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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #81
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Presidential policies aside, a part of me really wants to see an Obama victory next week. Not just any victory, but a victory consistent with polling data. The reason is quite simple: a Romney victory that flies in the face of polling data will, to some, be proof of a massive conspiracy by the media and pollsters in favor of a liberal candidate. It isn't that I would be resistant to believing the polling data is wrong, only that I believe the implications aren't tied with fraud or partisanship, but with the difficulty that comes with predicting uncertain events. I'm tired of hearing about people rejecting information because 1) it isn't consistent with what they want to believe; and 2) they've had their ability to think critically clouded by paranoia and prejudice.
    Idiots will be idiots either way, just look at predominantly Republican Birthers of recent infamy and the predominantly Democratic Truthers of a few years ago-a victory by either candidate won't change things in that regard.

    Here are some blog articles detailing why rational Republicans are suspicious of the current polls:

    http://www.redstate.com/2012/10/31/o...ewed-unskewed/

    http://www.bobkrumm.com/blog/index.p...in+garbage+out

    I find these concerns compelling, though not conclusive.

    Also, Nate Silver might not deserve some of the scorn heaped on him, but my opinion of CNN (I used to view them as a conscientous network that strove toward professionalism despite their left-leaning bias) has gone downhill in light of their coverage (or lack thereof) of news stories like the disputed details of the Benghazi fiasco, and Fast and Furious before that.

  2. #82
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    As I recall, three separate committees, one comprised of Democrats, one of DOJ internal auditors, and one comprised of Republicans, found top officials in the Obama Administration weren't "in the know" about Fast and Furious. Granted, the Republican committee did suggest that the Obama Administration's policy tweaks led to the Fast and Furious, but I question whether or not, like the economic collapse at the end of the Bush Administration, it was just an inevitable outcome given the circumstances.

    And this:

    http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics...ight-of-attack


    I think the issue you're taking is that the media is not sensationalizing these things, and that bothers you. They're not treating it like a scandal, and that bothers you. We won't know what happened until after the election, and that bothers you. Perhaps you have a recent memory of them sensationalizing a story about someone you like, and you want negative reciprocity. In my opinion, the media shouldn't be sensationalizing anything, and the proper time must be given to learning the facts before one passes judgment. I suppose I'm just projecting my own inabilities on others, but I have a fairly high tolerance for mistakes when large, complicated endeavors are undertaken, regardless of the political leanings of those involved. I think people too often cry foul and cast harsh judgment without having a respect for the limits of human ability and the complexities of the problems that face us.

    Edit:

    Regarding the articles you posted, I'd read the first already, the second wasn't very illuminating; the excel graph with a linear best fit line (and R-squared value for good measure!) made me chuckle. Quickly glancing at some of the polls he is referencing, I see his argument falling to pieces. I'll give you a single example, since it's late. The ABC poll that shows Romney ahead by 1 point: of those likely voters who were asked how likely it is they are going to vote: 80% of Independents, 83% of Democrats, and 87% of Republicans say they are "Absolutely certain to vote". According to Mr. Krum's linear interpolation, this sampling is biased in favor of the Democrats, by about 3%, given that likely voter turnout should be around 60 something percent. Is he suggesting that somehow the 83% purported by Democrats is a bigger exaggeration than the 87% by the Republicans? The thing about modeling is, you need to have sound theory supporting your models. Random lines of best fit aren't appropriate.

    In the end, we will know come election night. At this point, I would guess that Obama is going to win, but I wouldn't be surprised if Romney won either, especially because there are so many Republican big-shots in Ohio right now; that has to count for something.

    Here's your moment of zen:

    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  3. #83
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    The Republicans are now resorting to election fraud and voter suppression via whatever means they can get away with. In Ohio, Secretary of State Husted set out a series of rulings to limit early voting, punish voters for listening to poll workers, and numerous other regulations that took massive pushback in the courts to partially overturn. Husted just got a win when an appeals court ruled that Ohio could throw out ballots from the “wrong precinct,” even if the right precinct voted in the same polling place and poll workers either mismarked the voter rolls or told the voter to get in the wrong line. Yesterday, an Ohio a data glitch caused the loss of over 30,000 state voter registration updates. Northeast Ohio Voter Advocates found an abnormally high rate of rejected absentee ballot requests in Cuyahoga County, a Democratic stronghold that includes Cleveland. The Cuyahoga Board of Elections determined that 865 ballot requests had been erroneously thrown out. In Florida, early voting time has been cut in half compared to last year, with it taking as much as 5 hour to get through the early voting line. Governor Scott refuses to extend the early voting by one day to make sure that as few as possible early votes are cast, since these are usually heavily weighted to Democratic voters. Misleading voters is a favorite. These examples of Republican voter suppression and election fraud are a preview of the type of government that one expects if Romney and the Republicans are elected.
    I was watching Romney at a rally last night and finally - and indisputably - the smile has been wiped off his face. Romney knows it's over.

    Romney has a decision to make. Either he is the worst presidential candidate in modern history, the man who lost the unloseable election; or he is the guy who learned his lesson and became a better man.

    If Romney has a shred of decency, then in his concession speech he will explicitly call on McConnell and Boehner to drop their campaign of treasonous obstruction and work with the President to take the brakes off the economic recovery.

    Romney talks a lot about working with the other side of the aisle. Well, he won't get that chance. If he has a shred of decency, he will call on the Republicans in Congress to accept the decision of the people.

    Any one person in Congress represents only a tiny piece of America, only the President has the mandate of the nation. In the President's second term, we need to see Republicans accept that their "policies" are not what Americans want.

