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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #11
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by ygolo View Post
    I am wondering if you can account for election tampering in these predictions. I remember some weirdness in the 2000 election
    *actually this was the first time I experienced poll-workers trying to systematically deny voters based on ethnicity, and this year the state I experience this in is a swing state. (it wasn't then)
    There was a HELL of a lot of potential tampering in the Bush elections -- enough variance from consistency that in a different country it simply would have been assume the vote had been tampered with.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Often times the first presidential debate is a good chance for a challenger to prove himself to the voting population. Obama's approval and favorability ratings did not decline after the first debate, but Romney's shot up. Something to think about.
    Are you serious?

    Romney only got the republican nom because he was milquetoast enough to not offend anyone, but no one actually seemed to be FOR him -- even Rick Santorum was leading at one point for goodness sake. Even his own party seemed to ignore him.

    Something was off, either or after.

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Can someone start another poll about whether we go to civil war after #3 happens?
    I'm buying lots of water and shotgun shells and heading for the hills! Who is with me?
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  2. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Are you serious?

    Romney only got the republican nom because he was milquetoast enough to not offend anyone, but no one actually seemed to be FOR him -- even Rick Santorum was leading at one point for goodness sake. Even his own party seemed to ignore him.

    Something was off, either or after.
    I think Jonnyboy's got the much better read on this.

    As Krauthammer put it: with the first debate, Romney dispelled $100MM in negative advertising.

    The first debate was Romney's shot to show that the liberal media's/administration's narrative about him is false.

    As such, once people saw him with their own eyes, directly against Obama, they said, "Oh, he's not that bad", and their opinions shifted.

  3. #13
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    I think Jonnyboy's got the much better read on this.

    As Krauthammer put it: with the first debate, Romney dispelled $100MM in negative advertising.
    I think he placed poorly in Debates #2 and #3 -- to the point of being flustered and ignorant in debate #3.

    Are you suggesting that conservative voters are THAT pathetic? That they would just go by the first round to judge whether or not their candidate can throw a punch, even if he fails in the next two rounds?

    I'm trying to give them the benefit of a doubt, but you would seem to suggest I shouldn't. Maybe you're right.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I think he placed poorly in Debates #2 and #3 -- to the point of being flustered and ignorant in debate #3.

    Are you suggesting that conservative voters are THAT pathetic? That they would just go by the first round to judge whether or not their candidate can throw a punch, even if he fails in the next two rounds?

    I'm trying to give them the benefit of a doubt, but you would seem to suggest I shouldn't. Maybe you're right.
    Debate #1 was more widely watched, and focused on domestic/economic issues. In a way, that was the most weighted.

    Accept the past. Live for the present. Look forward to the future.
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  5. #15
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I think he placed poorly in Debates #2 and #3 -- to the point of being flustered and ignorant in debate #3.

    Are you suggesting that conservative voters are THAT pathetic? That they would just go by the first round to judge whether or not their candidate can throw a punch, even if he fails in the next two rounds?

    I'm trying to give them the benefit of a doubt, but you would seem to suggest I shouldn't. Maybe you're right.
    No, and, once again, I think you have an awful read on this.

  6. #16
    Honor Thy Inferior Such Irony's Avatar
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    I'm predicting it will be very close with Obama barely taking the electoral votes and Romney barely taking the popular vote.
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  7. #17
    Freaking Ratchet Rail Tracer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    I'm buying lots of water and shotgun shells and heading for the hills! Who is with me?
    Well, you are lucky because you're a lady. Whichever way it goes, and if something do happen, most of us will either be conscripted, or run for our dear lives.

  8. #18
    Senior Member ptgatsby's Avatar
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    Approximately:

    65% chance the election goes Democratic, 34.9x chance it goes Republic.

    Probability states that popular vote will be approximately 52% to 48% popular (based on the coincidentally matching odds and a SD of about 2%.)

  9. #19
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rail Tracer View Post
    Well, you are lucky because you're a lady. Whichever way it goes, and if something do happen, most of us will either be conscripted, or run for our dear lives.
    Yes. Because women are always the safest whenever a full-scale social revolt is on hand and people are looting in the streets and there are roving packs of teenage males running around.

    Even the TV show Revolutions figured this out.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  10. #20
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Are you suggesting that conservative voters are THAT pathetic? That they would just go by the first round to judge whether or not their candidate can throw a punch, even if he fails in the next two rounds?
    Conservative voters were already voting for Romney (i.e. anybody but Obama); its the swing voters, unhappy with Obama but unsure about Romney, who changed their mind after the first debate.

    Also, while Obama was credited with an overall edge in the next two debates, they were fairly close overall, and Romney even came out ahead (by wide margins) on the economy, according to instant polls.

    As for predictions, I have none; the race is simply too close to predict at this point, particularly in light of highly divergent polls. It all comes down to the partisan breakdown of voters, either nationally or state-by-state; if Democrats fail to match the atypical 2008 results, then Romney's lead among Independents and white voters will carry the day. If the hopes of Democratic strategists are correct and there are substantially more minority voters this year than in 2008, then Obama wins.

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