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  1. #11
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Without Obama at the top of the ticket, I think Democrats are much more vulnerable than they realize.
    My very observation in this thread is that we have perhaps been over-estimating their dependency on Obama.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Whether it's Hillary or Biden, I expect to see a statistically relevant decrease in the turnout of nonwhite Democratic voters, and the young (who liked being a part of history in '08). Hillary has been polling so well because Sec. State is a non partisan position.
    Hillary will have the largest vote advantage amongst women in history.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Either way it won't be the end of the world, Rand Paul started the GOP renewal with his March drone filibuster. We'll get back to where we need to be.
    What is he supposed to do? I hope you aren't counting on him to be president.

    It is true that victories for the Dems in 2016 are rough just because of the shear length of incumbency at that point. It would be the first time Democrats won three in a row since FDR. The first time anyone's done it since Bush Sr. So, it's almost inherently stacked against them at the presidential level. However, it's make or break for Republicans. If it somehow did turn out that Hillary wins, Democrats maintain the senate, and take control of the house, I think the Republican party as we know it will cease to exist. So, they have give this their all.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    My very observation in this thread is that we have perhaps been over-estimating their dependency on Obama.
    And I think you're gravely mistaken.

    Hillary will have the largest vote advantage amongst women in history.
    I don't see her bringing nearly as many voters out of the woodwork as Obama. If she was the candidate in '08 maybe. Being the first Woman would be a big deal.

    But being the first woman (an older white one at that) after the first Black man, doesn't have nearly the same zing. Also, her drawing power among women of color (and those of color generally) will not be a strong as Obama's ability to pull white women.

    Married white women will still break for the GOP as will other groups of women that commonly vote GOP.

    What is he supposed to do? I hope you aren't counting on him to be president.
    He's supposed to continue to soften the GOP foreign policy position (as he already has), continue to bring up drug law reform (and mandatory sentencing), and generally just be a breath of fresh intellectual air for the party.

    He's currently out polling Rubio which is a big deal no matter how you look at it (although Rubios polling is suffering for his immigration participation).

    Rand Paul is on the short list for the '16 GOP nomination.

    It is true that victories for the Dems in 2016 are rough just because of the shear length of incumbency at that point. It would be the first time Democrats won three in a row since FDR. The first time anyone's done it since Bush Sr. So, it's almost inherently stacked against them at the presidential level. However, it's make or break for Republicans. If it somehow did turn out that Hillary wins, Democrats maintain the senate, and take control of the house, I think the Republican party as we know it will cease to exist. So, they have give this their all.
    It's not make or break. Dem's lost '80, '84, and '88 and it wasn't the end of the world for you guys. I just took you three presidential losses to get your shit together.

    Let's not speculate on the make up of congress in '16 when we haven't even gotten to '14 yet.

    The political winds are shifting. They were going your way through 2012, but they seem to be changing direction.

    At this point I would really be hoping the ACA pans out if I were you.

  3. #13
    Strongly Ambivalent Ivy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    What does that mean?

    I'm interested because I think that the whole "small government" thing has reached the point of insanity long ago, although I know that a lot of people will vote as "fiscal conservatives" and republicans in the US have exploited, probably created it themselves deliberately, the distinction between fiscal and cultural conservatives.
    In my state, Republicans took control of the legislature by running on a "small government" platform, promising that they would cut waste and focus on improving our state economy and create new jobs. Instead, they've gone on a spree of personal liberty-limiting legislation e.g. laws that will close women's health centers concealed within unrelated bills, and they're EXPANDING state government control (example: they're trying to take control of municipal airports and water systems in an effort to dilute the power of Democratic mayors). And our economy still sucks and there are still more job-seekers than there are jobs. As you point out, they ran on a fiscal conservative platform and are governing on a cultural conservative one. People are mad as hell and I don't think they'll be relying on Obama's influence to come to the polls.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivy View Post
    In my state, Republicans took control of the legislature by running on a "small government" platform, promising that they would cut waste and focus on improving our state economy and create new jobs. Instead, they've gone on a spree of personal liberty-limiting legislation e.g. laws that will close women's health centers concealed within unrelated bills, and they're EXPANDING government control (example: they're trying to take control of municipal airports and water systems in an effort to dilute the power of Democratic mayors). As you point out, they ran on a fiscal conservative platform and are governing on a cultural conservative one. People are mad as hell and I don't think they'll be relying on Obama's influence to come to the polls.
    This interests me because I dont know where the US electorate can go from here when this sort of thing happens, I dont think there is going to be the sort of fragmentation in conservative politics that there has been in conservative opinion. What do you do if you want to vote fiscally conservative and avoid the smuggled in stuff? Or if you want to vote for a liberal cultural agenda without a smuggled in fiscally liberal agenda?