    If the Republicans continue their blind obstruction, President Obama should mercilessly attack them individually, by name, and call on the whole of America to flood any obstructionist member of Congress with a wave of indignation.

    If they try to make it impossible for the President to govern, the people of America should make it impossible for them to show their faces in public.
    Found these comments elsewhere. I am interested in hearing your opinions about them - especially the first.

  4. #84
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    The two-party monopoly will continue.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  5. #85
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmileyMan View Post
    Found these comments elsewhere. I am interested in hearing your opinions about them - especially the first.
    F*cking Ohio. You know, what's despicable here is that this doesn't necessarily have to be from this year -- I was reading the same stuff in 2000, about both Ohio and Florida. We can debate on how purposeful and extreme such behavior is vs what is just the product of a large, unwieldy, uncoordinated voting apparatus and state monitoring of elections, but it's just the same old thing.

    I think what I want to say about tossing votes is that a lot of these last-minute court arguments and appeals about early voting seem to deprioritize the vote in lieu of the state process. THat's probably my biggest hangup over it. We have a legal system that would rather let a guilty person go free than imprison an innocent, but here we don't seem to have a problem with implementing processes that diminish/disenfranchise the voter to make things easier for the state or county. It doesn't help with US cynicism regarding our right to vote... not only does a vote feel like a very tiny drop in a very large ocean, but who's to say your vote will even be counted or won't be flipped through some black-box process? There has to be more scrutiny, and the voting process should support the voter.

    EDIT: Just read this:

    In Florida, Republicans have historically done better among people who vote by mail, while Democrats have done better among people who vote early in person. For 2012, Florida's Republican-led Legislature reduced the number of in-person early voting days from 14 to eight.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  6. #86
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    I think the issue you're taking is that the media is not sensationalizing these things, and that bothers you.

    Regarding the articles you posted, I'd read the first already, the second wasn't very illuminating; Is he suggesting that somehow the 83% purported by Democrats is a bigger exaggeration than the 87% by the Republicans? The thing about modeling is, you need to have sound theory supporting your models.
    My problem is that the media is not covering the issue as it develops, examining and evaluating (or at least presenting) each new piece of news or evidence as it comes along-despite the fact that doing so is standard operating procedure in their business for any major story (i.e. any story that is salient to the audience, and thus viewership). And yes, I think applying uneven standards concerning what sort of news is 'fit to print' is a major problem, one that a concientous and professional news organization would take great pains to address, either by refraining from 'sensationalizing' all such stories, or giving equivalent stories the same level of coverage.

    Typically, registered Republicans are significantly more likely to vote than registered Democrats, and non-polling evidence would be expected to provide corroboration for any outlier election; as for the rest, I'll post Krum's answer to a similar objection (the reader's objection is presented first):

    Reader: The percentage of likely voters among registered voters in a pollster’s results is not meant to be a projection of the national turnout. In order for it to be so, you’d have to assume that the probability of an individual answering a pollster is independent of their probability to vote, which is definitely false. Pollsters have ways of estimating and correcting for this non-response bias, but the end result is that you should not assume that a survey is projecting 80% turnout just because their likely voter sample is 80% of their registered voter sample.

    Without that key assumption, I don’t think there’s much of an argument left to be had in this article.

    Ed: The problem with your counter-argument is that there is ample historical evidence of a social acceptability bias when respondents are asked whether or not they intend to vote. Corroborating evidence for that is the high likelihood of passing through likely voters screens employed by most polling agencies. The best polling considers not just your answers, but your level of knowledge–ie., can you name the candidates running for office, your age, income levels, education levels, etc. Those are factors that in most years are relatively stable among the voting population. (2008 and 1992 may have been recent exceptions to those rules, but 2012 is likely to revert more to historical norms.)

    As for correcting for non-response rates . . . the right way to do it is to query non-responders and then test the hypothesis that their results differ from the sample population you polled. The cheap way of doing it is to simply weight a non-representative sample, which is the method you implied above. Most open-source polls use the cheap method. Only the campaigns are looking at real polls that factor non-responders, not simply weight to account for them. Garbage in = Garbage out.

  7. #87
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmileyMan View Post
    Found these comments elsewhere. I am interested in hearing your opinions about them - especially the first.
    It sounds like you read a bunch of left-wing rags.

  8. #88
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Charles Cook thinks there's a good chance of a split popular/electoral vote: http://cookpolitical.com/story/5094

  9. #89
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    I don't think the real danger lies in a split between the popular and electoral vote. Our democratic institutions are strong enough, and, while some people might be pissed off about it, and a good number will be annoyed, enough of us know and respect the fact that it's the winner of the electoral college, not the popular vote, who wins the presidency, and enough of the moderate middle will be willing to accept it that I don't see it tearing the country apart or anything (it would lead to a very interesting next four years, tho).

    Where I think the real danger lies is the potential for a recall in certain crucial swing states. In 2000, we were in a position such that that kind of controversy could occur, and we could still relatively peacefully deal with it. In this current environment, though, I dunno. Right now, I really don't want two huge camps forming who are at one another's throats based on recounts from unelected election officials nobody around the country knows anything about. Especially not with the unfortunate racial tinge this election possesses.

  10. #90
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Important questions.

    My own somewhat more serious question: Which state do you think is most likely to have a recount this election cycle? I'm saying Virginia. Romney only leads by 0.3 percent*, 13 votes is a share worth fighting for, and the state has been dealing with a history of voting problems.

    *RealClearPolitics.com
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