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  1. #11
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by sprinkles View Post
    Manufactured goods are a bubble anyway. It's just been a really long lasting one. Intellectual property was also never meant to act as a money generating right of some kind - it's for the most part meant to be an incentive to innovate and invest in production which has inherent risks. When anyone can make something, the risk is eliminated, and therefore the need for IP as it pertains to patented items and such is also eliminated.

    Being able to make your own stuff gives freedom if you ask me. There might be less job types in the future but ideally there will also be less need to work and less need to spend money to survive.
    I don't think you're being realistic about the impact this will have. It will require a societal shift that I hope to God we'll be able to make when the time comes without violence.
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  2. #12
    Mojibake sprinkles's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    I don't think you're being realistic about the impact this will have. It will require a societal shift that I hope to God we'll be able to make when the time comes without violence.
    Well, I did say it was ideally.

    Realistically, something else will get in the way well before this becomes an issue.

    But then again, the 2D home printer didn't put industrial printers out of business, and they've been around forever. Industry will still have giant printers that can do large things or 100 small things at a time, which is something that the average user will not want to mess with.

  3. #13
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    re: printing of circuitry. http://hackaday.com/2012/05/22/3d-pr...onductive-ink/

    it's been done for years now
    /facepalm

    The video you linked was of a 3d printer effectively etching a PCB. There is nothing particularly remarkable about that. Sure, it's cool and hobbyists will enjoy that function of 3d printers, but that is a far cry from fabricating complex semiconductors, which is what I was talking about.

    There are numerous reasons why CPUs will not be fabricated using this technology for a long time, here are a few:
    1. Heat. Silicon melts at 2500F.
    2. Resolution. The current resolution of these printers is around 16um. You know when companies like Intel were fabricating semiconductors that large? 1971. Intel is currently fabricating at 22nm. That's close to a thousand times smaller.
    3. Dust.

    So here's my greater point. With electronics, people always want the new best thing. Products manufactured in 2011 are already "old". So while 3d printing is cool, it's not going to promote the type of change in electronics manufacturing that the sponge is talking about. It's going to be something that appeals to hobbyists/enthusiasts and industry (to help reduce cost).
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  4. #14
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    /facepalm

    The video you linked was of a 3d printer effectively etching a PCB. There is nothing particularly remarkable about that. Sure, it's cool and hobbyists will enjoy that function of 3d printers, but that is a far cry from fabricating complex semiconductors, which is what I was talking about.

    There are numerous reasons why CPUs will not be fabricated using this technology for a long time, here a few:
    1. Heat. Silicon melts at 2500F.
    2. Resolution. The current resolution of these printers is around 16um. You know when companies like Intel were fabricating semiconductors that large? 1971. Intel is currently fabricating at 22nm. That's close to a thousand times smaller.
    3. Dust.

    So here's my greater point. With electronics, people always want the new best thing. Products manufactured in 2011 are already "old". So while 3d printing is cool, it's not going to promote the type of change in electronics manufacturing that the sponge is talking about. It's going to be something that appeals to hobbyists/enthusiasts and industry (to help reduce cost).
    I don't think electronics manufacturing is the only problem though, this is all part of a larger trend in which jobs are being subtracted from the economy overall with gains in technology especially in developed economies. As @sprinkles said these sectors still remain viable, just like manufacturing itself has remained viable since the industrial revolution albeit with a tenth of work force.

    http://www.typologycentral.com/forum...ar-2030-a.html

    You actually seemed to agree in a thread I started on the subject awhile back. My point is not "all jobs will cease." But, if unemployment rises to say.. 30% you don't think that would have a marked impact on the economy. Or if we keep near full employment (like we have now when compared to historical levels) ,with most forced to survive on subsistence wages? I don't think this even touches on how white collar jobs can be erased by advances in ai.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/media/2012...-news-industry

    I don't think it will be just journalists either, but also things like day traders and other tasks that are easily computable. That is why since about 2008 there have been many think tanks, policy groups, people in academia, etc focused on the existential risk posed by the increases in technology. Cambridge being a notable example

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2188221.html

    Perhaps what you're saying is correct, but in my opinion the technology is just at its nascent stages much like computing in the 60s. It will continue to put pressure on retailers who've been struggling for years to survive. Hell, it may even put wal-mart out of business because most cheap crap could be manufactured at home. Even without some "collapse" it will undoubtedly create a paradigm shift in society especially because terrorists/everybody may one day be able to manufacture their own weapons

    http://www.extremetech.com/extreme/1...-hot-to-handle
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  5. #15
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    has remained viable since the industrial revolution albeit with a tenth of work force.
    The same work is produced by 1/10 of the population; we just produce 10x more. Ultimately these 3d printing machines will redirect "labour" from other areas, if they are "efficient" at making things we want. I certainly believe they are; at least compared to Ikea and so forth. What it replaces remains to be seen though.

