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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #371
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    ....and just the other day I was lambasted for allegedly assuming that illegal immigration policies were the primary factor behind hispanic support for Obama.

    I agree that Obama's illegal immigration policies (as well as the rhetoric espoused by many Republicans on the issue, such as during the Republican debates when Rick Perry was skewered for his moderation on the issue) was a large factor behind Obama's hispanic support.....I recently said as much on the thread regarding the demographic profile of the United States in 2050. I don't think that's the biggest reason hispanics favored Obama, but I do think a hard-line on illegal immigration is what costs the Republicans enough hispanic voters to lose the election despite a 59% edge among 'white' voters.
    what do you think the appeal was than? cause he was black? his skin color?

  2. #372
    Senior Member JivinJeffJones's Avatar
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    Can anyone tell me why Obama won the popular vote but the republicans more or less retained the same number of house seats? Isn't the house broadly considered representative of the popular vote? Does that mean that a lot of people who were voting for Obama must also have been voting republican? Or does it just mean that most of the population is concentrated in the fewer Obama-friendly constituencies?

  3. #373
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JivinJeffJones View Post
    Can anyone tell me why Obama won the popular vote but the republicans more or less retained the same number of house seats? Isn't the house broadly considered representative of the popular vote? Does that mean that a lot of people who were voting for Obama must also have been voting republican? Or does it just mean that most of the population is concentrated in the fewer Obama-friendly constituencies?
    Hah. Laws were passed that prevented the country from adding more seats beyond 435 in 1911. Ever since then there hasn't even been a chance for the seats to be proportional. What happens now is that relative population changes between states result in some states losing districts and others gaining districts, even if that happened in a scenario where every state gained population. When this occurs, the actually districts themselves must be drawn, and whichever party is in control very deliberately draws the districts in such a manner as to minimize the chances of their own party losing seats. This process, called gerrymandering if you haven't heard of it, was done by Republicans in most of the major states in 2010 and that is part of the reason they faired as well as they did in the House.
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  4. #374
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by gasoline View Post
    what do you think the appeal was than? cause he was black? his skin color?
    I'm not Chris Mathews, I don't consider his ethnicity to be the primary factor behind his appeal (though I do think it has an effect on the margins, as voters want to like him before he even begins campaigning, for what he represents); I'm saying he has personal charisma and is a brilliant campaigner, able to personally connect with his supporters (and 'define' his opposition) in a manner that most other politicians can't match....in other words, he's like Clinton or Reagan in that regard. This translates into high-intensity support.

    As for his policies outside of immigration, hispanics at this point in time are simply more attracted to the notion of an activist government than the 'white' population is....his exploitation of hard-line policies on illegal immigration by the Republicans simply juiced up the intensity of support already there (turn-out), as well as pulling in hispanics who generally support Republican principles (the ones who voted for Bush), but became alienated by the Republican's illegal immigration platform, and the rhetoric surrounding it. It was this last factor which ultimately costs the Republicans the election, IMO.

  5. #375
    Senior Member JivinJeffJones's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Hah. Laws were passed that prevented the country from adding more seats beyond 435 in 1911. Ever since then there hasn't even been a chance for the seats to be proportional. What happens now is that relative population changes between states result in some states losing districts and others gaining districts, even if that happened in a scenario where every state gained population. When this occurs, the actually districts themselves must be drawn, and whichever party is in control very deliberately draws the districts in such a manner as to minimize the chances of their own party losing seats. This process, called gerrymandering if you haven't heard of it, was done by Republicans in most of the major states in 2010 and that is part of the reason they faired as well as they did in the House.
    They must've done a damn good job. I guess there's no way around it, but it really seems intentionally undemocratic (small d). Maybe ban polling 3 months prior to a rezoning, and ban rezoning for 3 months after an election. Ha.

  6. #376
    Senior Member LEGERdeMAIN's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    This sounds remarkably like whiny pessimistic speculation to me to assume you won't be able to find work just because Obama got elected, before you even see what types of things are actually implemented and their actual effect is.... more unnecessary drama.

    Your career is your own, and you'll be required to find work no matter who is president. I've lost jobs; I've worked hard and gotten jobs. It's not easy, but you just get a plan in place and work your ass off to make it happen, and don't give up.
    It's incredibly naive to say that one's career is one's own and not giving the far-reaching powers of government credit for the difference they make(whether positive or negative). More regulation = higher costs = fewer employees and/or lower wages. It's simple concept, not sure why people don't understand it yet.
    “Some people will tell you that slow is good – but I’m here to tell you that fast is better. I’ve always believed this, in spite of the trouble it’s caused me. Being shot out of a cannon will always be better than being squeezed out of a tube. That is why God made fast motorcycles, Bubba…”


  7. #377
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by LEGERdeMAIN View Post
    It's incredibly naive to say that one's career is one's own and not giving the far-reaching powers of government credit for the difference they make(whether positive or negative). More regulation = higher costs = fewer employees and/or lower wages. It's simple concept, not sure why people don't understand it yet.
    One of the best things the feds could do to counter this would be to sever the link between employment and health insurance. Why this hasn't already been done, I don't know.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  8. #378
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    Wish I could vote now.

  9. #379
    Insert witty line here... Ponyboy's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JivinJeffJones View Post
    Can anyone tell me why Obama won the popular vote but the republicans more or less retained the same number of house seats? Isn't the house broadly considered representative of the popular vote? Does that mean that a lot of people who were voting for Obama must also have been voting republican? Or does it just mean that most of the population is concentrated in the fewer Obama-friendly constituencies?
    I think a large part of it is that house and senate seats are vied for by more "local" and familiar names (we know someone who knows the candidate?) and familiarity breeds contentment. For instance, I live in a predominately Democratic state yet we always seem to elect Republican Senators (We threw an independent this year just to mess with everyone! ) and Democratic Reps. However, I am in a small state so I'm not sure if that goes for everyone or just here.
    I'm never wrong, I'm just sometimes less right

  10. #380
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by JivinJeffJones View Post
    They must've done a damn good job.
    They did, but not as good as you might think; the Democratic vote does tend to congregate into densely populated and highly concentrated pockets, which gives Republicans an inherent advantage with the House vote. Furthermore, there are areas where the people tend to favor Democrats in Presidential races and Republicans in House races, such as in Michigan and Pennsylvania (though the Republicans of the latter state also did an exceptionally effective job of gerrymandering-most constituents in those districts did not seem to mind, though the white Democrats were pissed). Finally, legally binding interpretations of the Voting Rights Act, combined with coinciding interests of minority Democrats and white Republicans, leads to the creation of 'majority-minority' districts (with Democratic support ranging from 60% to as high as around 95%, usually around 70-80% ) wherever possible.

    The forum at the following site is a good place to go to for a quick and dirty education on the finer details of the American electoral system, including redistricting: http://uselectionatlas.org/

    They even have links to free apps that allow you to create your own districts, if you're curious about how much better the Democrats could have done under different redistricting scenarios (though it'll probably be awhile before its updated to include 2012 info.

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