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  1. #1
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Default China vs Japan arms race

    http://www.cnas.org/node/9167

    I don't know if you guys follow international affairs much, but if you do you have probably heard of the dispute between China and Japan over the Senkaku islands which Japan 'bought' though China still claims as sovereign territory. This was escalated by China launching it's first aircraft carrier recently leading to a growing Japanese nationalism and a swing to the right with the fear of an arms race between the powers. What do you guys think of this? What should the united states, EU, the west's response be? Best case worst case projections?
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  2. #2
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    I wouldn't be surprised if the West are forced to side with China on this issue. Japan is an important ally of Western nations but that's as far as it goes. China don't appear to want this to let this go even though Japan are technically in the "right" but the West care more about saving their own butts. Would they be able to afford spurning the country which is looking more and more like the power supply to their life support machines?

    On a different note: Isn't China in the UN security council whilst Japan isn't? Could the UN end up influencing the decision in China's favour (or is that outside the realm of possibility?)

  3. #3
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Standuble View Post
    China don't appear to want this to let this go even though Japan are technically in the "right" but the West care more about saving their own butts. Would they be able to afford spurning the country which is looking more and more like the power supply to their life support machines?

    On a different note: Isn't China in the UN security council whilst Japan isn't? Could the UN end up influencing the decision in China's favour (or is that outside the realm of possibility?)
    ??

    US is on sec council and can veto any referendum just like china has been doing over syria
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  4. #4
    & Badger, Ratty and Toad Mole's Avatar
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    China is Australia's largest trading partner and the USA is our best friend, so our nightmare is war between China and the USA.

    We dodged a bullet when Mitt Romney failed to get elected, however as I write we have the the USA Secretary of State and the Secretary of Defence conducting high level talks in Perth, Western Australia about security in the Asian, Indian Ocean and Pacific regions..

    The USA is stationing Marines, planes, drones, warships and submarines in Australia. China is unhappy with this and expressed this in surprisingly strong terms.

    We see China, as well as India and South East Asia, as industrialising for the first time. We believe we should help them industrialise with raw materials, good environmental practice and the rule of law. However this depends to a considerable degree on good relations with the USA.

    Australia has not only good relations with the USA but excellent relations, as evidenced by the sharing of USA global intelligence with Australia at the highest level.

    And being recently elected to the Security Council of the United Nations Australia can play an important diplomatic role between the USA and China.

    We don't want to overplay our importance, but on the other hand we recognise we punch above our weight diplomatically.

  5. #5
    royal member Rasofy's Avatar
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    I think the other nations will stay over the fence and Japan will ultimately give up - which would set an alarming precedent.

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    I thought this said " @chana vs Japanese arms race"
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  7. #7
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasofy View Post
    I think the other nations will stay over the fence and Japan will ultimately give up - which would set an alarming precedent.
    I fear this is true and that China will grow overconfident and begin expanding on minor powers.
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  8. #8
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rasofy View Post
    I think the other nations will stay over the fence and Japan will ultimately give up - which would set an alarming precedent.
    I'm not so sure about Japan giving up (they've showed a remarkable stubborness about their dispute over the islands taken by Russia after WWII, for example).... Obama has signaled that he prioritizes Asia and the Pacific as far as projecting hard power goes, so hopefully he'll strongly support them and other nations surrounding China during these disputes, which benifits us at least three ways; containing China, preserving alliances with Asia/Pacific states, and keeping the shipping routes (especially the vital Straight of Malacca) free from the threat of closure. Besides, I'm enough of a 'neo-conservative' to view as a moral imperative the protection of democratic allies (especially ones we have decades-old mutual defense treaties with) from the depredations of an authoritarian power.

    A potential kink in the works is the 'fiscal cliff'....

  9. #9
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    I fear this is true and that China will grow overconfident and begin expanding on minor powers.
    China doesn't project its power through expanding on minor powers; they are already achieving resource dominance through economic force projection.

    Examples include attempting to stranglehold rare earth minerals to force production into China, virtual nationalisation of South African mines and inroads into ownership and control of energy sources. The goal here is to allow continuous economic growth inside China; the end game for them is the largest industrialised (progressing towards tech-age) country in the world.

    Military force is for security and nationalism. It's not their national strategy.

    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I'm not so sure about Japan giving up (they've showed a remarkable stubborness about their dispute over the islands taken by Russia after WWII, for example)....
    Japan certainly won't give up. Barring any significant tail-end events, both countries view nationalist topics as a matter of form. Neither side wants the problem resolved in any condition, certainly not peacefully and not violently. It may be put aside, but it'll flare up whenever there is need on one side or the other.

    Of course, anything like this could expand, but it's not a "serious" individual issue. Not "serious" doesn't mean the ratchet effect can't make it so eventually, but it's more an indication of the larger political arena (domestic and international).

  10. #10
    royal member Rasofy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I'm not so sure about Japan giving up (they've showed a remarkable stubborness about their dispute over the islands taken by Russia after WWII, for example)
    Problem is Japan wouldn't have many options if China threatens to use military force... and China won't be using water cannons, that much I'm sure of. Also, I think the japanese culture has changed a lot since WW2. They became quite peaceful after that imperialist phase.

    Obama has signaled that he prioritizes Asia and the Pacific as far as projecting hard power goes, so hopefully he'll strongly support them and other nations surrounding China during these disputes, which benifits us at least three ways; containing China, preserving alliances with Asia/Pacific states, and keeping the shipping routes (especially the vital Straight of Malacca) free from the threat of closure. Besides, I'm enough of a 'neo-conservative' to view as a moral imperative the protection of democratic allies (especially ones we have decades-old mutual defense treaties with) from the depredations of an authoritarian power.

    A potential kink in the works is the 'fiscal cliff'....
    Interesting. I agree with you.

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