    The conservatives in all the major political parties in the UK share a fiscal policy consensus but are all pretty much up holding a cultural consensus too which is broadly speaking liberal or libertarian, so its a similar problem here.

    There are a lot of "politically homeless" people out there and no representation for them. My fear is that there will be further charlatans to take advantage of that. Its a pretty good question actually and a real question of democracy and democratic accountability. I suspect, when I read about stuff like the Citibank Plutonomy Memos, that not all of the office holders are that interested in it but that's my bias, the UK will be the future if you ask me, the "political management" which holds here will hold everywhere else eventually.

  5. #15
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    And I think you're gravely mistaken.
    Okay, but the position I'm taking is the only one I've seen some sort of sign for.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    I don't see her bringing nearly as many voters out of the woodwork as Obama. If she was the candidate in '08 maybe. Being the first Woman would be a big deal.

    But being the first woman (an older white one at that) after the first Black man, doesn't have nearly the same zing.
    Ahaha! You completely misunderstand the thinking involved in this, in exactly the way I'd expect of you as both a person and a Republican. It's not some kind of cute novelty that people will passover. And no woman or person who cares about womens' rights will some how see a black man getting elected as a compensation.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Also, her drawing power among women of color (and those of color generally) will not be a strong as Obama's ability to pull white women.
    On what do you base this analysis?

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Married white women will still break for the GOP as will other groups of women that commonly vote GOP.
    They will break less, and groups like single women will abandon the GOP candidate even more than Romney (amazingly). And because women are a much larger population than blacks, smaller advantages make a bigger difference.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    He's supposed to continue to soften the GOP foreign policy position (as he already has), continue to bring up drug law reform (and mandatory sentencing), and generally just be a breath of fresh intellectual air for the party.

    He's currently out polling Rubio which is a big deal no matter how you look at it (although Rubios polling is suffering for his immigration participation).

    Rand Paul is on the short list for the '16 GOP nomination.
    Every poll I've seen matching him against Hillary, he gets hammered. I even keep finding state polls showing him losing to Biden.

    Republicans, nominate Chris Christie. For fuck sake, nominate Chris Christie. He's in the lead of the Republicans, and it's no surprise he's in the lead.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    It's not make or break. Dem's lost '80, '84, and '88 and it wasn't the end of the world for you guys. I just took you three presidential losses to get your shit together.
    Democrats controlled the House that entire time and the Senate much of that time. People need to stop lumping every thing onto the oval office.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    Let's not speculate on the make up of congress in '16 when we haven't even gotten to '14 yet.
    There's a fair amount of political information already available for that time, and it's harder than things like polls. It tells that even if the Republicans wind up with 51 or 52 seats in 2014, they will have a hard time keeping control in 2016.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    The political winds are shifting. They were going your way through 2012, but they seem to be changing direction.
    I grant that winds may change, but they have to change a hell of a lot to give Republicans a good chance in the senate in 2016.

    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    At this point I would really be hoping the ACA pans out if I were you.
    I'm half inclined to hope it doesn't so we can reset and get some real universal health care.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  6. #16
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    Fuck.

    I just lost a post that I had been writing for an hour and a half.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivy View Post
    The GOP is turning back the clock on decades of progress in my state, and not in the "small government" way that most sane Republicans want. Even their own constituents are pissed at what they're doing. I don't think it's going to go well for them.
    I may be ignorant of factors unique to NC, but I thought that Republicans in southern states got elected because of the things taking place there instead of despite them. Have they finally gone far enough to alienate even evangelicals? Are they losing the moral authority bestowed by being the "Christian" party?
    Everybody have fun tonight. Everybody Wang Chung tonight.

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  8. #18
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EffEmDoubleyou View Post
    I may be ignorant of factors unique to NC, but I thought that Republicans in southern states got elected because of the things taking place there instead of despite them. Have they finally gone far enough to alienate even evangelicals? Are they losing the moral authority bestowed by being the "Christian" party?
    NC is of a slightly different makeup I think. It's also why the GOP has been having serious trouble with VA in recent years.
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  9. #19
    my floof is luxury Wind Up Rex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ivy View Post
    The GOP is turning back the clock on decades of progress in my state, and not in the "small government" way that most sane Republicans want. Even their own constituents are pissed at what they're doing. I don't think it's going to go well for them.
    Oh. You don't happen to live in Texas as well, do you?
    And so long as you haven’t experienced this: to die and so to grow,
    you are only a troubled guest on the dark earth

  10. #20
    Strongly Ambivalent Ivy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wind-Up Rex View Post
    Oh. You don't happen to live in Texas as well, do you?
    Nope, just Texas's annoying little sister NC.

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