    I don't think it will be just journalists either, but also things like day traders and other tasks that are easily computable. That is why since about 2008 there have been many think tanks, policy groups, people in academia, etc focused on the existential risk posed by the increases in technology. Cambridge being a notable example
    I disagree with the overall principle. Lets say that we did reach a scarcity free world. What remains of the human condition? The most notable thing, at the moment, is [i]social status[i]. It's just one component of the social need but the largest and most obvious. We are already into this transformation. Almost everything we buy has marketing "added value" in it.

    This creates the demand for labour. It's the commodification of showing off. It doesn't really matter how much we can create, so long as we remain human the demand for what goods represent to us will remain. Of course, it may be digital goods too, which is a different kind of thing, and likely to surpass the material world, but that's what I mean by 3d printing being at the tail end of the industrial revolution.

    Even without some "collapse" it will undoubtedly create a paradigm shift in society especially because terrorists/everybody may one day be able to manufacture their own weapons
    This is really significant and often misunderstood. A 3d printer doesn't have to be able to print out the object itself. It can be the foundation for molds, for instance. You could create the object out of plastic, then use clay/ceramics/plaster to form a mold of the object to produce items out of non-standard materials. It's surprising how easy this is to do with even relatively "difficult" materials.

    Guns have already been made with 3d printers, for instance. More advanced versions have been done with simple added materials (metal tubes that simply slide in and lock). In some places, like Canada, this could be a big deal. In others, like the US, not such a big deal.

  6. #16
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    UniqueMixture, I'm talking specifically about Magic Poriferan's topic, 3d printers and whether or not they will "end the economy as we know it". The economy as we know it will eventually end and 3d printers will probably be a part of it, but some people greatly overstate their importance.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  7. #17
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    @Lateralus fair enough. what about the point about the impact on retailers and manufacturers of non-complex goods. Here is another big one the impact on the fashion industry!
    @ptgatsby I think you're underestimating how much turbulence periods of extreme technological advancement tend to bring. The closest in time we can examine is the industrial revolution which you have to think about the geopolitical and military impact of it as well as the economic impact. You can even see it with agriculture, the wheel, crop rotation, gunpowder, bronze, iron, roads, the arch, etc etc
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  8. #18
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    I think you're underestimating how much turbulence periods of extreme technological advancement tend to bring. The closest in time we can examine is the industrial revolution which you have to think about the geopolitical and military impact of it as well as the economic impact. You can even see it with agriculture, the wheel, crop rotation, gunpowder, bronze, iron, roads, the arch, etc etc
    I don't disagree with you entirely, I think it's a pretty big deal.

    But it isn't revolutionary. It's an extension of what already existed. That certainly doesn't minimize what it can do - phones and computer merging is similar - but most of the dreams of revolution come from nano or molecular assembly that is impossible. Anything we can make in micro, from a universal material, can be better produced in bulk and with specific materials and machining. It's only those things that are not mass produced that will have a significant impact: specialty items. It'll have quite a few large social impacts (made my own iphone case, and as you mentioned, weapons), but it's just not on the same level as agricultural or industrial revolutions. Maybe crop rotation is a good analogy. It's just an evolution of the existing era.

    The overall umbrella - microfabrication - is very serious, don't get me wrong. However, I don't consider 3d printers to be front runners in that category. The real evolution is in microfabrication of specialized units, such as robots printing robots. This requires a dozen or so specific sub-assemblies (of assemblers). These, however, are just an extension of fabrication lines. They are going to be beyond the average person (technically as well as financially), and dedicated, just like existing lines.

    Don't get me wrong though, it's significant. But this one is transient, IMO. It's not the end or the start of a major revolution, it's one that has been progressing for a long time and will fork several more times.

  9. #19
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    @Lateralus fair enough. what about the point about the impact on retailers and manufacturers of non-complex goods. Here is another big one the impact on the fashion industry!
    Anything individuals can make with a 3d printer, a business will be able to make for a cheaper price due to economies of scale.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  10. #20
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Anything individuals can make with a 3d printer, a business will be able to make for a cheaper price due to economies of scale.
    The flip side is that economy of scale has a higher initial cost and won't produce small-runs (unique, low quantities, evolution, prototyping) because it isn't profitable.

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