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  1. #291
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    I'm arguing against a fundamental premise of Buchanan's argument, that the US economy has actually been healthy recently. GDP growth based upon a credit explosion is an illusion, because when that credit bubble bursts, all of that wealth vanishes. Most people think this is just a recent problem (started during Bush), but it has been going on for decades. Baby boomer spending and parenting habits are at the heart of this.
    The fundamental premise of his argument is that regardless of who's in the white house, austerity is coming.

  2. #292
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    The fundamental premise of his argument is that regardless of who's in the white house, austerity is coming.
    No, that's his conclusion, not a premise.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  3. #293
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    No, that's his conclusion, not a premise.
    OK the premise is that our current financial picture is unsustainable, and therefore regardless of the outcome of the election austerity is coming.

  4. #294
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    OK the premise is that our current financial picture is unsustainable, and therefore regardless of the outcome of the election austerity is coming.
    Part of his argument is that the economy was stronger in the past, so we could afford more programs (whether or not you agree with them ideologically), but because the economy is weaker we can't. My argument is that the economy isn't really weaker. The economy has been weak for decades, with prosperity being an illusion.

    He's right with his demographic argument, wrong with his economic argument. And I can't help but laugh every time someone calls baby boomers "great".
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  5. #295
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    Part of his argument is that the economy was stronger in the past, so we could afford more programs (whether or not you agree with them ideologically), but because the economy is weaker we can't. My argument is that the economy isn't really weaker. The economy has been weak for decades, with prosperity being an illusion.

    He's right with his demographic argument, wrong with his economic argument. And I can't help but laugh every time someone calls baby boomers "great".
    I think a better statement would be, given the demographic trends in the US post WW2 and changes in the composition of the work force (women going to work) we enjoyed a stable period of growth that is reflective of the expansion of the work force during those years.

    These trends, a huge generation of boomers coming to work, and women entering the work force created a level of growth that isn't sustainable in the shifting demographic picture we find in the US.

    While, the credit bubbles and housing bubbles helped to disguise the slowing growth of our workforce, the underlying demographic trends were going to catch up to us sooner or later.

    Now that generation of boomers is leaving the workforce in record numbers and increasing the entitlement burden beyond any reasonable measure.

    We need to reign in gov't spending because most of our budget analysis sets that post ww2 growth pattern as the norm when it isn't.

    We need to adjust our budget projections, and consequently our spending packages, to reflect the slower rate of growth we've seen since the accelerated rate of workforce expansion has ended.

  6. #296
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    I don't know how budget projections are performed, so I can't say that they're "doing it wrong".

    I think it's been obvious for a long, long time that when baby boomers start to retire this nation is in for a heap of trouble regardless of its economic health at the time. And what's sad is that we need them to retire because so many college graduates are unable to find work because the boomers aren't retiring when they were supposed to (because their retirement accounts were wiped out in the financial collapse).
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  7. #297
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    We've been getting more government than we've paid for for far too long.

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