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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #331
    Senior Member EvidenceOfRedemption's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by William K View Post
    The push-back against Silver's success has already started. I've read articles saying anyone could have done what he did by averaging the polls or that he's only correct because the polls were correct Of course, he himself would agree that what he did wasn't magical to many statistically-inclined people, but what I find funny is that the people who criticized him for his predictions earlier, i.e the ones who put him on centre-stage, are the same ones who are poo-pooing his well-deserved fame.

    I think one lesson to be learned in this election is the mis-understanding and misreporting of margin of error. The assumption by most media is that the race is a toss-up because the polls show a lead within the margin of error. That might be true if you have one poll showing an Obama lead within the margin or 10 polls showing 5 leads each for Obama and Romney. But if you have 10 polls and 9 are showing Obama leading by 1 point and the other poll is Rassmussen, well I think you're screwed...

    Edit : Read the article linked and I was expecting his office to be in his mom's basement
    Nate Silverman's technique (though, to be honest, I have only heard of him in the past week) seems similar to how I knew with certainty Obama would win 9 months ago in the sense that clinging to the polls and ignoring the obvious trend too much was a bad idea. Except, instead of a state-by-state assessment based on polls, it was by estimating the collective index of support for Obama at a national level, combined with the fact that he's already had 1 term in office. It was an easy call to know the public would re-elect him over any incumbent no matter how good of an alternative they seemed. I think pollsters were just thinking too hard this election.

    1 month before the election that hadn't changed, so I knew he would win by a large margin... the 2nd/3rd debate and hurricane Sandy was just icing on the cake, although Republican spin will say otherwise... that doesn't account for a 100 point electoral difference.

    Anyone notice that Fox news already has a different headline?

  2. #332
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EvidenceOfRedemption View Post
    hurricane Sandy was just icing on the cake, although Republican spin will say otherwise... that doesn't account for a 100 point electoral difference.
    You think Republicans are the only ones crediting Hurricane Sandy with boosting Obama's re-election prospects?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBHfhkFtio8

  3. #333
    Senior Member EvidenceOfRedemption's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    You think Republicans are the only ones crediting Hurricane Sandy with boosting Obama's re-election prospects?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wBHfhkFtio8
    Like I said, icing on the cake. Republican spin might try to suggest, though, that it was critical to Obama's win.

  4. #334
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    Quote Originally Posted by EvidenceOfRedemption View Post
    Nate Silverman's technique (though, to be honest, I have only heard of him in the past week) seems similar to how I knew with certainty Obama would win 9 months ago in the sense that clinging to the polls and ignoring the obvious trend too much was a bad idea. Except, instead of a state-by-state assessment based on polls, it was by estimating the collective index of support for Obama at a national level, combined with the fact that he's already had 1 term in office. It was an easy call to know the public would re-elect him over any incumbent no matter how good of an alternative they seemed. I think pollsters were just thinking too hard this election.
    There was another site that I saw last night that had a similar projection to Nate's... but it was done back last Feb-May 2012. Again, all the states were correctly picked, aside from Florida which is still being scrutinized.

    I disagree with your last bit above, though. I think if the Republicans had been able to run a stronger candidate, it might have tipped over in the other direction. People wanted someone to blame for their unhappiness, Obama had failed them, and yet Romney just wasn't compelling and has his own issues. But it would have had to be a candidate that has cross-party appeal. I don't think the black vote would have changed much, but even just doing better with the Hispanic vote might have made a difference.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  5. #335
    Senior Member EvidenceOfRedemption's Avatar
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    Some people thought Obama failed them but these people have shallow views of the mechanics of economic stimulus and I didn't expect they would make up most of his target voters anyways. In the end I think Obama remained right about where he started, politically... taking most democrats whole-heatedly and gaining moderate support by being a competent leader. He didn't really lose many of his original target and didn't fail "enough" to for moderates or even republicans who saw his quality as a president past political lines to want to replace him, which leaves hard republicans and the grass-is-greener folk which thankfully don't make up a majority of the country.

    So in this sense, I don't think Obama's performance could really be out-shined in the public eye, he would have had to fail in a more concrete manner then a solid alternative would have had to been available. I know the vote seemed close but in the end 3-to-2 EVs shows he really had a strong grip on re-election the whole time.

    One thing I am surprised at, though, is how close Romney got. I suppose I overestimated the intelligence of the average voter (again). He had one of those campaigns that effectively drew people in, though. When you step back and look at things objectively, I shudder to think of what kind of president he would make. And really, Obama has 4 years of stellar performance if you look past things he had no hand in causing... why would we trade such a driven and competent leader for a mere, well... politician?

    And really, I think that is why I think Obama ended up winning, because people know this on some level. So hey maybe the American public isn't that ignorant after all.


    edit: another thing about the hurricane spin. Obama has always been hard nosed about what needed to be done to get effective results... we just saw the true value and resolve which is the mark of historically great presidents i.e. "Cut the red tape" and that is something we take for granted when the most interesting issue is topics as dry as the economy. Every new president is, on some level, a roll of the dice... the best presidents are the ones who are like that kid who stands up to the playground bully (BUREAUCRATS) and defend the usual victim (the public who are suffering when they don't do their job) and president Obama has that quality in spades. Seems like we forget that the president represents 1/3 of the balance in our government and the only branch held by a single person which is vital to being effective against bureaucratic non-sense. How often, though, do we see the president doing that (really, his job according to the original design of the 3 branch system? hence... veto power?) Not in my life time... until last week. Why trade that kind of president for a someone who has more [political] grease than a Jersey boy hairdoo?

