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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #51

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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    I'm baffled by how the current, dominant theme in the media is that Obama is an underdog and he only has a few days left to change everything or lose. Most people who are actually doing statistical analysis of the race are giving Obama the greater likelihood of winning. It's not by a big margin mind you, but it's not negligible. They're saying you'd be wiser to place your bet on Obama. So it really doesn't cooperate with this narrative about Obama trying to rescue a burning zeppelin.
    I think that's probably more a function of Obama having had a comfy lead before the first debate. It's a matter of how far he's dipped, not that he's likely to lose.
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  2. #52
    Senior Member UniqueMixture's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    I'm baffled by how the current, dominant theme in the media is that Obama is an underdog and he only has a few days left to change everything or lose. Most people who are actually doing statistical analysis of the race are giving Obama the greater likelihood of winning. It's not by a big margin mind you, but it's not negligible. They're saying you'd be wiser to place your bet on Obama. So it really doesn't cooperate with this narrative about Obama trying to rescue a burning zeppelin.
    If the day's news is boring then sensationalize!

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  3. #53
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Exclamation Why I want to see an Obama victory.

    Presidential policies aside, a part of me really wants to see an Obama victory next week. Not just any victory, but a victory consistent with polling data. The reason is quite simple: a Romney victory that flies in the face of polling data will, to some, be proof of a massive conspiracy by the media and pollsters in favor of a liberal candidate. It isn't that I would be resistant to believing the polling data is wrong, only that I believe the implications aren't tied with fraud or partisanship, but with the difficulty that comes with predicting uncertain events. I'm tired of hearing about people rejecting information because 1) it isn't consistent with what they want to believe; and 2) they've had their ability to think critically clouded by paranoia and prejudice.

    Fox news and the conservative establishment have done an excellent job of painting most media sources as liberal propaganda, and although I'm not going to waste time arguing with them over MSNBC, I find the charges being levied against other outlets such as CNN or Nate Silver's political blog to be entirely baseless. I don't see how, as a society, we benefit from spreading vitriolic propaganda and burying our heads in the sand.
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  4. #54
    Freaking Ratchet Rail Tracer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Fox news and the conservative establishment have done an excellent job of painting most media sources as liberal propaganda, and although I'm not going to waste time arguing with them over MSNBC, I find the charges being levied against other outlets such as CNN or Nate Silver's political blog to be entirely baseless. I don't see how, as a society, we benefit from spreading vitriolic propaganda and burying our heads in the sand.
    lol news organizations are first and foremost for money. Having an ideology is secondary. They play bases because they get $$$. Playing an ideology means a stagnant base that will always watch your show even if you spill vitriol crap 24/7 and fox news is part of that vitriol crap.

    From my perspective the media is far from liberal. This is especially the case when News Corp is one of the biggest news organizations out there.

    Note: I don't watch Fox nor MSNBC.

  5. #55
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    What's really stupid about the pissing match between Scarborough and Silver is that if Obama wins, it doesn't mean that Silver was necessarily wrong ... since his prediction could simply means that they legitimiately flipped two coins and tails came up on both. A Romney victory is still part of Silver's prediction and has a 25% chance of occurrence.

    Political polling guru Nate Silver is so confident in his statistical models that he just offered to bet MSNBC's Joe Scarborough $1,000 that Barack Obama will win re-election. Scarborough, you may recall, criticized Silver's math earlier this week, saying that "Anybody that thinks that this race is anything but a tossup right now is such an ideologue ... they're jokes." He was specifically talking about Silver's FiveThirtyEight website, which shows Mitt Romney with just a 1-in-4 chance of becoming president.

    Silver -- "If you think it's a toss-up, let's bet. If Obama wins, you donate $1,000 to the American Red Cross. If Romney wins, I do. Deal?"
    Then again, the Red Cross gets $1000 either way, so they're the winners.


    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Presidential policies aside, a part of me really wants to see an Obama victory next week. Not just any victory, but a victory consistent with polling data. The reason is quite simple: a Romney victory that flies in the face of polling data will, to some, be proof of a massive conspiracy by the media and pollsters in favor of a liberal candidate. It isn't that I would be resistant to believing the polling data is wrong, only that I believe the implications aren't tied with fraud or partisanship, but with the difficulty that comes with predicting uncertain events. I'm tired of hearing about people rejecting information because 1) it isn't consistent with what they want to believe; and 2) they've had their ability to think critically clouded by paranoia and prejudice.
    So you want Obama to win because the situation is such that a Romney victory will be decried as some form of vote tampering? Or did I misread that? It was a little difficult to parse.

    I have to say, that's the most unique perspective I've heard this election season.... aside from the other post on this forum today by someone who wants Obama to lose because he feels his purpose in life has been supplanted by our current President and needs him out of the way so that he can get on with his hoe-down with destiny.
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  6. #56
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    would`nt it be nice to have a law like canada that would prevent the broadcasting of misinformation and labeling it news?

  7. #57
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    I predict that I'll be drunk on Nov. 6th.

  8. #58
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    So you want Obama to win because the situation is such that a Romney victory will be decried as some form of vote tampering? Or did I misread that? It was a little difficult to parse.

    I have to say, that's the most unique perspective I've heard this election season.... aside from the other post on this forum today by someone who wants Obama to lose because he feels his purpose in life has been supplanted by our current President and needs him out of the way so that he can get on with his hoe-down with destiny.
    I voted for Obama because I agree with his policies more than I do with Romney's. However, I really really want him to win because of the implications of a Romney win; namely, that the polling conducted over the past weeks and months was flawed. In particular, conservatives have been crying foul and accusing the pollsters and media of bias in this election season, suggesting that the polling methodology is inappropriate and motivated by politics. If Romney wins, they will use that as evidence (rightfully or wrongfully so) of their claims. I'm tired of all the slander and accusations, and I think many pollsters and media outlets are trying to be objective, so I'd rather not see this behavior propagated. If the polls do turn out to be wrong, which I am entirely willing to accept, I am of the belief that it will be due to the difficulties inherent in prediction, and not because of any conspiracy or bias.
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  9. #59
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    What's really stupid about the pissing match between Scarborough and Silver is that if Obama wins, it doesn't mean that Silver was necessarily wrong ... since his prediction could simply means that they legitimiately flipped two coins and tails came up on both. A Romney victory is still part of Silver's prediction and has a 25% chance of occurrence.
    I've been reading analysis of the analysis of Nate Silver's analysis, and my analysis is that it tends to be indicative of both how poorly people understand statistics and how hostile people are to statistics on principle.
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  10. #60
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    I tried googling different polls, and some have Romney in the lead while others have Obama. How can anyone be sure which of these polls is accurate? (Or maybe they are all accurate, but their margin of error is too wide?)

    This may seem odd, but in the end I trust the verdict of Intrade more than the polls. Currently the prediction market has Obama to win at a 66.3% chance. So Obama has a 2 in 3 chance while Romney has a 1 in 3 chance.
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