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View Poll Results: How will the popular vote and electoral college be split?

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  • Obama wins both.

    17 54.84%
  • Romney wins both.

    2 6.45%
  • Obama wins the electoral college and Romney wins the popular vote.

    11 35.48%
  • Romney wins the electoral college and Obama wins the popular vote.

    1 3.23%
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  1. #91
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Important questions.

    My own somewhat more serious question: Which state do you think is most likely to have a recount this election cycle? I'm saying Virginia. Romney only leads by 0.3 percent*, 13 votes is a share worth fighting for, and the state has been dealing with a history of voting problems.

    *RealClearPolitics.com
    Not sure, but if a recount would happen in Ohio, it would be a PitA since the recount can't even start until November 17, due to the way they handle provisional vs absentee ballots and the time given for the mail to properly deliver any votes submitted before election day.

    http://www.outsidethebeltway.com/the...-november-6th/
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  2. #92
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    If it happens, I don't see it happening in one state. I see it happening in several.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a trifecta of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.

    It could really happen in any of the swing states, tho.

  3. #93
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    If it happens, I don't see it happening in one state. I see it happening in several.

    I wouldn't be surprised to see a trifecta of Virginia, Ohio, and Colorado.

    It could really happen in any of the swing states, tho.
    I just hope that the swing states have establsihed procedures for recounting ballots that don't violate the Equal Protection Clause. We don't need another Florida debacle.
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  4. #94
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nate Silver
    My argument, rather, is this: we’ve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.

    Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.

    Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is “too close to call.” It isn’t. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you can’t acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.

    But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.
    Indeed.
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  5. #95
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    Indeed.
    The one thing I would add is that the polls being biased is by no means inconsistent with the belief that the race is too close to call.

    In that piece, he treats them too much like they're two separate positions.

    They're not.

  6. #96
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Important questions.

    My own somewhat more serious question: Which state do you think is most likely to have a recount this election cycle? I'm saying Virginia. Romney only leads by 0.3 percent*, 13 votes is a share worth fighting for, and the state has been dealing with a history of voting problems.

    *RealClearPolitics.com
    If it happens in Virginia, it will be really ugly because the Republican party has already been caught tossing out voter registrations.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/politi...a24_story.html

    How many people are going to find out they're not actually registered to vote on Tuesday? And how can an election be legitimate when this has happened?
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  7. #97
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Interesting tree flow of the eight probable battleground states and what their loss or win does to the chances of the remaining candidate ... and it's all just based on the Electoral College. Which is probably one reason that Silver's projections are coming out as they do. Romney just doesn't have the quantity of routes to victory that Obama does by the EC basis, although if he does take Florida that helps his changes immensely, and if he'd take Florida and Ohio then he'd be in better position than Obama.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  8. #98
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Interesting tree flow of the eight probable battleground states and what their loss or win does to the chances of the remaining candidate ... and it's all just based on the Electoral College. Which is probably one reason that Silver's projections are coming out as they do. Romney just doesn't have the quantity of routes to victory that Obama does by the EC basis, although if he does take Florida that helps his changes immensely, and if he'd take Florida and Ohio then he'd be in better position than Obama.

    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...ite-house.html
    That's thing. Even if you cut out all the "special sauce" stuff about lead sizes, historical voting patterns, etc, Romney has fewer options out of what are considered swing states.

    My own take is that I don't really know why Wisconsin and Pennsylvania are being called toss-ups everywhere. Taking numbers from RCP (who call these states toss-ups) Obama leads in Wisconsin by 5.4% and Pennsylvania by 4.6%, and there's never been a point when Obama was in real danger of losing the states to Romney. With this few days until the election, I just don't see those as toss-ups. That would put Romney in a very rough position. If we want to get a little more confident, we could say that North Carolina is not a toss-up, in spite of being only a lead of 3.8% and having once been on Obama's side, but if we do that, we'd probably have to hand Michigan to Obama, and if we assume that Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan go to Obama, then Romney has no chance (well, 270 to win actually gives him an 8% chance).

    Obama is not in a similar position. He could take just one of those big four states, even Virginia which is the least valuable one, and still win.
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  9. #99
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Default The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll: Cutting Through the Fog



    The Des Moines Register came out with a poll today suggesting that the President is leading Governor Romney by 47% to 42% in The Hawkeye State. However, they didn't provide a breakdown by party affiliation. They did give us something to work with:

    Obama has a more limited chance of attracting crossover voters like he did four years ago: 6 percent of Republicans are with Obama, and 3 percent of Democrats are voting for Romney. Independents tilt to Romney, 41 percent to 37 percent.
    So, let I be the percentage of Independents sampled, let R be the percentage of Republicans sampled, and let D be the percentage of Democrats sampled. Assume for the sake of simplicity that I + R + D = 100%. Further assume that the percentage of Republicans who didn't say they were voting for Obama or Romney equals the percentage of Democrats who didn't say they were voting for Obama or Romney (undecideds, 3rd party candidate votes, refused to answer, etc); let U be this percentage.

    From this we can craft a system of equations to back out the sampling breakdown by party affiliation:

    Obama Vote Breakdown:

    47% = (100% - 3% - U) * D + 6% * R + 37% * I

    Romney Vote Breakdown:

    42% = (100% - 6% - U) * R + 3% * D + 41% * I

    Total Undecided and Others Breakdown

    11% = (R + D) * U + 22% * I

    And our Assumption:

    I + D + R = 100%


    Now, since these are a non-linear system of equations, I won't muddle this post up with the algebra of solving them. Further, since one of the equations is actually a composite of the other two, we cannot find a single solution to the system, despite the appearance of having 4 equations and 4 unknowns (U, I, D, R). However, the graph you see above is a plotting of the set of solutions for U ∈ (0, 11).

    To give you an example of how the graph works, look at the point where the percentage of Independents equals the percentage of Democrats sampled (yellow and blue intersection). At this point, approximately 5% of Republicans would have not given support to either Obama or Romney, and approximately 5% of Democrats would have not given support to either Obama or Romney. Thus, Obama's share of the Democratic vote would have been 100% - 3% - 5% = 92%, and Romney's share of the Republican vote would have been 100% - 6% - 5% = 89%.

    I would like to caution everyone that this chart only holds if our two main assumptions are met. Namely, that all respondents are lumped into one of three categories: Independents, Republicans, or Democrats; and that the percentage of undecided (and other) Republicans matches that of Democrats. You've been warned.
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  10. #100
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Well, I've been going over the results of recent Ohio polls, and the one's which contain what I consider to be reasonable partisan splits give Obama a slight lead; taking that into consideration, and considering that my suspicions about the other polls could be wrong, I now predict an Obama victory in Ohio (and therefore the EC) with about a 64.9% level of confidence. I still think I have a rational basis in hoping that I'm wrong, but I'm not optimistic.

    I also predict a slight Romney edge with the popular vote.

    Edit: A recent poll by a Susquehanna (a Pennsylvania company with a pretty good recent track record for Pennsylvania-specific polls) shows a tie in Pennsylvania; if the effects of Hurricane Sandy depress turn-out in Philadelphia, then Romney has a better-than-expected chance of a surprise victory....but I consider that eventuality less likely than a victory in Ohio.

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