    If you want to know what a politically motivated response to hurricane Sandy looks like, Romney is pitch-perfect: "this is a difficult time/canned empty consolation" making it obvious that Mitt Romney is not president material, he is just another polished politician who is all talk, no action, and that's because he doesn't have the grout or experience of will to do anything substantial. It's tragic every time America unwittingly votes someone like this into office, and sadly we see this as the norm. Maybe that's why people had such an attachment to him which I find confusing... they're the kind of people who prefer unhealthy and dysfunctional yet comfortable normalcy to the original intention of things because that would take (gasp) change. Well, Romney would have been pretty normal.

  6. #336
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I think there were plenty of appeals to racism, and other forms of prejudice, from both sides....one of the reasons this has been such a racially and ethniclly polarized election. That said, the Republicans do need to learn to balance legitimate concerns about illegal immigration with equally legitimate concerns about the demonization effects of some of the rhetoric associated with it.

    gop defined themselves as racist by running toooooo far to the right and sticking with traditional courting of the white vote and focusing on just that, democrats picked up the support on demograph that the policies of the gop would have alienated plus picking up a good portion of the white votes (revenge of the working class-n- moderate republicans).

  7. #337
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    Lol... all these billionaire drama queens.... remember this guy?

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/1...n_2092582.html

    No, they're not losing their jobs after all. Or at least he worded himself very poorly before the election.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  8. #338
    Uniqueorn William K's Avatar
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    While I think Obama would have won the EC regardless of Sandy, I do think that the storm helped with Florida. The polls were still showing a small Romney lead up until Election day but Obama was closing fast in the last week. Florida is of course familiar with hurricanes and getting reminded of how agencies like FEMA helps (if run correctly) was free advertising for the president.
    Also Christie saying that Obama did a good job, with their own former popular(?) governor Crist appearing at the Democrats' convention, could have tipped the scale (sorry couldn't resist) over to the blue side. Who knows?
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  9. #339
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EvidenceOfRedemption View Post
    If you want to know what a politically motivated response to hurricane Sandy looks like, Romney is pitch-perfect: "this is a difficult time/canned empty consolation" making it obvious that Mitt Romney is not president material, he is just another polished politician who is all talk, no action, and that's because he doesn't have the grout or experience of will to do anything substantial. It's tragic every time America unwittingly votes someone like this into office, and sadly we see this as the norm. Maybe that's why people had such an attachment to him which I find confusing... they're the kind of people who prefer unhealthy and dysfunctional yet comfortable normalcy to the original intention of things because that would take (gasp) change. Well, Romney would have been pretty normal.
    Well, with the evangelical vote, while not liking that Romney is a Mormon, he's still preaching fiscal conservation (which many of the middle and lower class evangelicals seem to have a bent for); and Obama openly supported gay marriage. That's a huge deal. Even the black community was having to do a LOT of damage control on that, since many blacks are also religious and in the more conservative sense. I can't begin to tell you how many arguments I heard on local black radio trying to spin that back around and sell Obama to them as their best best "regardless of his stance on gay marriage." I even heard an ad over the weekend literally saying that you can vote against same-sex marriage here in Maryland and still vote for Obama because you don't need to agree with every stance your leader makes on every issue in order to still see him as the best leader for you.

    Not being pro-life and not being anti-gay-marriage is pretty much the kiss of doom in evangelical circles. I still heard reservations being expressed by them about Romney, but he was still the lesser of two evils. And I'm seeing lots of comments now on FaceBook about them bemoaning their fates because "America is destroyed"... just because Obama got elected. I actually worry about their sanity; they make it sound as if they have just been interred in concentration camps and forced to participate in illicit sex acts, it's so extreme. The don't really know what "bad" is, honestly. Victoria Jackson (SNL alum) had a hissy fit online about how this country sucks and is ruined now, the evangelicals suck because they didn't turn out as much as they should have to defeat this scourge, etc.

    Anyway, my point is that block really wanted to see Obama gone and see it as a moral failing for our country that he was not removed from office and perceive our nation as corrupt to the point of damnation because they were outvoted. It helped that the non-affiliated religious actually comprised a powerful voting block this time around and made up 20-25% of Obama's support. We are seeing the unchurched believers not beholden to particular denominations now expressing themselves.

    The religious vote clung to Romney as their "savior figurehead" not really because Romney was so amazing to them -- I doubt a month from now they'd go to a conference to hear him speak -- but because he was racing the devil.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  10. #340
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Well, with the evangelical vote, while not liking that Romney is a Mormon, he's still preaching fiscal conservation (which many of the middle and lower class evangelicals seem to have a bent for); and Obama openly supported gay marriage. That's a huge deal. Even the black community was having to do a LOT of damage control on that, since many blacks are also religious and in the more conservative sense. I can't begin to tell you how many arguments I heard on local black radio trying to spin that back around and sell Obama to them as their best best "regardless of his stance on gay marriage." I even heard an ad over the weekend literally saying that you can vote against same-sex marriage here in Maryland and still vote for Obama because you don't need to agree with every stance your leader makes on every issue in order to still see him as the best leader for you.
    Gay marriage... is ALL you think about.

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