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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #1
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Default 2012 United States Presidential Election Predictions!

    The time is upon us. Cast your vote for who you think will win the presidency!

    Want to make an "educated" guess?
    Try here: www.realclearpolitics.com
    or here: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

    Want to include a cool prediction graphic?
    Try here: http://www.270towin.com


    My prediction:

    Obama will win the electoral college and Romney will win the popular vote:

    Romney: 49.5%
    Obama: 49%

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  2. #2
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    I think Obama will take both but it'll be a squeaker
    For all that we have done, as a civilization, as individuals, the universe is not stable, and nor is any single thing within it. Stars consume themselves, the universe itself rushes apart, and we ourselves are composed of matter in constant flux. Colonies of cells in temporary alliance, replicating and decaying and housed within, an incandescent cloud of electrical impulses. This is reality, this is self knowledge, and the perception of it will, of course, make you dizzy.

  3. #3
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by UniqueMixture View Post
    I think Obama will take both but it'll be a squeaker
    Yeah, the polls have just been too crazy to trust them.

    And I still think the voting is more about "Obama vs. Not Obama" rather than "Obama vs. Romney." What's amusing is that Bush still pulled out in 2004 under the same onus... except Kerry happened to have about as much personality as Romney.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  4. #4
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    I've been really interested in the polling data for this election, primarily because the results seem to indicate that, due to the auto-bailout and other local politics, there is a skewness in the way certain voting populations are behaving in response to Obama's presidency. There is an overall pull toward the Republican ticket, with certain states, like Ohio, having more inertia.

    What follows is a simplified projection I created, using the available national polling data and polling data for battleground states. Projections for battleground states use aggregate polling data and 2008 percentages for voters who voted for either Obama or McCain (since certain states have higher numbers of non-main-party voters). Projections for non-battleground states are "backed-into" via a linear shift from 2008 results such that the national percentage approximately matches the national polling data. Thus, we achieve, in effect, a situation where all current polling data, both at the national and state (for battleground only) level, is accurate.

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  5. #5
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    The polling data was skewed heavily Obama before Debate #1 and seemingly shifted HEAVILY Romney after. While Romney did well in that first debate in terms of how he approached it, I have trouble believing all those polls were solidly in Obama's favor and then could literally shift overnight without any return after the second and third debates.

    IOW, either the polls were mucked up before the debates (i.e., too pro-Obama) and things were much closer; or the polls are wrong right now (and the vote won't go in Romney's favor as much as expected). But something isn't right in the polling. That is just too much a hell of a swing to occur with a 1-2 day period, short of Obama admitting he molests children or murdered Natalee Holloway or something equally insane.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  6. #6

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    I am wondering if you can account for election tampering in these predictions. I remember some weirdness in the 2000 election
    *actually this was the first time I experienced poll-workers trying to systematically deny voters based on ethnicity, and this year the state I experience this in is a swing state. (it wasn't then)

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  7. #7
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    The polling data was skewed heavily Obama before Debate #1 and seemingly shifted HEAVILY Romney after. While Romney did well in that first debate in terms of how he approached it, I have trouble believing all those polls were solidly in Obama's favor and then could literally shift overnight without any return after the second and third debates.

    IOW, either the polls were mucked up before the debates (i.e., too pro-Obama) and things were much closer; or the polls are wrong right now (and the vote won't go in Romney's favor as much as expected). But something isn't right in the polling. That is just too much a hell of a swing to occur with a 1-2 day period, short of Obama admitting he molests children or murdered Natalee Holloway or something equally insane.
    Often times the first presidential debate is a good chance for a challenger to prove himself to the voting population. Obama's approval and favorability ratings did not decline after the first debate, but Romney's shot up. Something to think about.




    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    I am wondering if you can account for election tampering in these predictions. I remember some weirdness in the 2000 election
    *actually this was the first time I experienced poll-workers trying to systematically deny voters based on ethnicity, and this year the state I experience this in is a swing state. (it wasn't then)
    Haha. I don't think there exists a grain of salt large enough to accompany the consumption of my "prediction" above. Let's just say it was an exercise in the hypothetical, with some basis in reality. A linear adjustment for all non-battleground states is a gross oversimplification.
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  8. #8
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    Can someone start another poll about whether we go to civil war after #3 happens?

  9. #9

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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Can someone start another poll about whether we go to civil war after #3 happens?
    That poll should include the option for a peaceful split of the nation where states can vote which new country they would like to be in.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
    Robot Fusion
    "As our island of knowledge grows, so does the shore of our ignorance." John Wheeler
    "[A] scientist looking at nonscientific problems is just as dumb as the next guy." Richard Feynman
    "[P]etabytes of [] data is not the same thing as understanding emergent mechanisms and structures." Jim Crutchfield

  10. #10
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    That poll should include the option for a peaceful split of the nation where states can vote which new country they would like to be in.
    *laments his fortune as a red voter who'd rather be in a blue state*

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