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Thread: The black swan

  1. #1
    resonance entropie's Avatar
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    Default The black swan

    Another way to play a possible Eurozone breakup is to consider what might happen to the new national currencies that would replace the euro.


    What I also found is that as much talk as there is about Greece or other PIIGS leaving the Eurozone and thereby catalyzing the complete breakup of the euro, one other option being discussed is that Germany itself might choose to leave the Eurozone.
    A German departure might actually be good for the Eurozone, as the remainder of the euro would drop in value while the new German D-Mark would soar against the old euro, thereby producing the competitive re-balancing the continent desperately needs. According to a recent article in the New York Times, there has already been huge amounts of capital being transferred out of banks in crisis countries like Spain into German banks, which demonstrates that Europeans are clearly thinking along the same lines. Given the Germans' well deserved reputation for conservative fiscal prudence, I believe that the new German D-Mark might even rise quite a bit against the dollar itself.
    Source:The black Swan
    [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEBvftJUwDw&t=0s[/URL]

  2. #2

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    Whether the Euro is history or not I want to see the damn power the money changers and speculators have brought to an end. Seriously. Its really adding to existing democratic deficits no end. There's no political sovereignty so long as these assholes can game any political decision to make fortunes and extort money out of taxpayers.

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    resonance entropie's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    Whether the Euro is history or not I want to see the damn power the money changers and speculators have brought to an end. Seriously. Its really adding to existing democratic deficits no end. There's no political sovereignty so long as these assholes can game any political decision to make fortunes and extort money out of taxpayers.
    Yes I strongly agree with you. Just recently I have read that of the 130 billion or how much was given to Greece only 2% got to the people in the country. The other 98% were used to buy foreign investors out of Greece, so they wont loose any money.

    If you sum that all up and look at it big picture, its basically nothing than banks ripping off tax payer money. You dont even need to study economics to understand that...
    [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEBvftJUwDw&t=0s[/URL]

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    pathwise dependent FDG's Avatar
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    Default

    Yeah, I saw that graph from Nomura.

    I believe the situation has now slightly changed i.e. France's new coin at 1.21 would be strongly overvalued given their current account deficit, especially by comparison to i.e. Belgium or the Netherlands. Moreoever, I don't fully understand how Germany's virtual currency would be the only one being overvalued compared to the current Euro...

    Well, anyway - this even isn't a black swan anymore, most big newspapers like Economics or Financial Times' are talking about a potential complete "decostitution" of the Eurozone
    ENTj 7-3-8 sx/sp

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    resonance entropie's Avatar
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    another problem I see is domestic markets. if things would cost like virtually nothing everywhere except in Germany, they'ld start to start businesses like 'imported goods shops' and so on. to prevent that customs office would become even more rigid than it is today.

    very very sucky problem.
    [URL]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEBvftJUwDw&t=0s[/URL]

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by entropie View Post
    Yes I strongly agree with you. Just recently I have read that of the 130 billion or how much was given to Greece only 2% got to the people in the country. The other 98% were used to buy foreign investors out of Greece, so they wont loose any money.

    If you sum that all up and look at it big picture, its basically nothing than banks ripping off tax payer money. You dont even need to study economics to understand that...
    I agree with that.

    I see two things happening on the present geopolitical scene, one is the banks seeking to beat the odds of the market correction which had to coming on their profits and escalating personal returns, its the application of the "come good times or ill, security" philosophy of the welfare state to the mega rich. Which IS totally unworkable. Some people would argue that the same philosophy is unworkable applied to anyone and especially to everyone, as its popularity with lower or no income groups is on the rise. Although I'd say there's a hell of a lot of difference between the pitence lazy or undependable households make from the state and the mega rich.

    The second thing is finance as a class seeking to defeat Europe as an idea, that's Europe as a vision of an economy and political order which would check their power.

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