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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #101
    FigerPuppet
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    Well, I've been going over the results of recent Ohio polls, and the one's which contain what I consider to be reasonable partisan splits give Obama a slight lead; taking that into consideration, and considering that my suspicions about the other polls could be wrong, I now predict an Obama victory in Ohio (and therefore the EC) with about a 64.9% level of confidence. I still think I have a rational basis in hoping that I'm wrong, but I'm not optimistic.

    I also predict a slight Romney edge with the popular vote.

    Edit: A recent poll by a Susquehanna (a Pennsylvania company with a pretty good recent track record for Pennsylvania-specific polls) shows a tie in Pennsylvania; if the effects of Hurricane Sandy depress turn-out in Philadelphia, then Romney has a better-than-expected chance of a surprise victory....but I consider that eventuality less likely than a victory in Ohio.
    Woah. A 64.9% level of confidence? Are you sure it's not 64.85%? Be careful with your rounding.

  2. #102
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmileyMan View Post
    Woah. A 64.9% level of confidence? Are you sure it's not 64.85%? Be careful with your rounding.
    Either one you want, they both mean essentially the same thing for my purposes. But yeah, just in case it somehow wasn't obvious, its an arbitrary number.

  3. #103
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    http://news.yahoo.com/obamas-approva...-politics.html

    Things keep shifting. As I thought, Sandy will likely influence the election especially with it happening so close to the election itself.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  4. #104
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    http://news.yahoo.com/obamas-approva...-politics.html

    Things keep shifting. As I thought, Sandy will likely influence the election especially with it happening so close to the election itself.
    I think the strangest plausible possibility might be a Romney win in Pennsylvania (due in part to depressed turnout in Philadelphia and Scranton), while losing every other swing state except Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (due in part to Obama's image boost).

    I can tell you now that would probably constitute the worst possible election night for me....sudden wild hope at the beginning, followed by crushing despair.

  5. #105
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I think the strangest plausible possibility might be a Romney win in Pennsylvania (due in part to depressed turnout in Philadelphia and Scranton), while losing every other swing state except Virginia, North Carolina, and Florida (due in part to Obama's image boost).

    I can tell you now that would probably constitute the worst possible election night for me....sudden wild hope at the beginning, followed by crushing despair.
    Yeah, had to check on that possibility earlier today...

    270-268 Obama...

    That would be a tough pill to swallow...

  6. #106
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Yeah, had to check on that possibility earlier today...

    270-268 Obama...

    That would be a tough pill to swallow...
    Well, you could always, uh, make it a suppository.
    [SIGPIC][/SIGPIC]

  7. #107
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    That is probably how it would have to be administered...

    ***

    Anyway, I'm gunna make this my last political post for the day, and then go on with other business.

    The way I've been looking at this race for the last several months is basically like this:

    Mitt Romney has three realistic routes to the Presidency.

    In order to get to any of them, he must win North Carolina, Florida, and Virginia.

    I think he's got the first two almost on lockdown; Virginia is questionable, but could definitely go his way.

    If he gets those three, he's got 248 electoral votes, meaning he needs 21 more to win the election (he wins if it's a tie).

    The three most likely routes, up until recently, have been:

    1. Ohio + any other swing state
    2. Wisconsin + Colorado + any other swing state (realistically: Nevada, Iowa, or New Hampshire) or Wisconsin + Nevada + Iowa
    3. The larger three of the "minor four" swing states (Nevada, Colorado, Iowa [excl. NH]) <-- this leads to a 269-269 tie, and Romney win

    That framework is still mostly useful, but #2 seems to have become less likely, as Wisconsin, after moving towards Romney several weeks ago (it got within 2-3% [still in favor of Obama]), seems to have started moving back to Obama over the last week or so (it's back to ~4%).

    At the same time, Michigan and Pennsylvania have started moving a bit towards Romney, but are in pretty much the same territory as Wisconsin, at ~4% in favor of Obama.

    Still, for sake of being thorough, we should probably consider the possibility that he might win on of them (a la lowtech's scenario):

    4. Michigan + any other swing state, except New Hampshire (most likely: Nevada, Colorado, or Iowa)
    5. Pennsylvania + any other swing state (most likely one of the "four minors")

    Those are really, imo, the only 5 paths to the presidency for Romney, barring the possibility he actually wins them all and by a landslide.

    The scenarios I would most like to see play out are #1 or #3, and #3 would be particularly awesome, as it would literally be a 269-269 tie.

    ***

    The swing states, by current RCP average:

    North Carolina - Romney +3.8%
    Florida - Romney +1.4%
    Virginia - Romney +0.3%

    Colorado - Obama +0.6% (was previously Romney's for several weeks, but recently went back to Obama)

    New Hampshire - Obama +1.5%

    Nevada - Obama +2.8%
    Ohio - Obama +2.8%
    Iowa - Obama +3.0%

    Michigan - Obama +3.8%
    Pennsylvania - Obama +3.8%
    Wisconsin - Obama +4.2%

    ***

    As you can see from the above, Romney would basically need about a 3% swing in his direction at the voting booth in order to win.

    I've seen claims that, supposedly, these kinds of swings have historically happened, and they tend to favor the challenger.

    At this point, such a swing is Romney's only chance: if it doesn't happen, he loses; if it does happen, he wins.

    The really crazy thing is that, if it does happen, he could easily win by pretty large margin: 291-247

  8. #108
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    Ok, I lied.

    Here's the current electoral map, based on the RCP averages.

    To be honest, it seems pretty damn realistic and likely if you ask me...


  9. #109
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Well, you could always, uh, make it a suppository.
    Oh crap, that's a crackup!

    Like that pill gun from Megamind.... "Steady....STEADY... NOW!!!!" *BANG*
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  10. #110
    Senior Member ThatsWhatHeSaid's Avatar
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    My prediction: Romney wins by cheating. Dems challenge it, but lose.
    Last edited by ThatsWhatHeSaid; 11-04-2012 at 10:04 PM. Reason: sp

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