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  1. #1
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Projections Put Whites in Minority in U.S. by 2050

    Without new immigrants, by the middle of the century the nation’s population would begin to decline, the elderly would account for nearly one in four Americans and non-Hispanic whites would remain a majority, according to new projections by the Census Bureau.

    But if immigration were to merely slow, rather than stop, non-Hispanic whites, who now account for nearly two-thirds of the population, would become a minority by 2050, according to the projections released Wednesday. If the pace of immigration increases, that benchmark could be reached as early as 2040.

    Depending on the pace of international migration, the nation’s population, currently at 308 million, could grow to as much as 458 million by midcentury, with immigrants accounting for up to 136 million of the increase.

    Since 2000, the population has been growing by just under one million immigrants annually. The bureau’s lower estimates assume a range of 1.1 million to 1.8 million; the higher estimates range from 1.5 million to 2.4 million.

    Even if no new immigrants arrived, said William H. Frey, a demographer with the Brookings Institution, the Hispanic share of the population would rise from about 14 percent in 2010 to between 21 percent (with no further immigration) and 31 percent (with the highest projected immigration) in 2050.

    Similarly, without any immigration, minorities would still constitute a majority of the population under age 5 in 2050, because of higher birth rates among Hispanic people already living here. If immigration continues, black, Hispanic and Asian children will become a majority of young children sometime between 2019 and 2023, according to the latest projections.


    What do you guys think about this? How will this change the country? What impact will this have on politics? What social/cultural change do you think this will bring about? If you live in another country how do you foresee this impacting your country's relationship with the US and/or how your personal interaction with the US and/or the US's relationship with the world/foreign policy?
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  2. #2
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    Short lazy answer -

    Ideals/Cultures define its people, which schools have a lot to do with. So if they are brought up on - taught at a very young age - American ideals/culture Americans will remain Americans.

    Teach the children to love their nation, their freedom, their equal rights, their democracy etc

    Very lazy reply indeed.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    What do you guys think about this? How will this change the country? What impact will this have on politics? What social/cultural change do you think this will bring about? If you live in another country how do you foresee this impacting your country's relationship with the US and/or how your personal interaction with the US and/or the US's relationship with the world/foreign policy?
    It spells the end of the Republican party (assuming it doesn't radically redefine itself).
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  4. #4
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    It spells the end of the Republican party (assuming it doesn't radically redefine itself).
    We'll see; right now, the only redefining necessary for a stable winning coalition is on the issue (and particularly the rhetoric regarding) illegal immigration....its a substantial short-term difficulty, but hardly insurmountable.

    Edit: As for the future, 'white' and hispanic populations are likely to inter-marry into a melting pot outside of ethnic enclaves, much like in Texas north of Galveston (and outside of the inner cities); I think the long-term dangers to the Republican party from hispanic immigration/birth rates are highly exaggerated, though there is a distinct problem in the short-to-medium term.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    We'll see; right now, the only redefining necessary for a stable winning coalition is on the issue (and particularly the rhetoric regarding) illegal immigration....its a substantial short-term difficulty, but hardly insurmountable.

    Edit: As for the future, 'white' and hispanic populations are likely to inter-marry into a melting pot outside of ethnic enclaves, much like in Texas north of Galveston (and outside of the inner cities); I think the long-term dangers to the Republican party from hispanic immigration/birth rates are highly exaggerated, though there is a distinct problem in the short-to-medium term.
    No, it's going to take more than just a change on illegal immigration to get Hispanics to support Republicans on a large scale. The Republican stance on economic issues like health care must also change. And I believe it is insurmountable. I don't think the Republicans will ever compromise. They've moved further to the right each election cycle for the last 30+ years. I expect them to be even more extreme in 2014, with even more religious craziness mixed in. I don't know how anyone can believe any differently. Tom Tancredo and Rick Santorum speak for a huge portion of Republicans.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    No, it's going to take more than just a change on illegal immigration to get Hispanics to support Republicans on a large scale. The Republican stance on economic issues like health care must also change. And I believe it is insurmountable. I don't think the Republicans will ever compromise. They've moved further to the right each election cycle for the last 30+ years. I expect them to be even more extreme in 2014, with even more religious craziness mixed in. I don't know how anyone can believe any differently. Tom Tancredo and Rick Santorum speak for a huge portion of Republicans.
    Come now... I would expect you to be more open to opposing viewpoints than that.

    As to the rest...


    Never say never.

  7. #7
    pathwise dependent FDG's Avatar
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    Who cares, most hispanics are kinda white anyway. Before that, there were the indians - azns. History.
    ENTj 7-3-8 sx/sp

  8. #8
    Senior Member JivinJeffJones's Avatar
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    From what I gather hispanics are largely Christian, which gives some strong common ground for a future reconciliation-of-necessity with the republicans. If it were muslims flooding in and building towards a majority the cultural impact would be far more profound.

  9. #9
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JivinJeffJones View Post
    From what I gather hispanics are largely Christian, which gives some strong common ground for a future reconciliation-of-necessity with the republicans. If it were muslims flooding in and building towards a majority the cultural impact would be far more profound.
    A Hispanic Catholic is a very different creature from an Anglo-Saxon Protestant. Everything outside of abortion and gay marriage is basically a clash of values. So that would have to be overcome only after Republicans drop the hostile anti-immigration stuff.

    I think somewhere down the road, starting probably with 2024, Democrats would be wise to nominate a Hispanic president and make a big power play for the Hispanic vote, particularly in the southwest. If Lateralus is right and the Republican party because politically irrelevant, I suspect it could stem from Democrats turnings the southwest into their own playground, even Texas (you heard me).
    Go to sleep, iguana.


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  10. #10
    Senior Member JivinJeffJones's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    A Hispanic Catholic is a very different creature from an Anglo-Saxon Protestant. Everything outside of abortion and gay marriage is basically a clash of values. So that would have to be overcome only after Republicans drop the hostile anti-immigration stuff.
    True, but Romney is a Mormon. A mormon! I can't imagine anglo-saxon protestants being more in favour of mormonism than catholicism. The doctrinal differences between Catholicism and protestantism are negligible compared to those between protestantism and mormonism. If religion is a key voting consideration for the average republican I'd think electing a catholic would be an easy sell after putting a mormon on the ticket.

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