odds at 50/50 for the GOP having 50-51 seats in the senate in 2015.

    I would be surprised if we ended up with less than 48 or 49 seats. I expect to have 49 or 50, and would be stoked to have 51.

    Second terms are a bitch, you can't blame your predecessor anymore, you have to own the consequences of what you did in your first term, and the public generally starts getting tired of you pretty quickly.

    I'll be interested to see what the Democratic platform is in '16.

  7. #7
    Senior Member Survive & Stay Free's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivy View Post
    The GOP is turning back the clock on decades of progress in my state, and not in the "small government" way that most sane Republicans want. Even their own constituents are pissed at what they're doing. I don't think it's going to go well for them.
    What does that mean?

    I'm interested because I think that the whole "small government" thing has reached the point of insanity long ago, although I know that a lot of people will vote as "fiscal conservatives" and republicans in the US have exploited, probably created it themselves deliberately, the distinction between fiscal and cultural conservatives.

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    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Correct me if I'm wrong, but is this the first time since 2008 that Obama's ratings have been in the negatives while the generic Democratic rating has been in the positives?

    It always seemed that Democrats would ride on Obama's popular coat tails for everything, but that's no longer necessary. While in recent weeks Obama's oscillating numbers have plunged as far as a -5% spread, Democrats have only been going up. Often, sites like RealClearPolitics only update the generic congressional ballot rarely. The Democrats were at +2.3% for a while, and I was expecting to see this updated to a loss with Obama's plummeting numbers. Instead, it's been updated to + 4%. They are going in opposite directions.

    Of course politics change fast, but it's pretty good news for Democrats and bad news for Republicans. If Democrats don't need Obama's popularity, it means the difference may be more innate to the parties themselves than analysts have been guessing.
    Obama is losing ground because he's losing the support of young people over this whole surveillance thing. A lot of young people voted for him because he said he was going to change the course of the country after the Bush administration, and with the revelations thanks to Snowden we now know that's not true.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  9. #9
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Blame the headline writer for the slight inflation.

    Nate has the odds at 50/50 for the GOP having 50-51 seats in the senate in 2015.

    I would be surprised if we ended up with less than 48 or 49 seats. I expect to have 49 or 50, and would be stoked to have 51.
    If I were a Republican, I'd be worried about the fact that it's practically a rule at this point that the party will under-perform by three seats.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Second terms are a bitch, you can't blame your predecessor anymore, you have to own the consequences of what you did in your first term, and the public generally starts getting tired of you pretty quickly.

    I'll be interested to see what the Democratic platform is in '16.
    I wouldn't be surprised if it's the same. The whole political system has stagnated, frozen in time! I expect they will use the same old platform. Republicans gave us this problems, Republican obstructionism is keeping us from fixing the problem fast enough, and if you feel like handing the keys back to the GOP, just remember they are even crazier assholes now than they were during the Bush administration. Not only do I expect them to use that again, I expect that it still has a fair chance of working, because it still appears to be true.

    I've long said that the Democrats are incompetent strategists. I still say that. It's just that the Republican party has been giving them all the unforced errors anyone could hope for. Furthermore, as little faith as I have in humanity, I really do think the Republican platform is just repulsive enough to make a difference.

    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Obama is losing ground because he's losing the support of young people over this whole surveillance thing. A lot of young people voted for him because he said he was going to change the course of the country after the Bush administration, and with the revelations thanks to Snowden we now know that's not true.
    I agree. Everything the Republicans were trying to throw at Obama before this had no meaningful impact on his ratings. This is significant because
    1: The source prevents it from looking like a partisan smear.
    2: Because it is upsetting to a significant part of Obama's base, as you say.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Obama is losing ground because he's losing the support of young people over this whole surveillance thing. A lot of young people voted for him because he said he was going to change the course of the country after the Bush administration, and with the revelations thanks to Snowden we now know that's not true.
    Without Obama at the top of the ticket, I think Democrats are much more vulnerable than they realize.

    Whether it's Hillary or Biden, I expect to see a statistically relevant decrease in the turnout of nonwhite Democratic voters, and the young (who liked being a part of history in '08). Hillary has been polling so well because Sec. State is a non partisan position.

    We have no idea what her platform will be. As of now she gets to enjoy all the benefits of being a Clinton (name recognition and association with Bill's presidency) with none of the drawbacks of being a politician (having to explain your platform and give a compelling argument as to why it is the best for the American people).

    Given that, I think polling approval ratings 3.5 years out from a Presidential election is a crap shoot at best.

    Currently, the wave is finally receding from it's high water mark in '08. That being said we can still fuck it up, although I don't expect us to do so. We might not win in '16, but expect a much more effective campaign than '12.

    Either way it won't be the end of the world, Rand Paul started the GOP renewal with his March drone filibuster. We'll get back to where we need to be.

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