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View Poll Results: Did Obamacare Slow the Recovery?

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  • Yes

    4 26.67%
  • It's likely (>50% chance)

    2 13.33%
  • It's unlikely (<50% chance)

    2 13.33%
  • No

    7 46.67%
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Results 71 to 78 of 78

  1. #71
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    I separated the totals from the sectors for better comprehension. To give you a sense of scale (I wish I had the time to custom add the labels to the excel graphs, but it would be tedious given the method I employed to have the vertical stacking), the distance between horizontal lines on the top graph is 1000k, and the distance between horizontal lines on the bottom graph is 300k. Each horizontal line represents the 0 line for the key to the right, and the 1000k or 300k line (depending upon which graph) for the key to the right and down one. Does that make sense?

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  2. #72
    Senior Member Little_Sticks's Avatar
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    Sorta Related:
    I personally believe that regardless of whether or not Obama had the theoretical intention of saving money, because it's centralized by the government, they will over time and with piss-poor management ruin that idea and make it more costly (if it wasn't at implementation), and instead use it as a form of control over the populace.

    I mean, isn't that the real issue. The control that this brings? It's like a step backward in history; and one that's not only against the idea of a thriving economy, but historically stunted many economies with high tax rates. I just don't know what the fuck is going on anymore. Politics is depressing. People say they hate Romney because "he's a scumbag" and shit like that and Obama "is a great guy"; I mean is that really how people decide on who to vote for? Superficial impressions, ideals, and what they promise, even if it sounds like a fairytale?

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  3. #73
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    I separated the totals from the sectors for better comprehension. To give you a sense of scale (I wish I had the time to custom add the labels to the excel graphs, but it would be tedious given the method I employed to have the vertical stacking), the distance between horizontal lines on the top graph is 1000k, and the distance between horizontal lines on the bottom graph is 300k. Each horizontal line represents the 0 line for the key to the right, and the 1000k or 300k line (depending upon which graph) for the key to the right and down one. Does that make sense?
    Yeah, I think I got it.

    They look great. Thanks.

    If you wouldn't mind: could you blow up the second line from the (conglomerated) top (total private)?

    That's where you'd expect to see the argument I've made, and, well, frankly put, it could certainly be argued that there's evidence of it there...

  4. #74
    Anew Leaf
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    This is an interesting thread for me since I run a small business.

    We aren't anywhere near having 50 employees, but if we were near that threshold (or if they lower it), I know that I would not dare cross that line. It would be another thing to eat away at my ability to expand and run things.

    I want to take care of people, and it's a glorious sugar filled dream to do so, but I also need to stay in business.

  5. #75
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    I wrote a macro to generate these automatically. The hard part was referencing the URLs. Don't ask for anything else, lol.

    Put in a SPOILER to keep your thread from being filled with charts.

  6. #76
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jonnyboy View Post
    I wrote a macro to generate these automatically. The hard part was referencing the URLs. Don't ask for anything else, lol.
    Haha, thanks man, those are awesome.

    So, I went ghetto steez, and just popped your chart into paint and drew by mousepad an approximate (by eye) fitted-line for the data of what happened, and then drew a fitted line for a hypothetical scenario under which the argument in the OP is true, and Obamacare did indeed slow the pace of hiring, by increasing the marginal cost of hiring an employee (btw, for those who don't know, this is pretty much economic orthodoxy; according to modern economic theory, this is what would happen from passing Obamacare; the only real question would be how large an effect it had, not whether or not it happened).

    Now, fair warning, this second fitted line is pulled out of thin air, essentially -- it's not based on real data, cuz, well, we only get the data based on the one state of the world in which Obamacare did pass; if we were able to access multiple parallel universes, we could compare the different data sets based on different legislative decisions, but, unfortunately, we don't have that luxury; as such, I'm just throwing this out there so we can see one hypothetical comparison, and what it would look like, if the argument made in the OP was true, and the extent of the effect were as shown:



    I won't ask you to do anything about it, Jonnyboy, but seeing how the recoveries from previous recessions have looked, with the amount of jobs recovered during the recovery, compared to the amount of jobs lost during the recession, would be informative. We still wouldn't be able to tell, because we don't get to access those parallel universes, whether this recovery would have been this slow anyway, regardless of whether Obamacare was passed, but we would get to see whether this recovery is unusually jobless, for whatever reason it might be.

  7. #77
    null Jonny's Avatar
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    Cool stuff. FYI, I also downloaded data as far back as 1939, and threw some variable input modifiers into my macro, so now we can select custom date ranges and generate the whole set of graphs for those as well. So, if you're interested in looking at past recessions, etc, you may. Just let me know the date ranges you're interested in (preferably no longer than 10 year increments, e.g. jan 1970 - jan 1980).
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  8. #78
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    Cool. I'm sure you will, and I will so as well, be thinking about various ways of slicing this data. I'm gunna post the chart below again, with the (approximate) hypothetical scenario laid out above in it as well (I'll have to go non-ghetto-steez at some point, and actually plug hypothetical data into excel, and create the graphs that way, but, for the moment, I'm just gunna go ghetto stylin with paint).



    The assumption I made was that about 3.5 million more jobs have been added during the recovery, since March 2010 (which is roughly equivalent to the hypothetical example in the chart in post #76 [also, for sake of understanding the above: each 1% in the chart accounts for ~1.5 million jobs]). That's a period of 30 months, so the assumption is that just under 120K jobs / mo, on average, would have been added over that period, had Obamacare not passed. And, once again, for those who are reading, this chart is not based on real data, but on a hypothetical alternate universe scenario in which Obamacare did not pass, and did not have the aforementioned negative effect on hiring, based on the argument laid out in the OP.
    Last edited by Zarathustra; 09-25-2012 at 03:28 PM.

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