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  1. #261
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    I wonder what the real unemployment rate is.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  2. #262
    Blah Orangey's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by DiscoBiscuit View Post
    We know and don't care.

    Fatalism is boring.
    And naïveté is exasperating.
    Artes, Scientia, Veritasiness

  3. #263
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    I wonder what the real unemployment rate is.


    Saw this a day or two after you asked.

    Makes way more sense than the official unemployment rate.

    I wonder how many people would want to reelect Obama if that is what they regularly saw...

    The Democrats have been touting this 4.5 million private jobs created over the last 30 months as if it's some praiseworthy talking point.

    But the truth of the matter is: you need 150,000 jobs added per month just to keep up with the rate of population growth.

    As such (30 months x 150,000 per month = 4,500,000 jobs), all those jobs are nothing but population growth.

    Hence, why the real unemployment rate has stayed flat at 11% this entire time.

    The only reason it's "gone down" is people dropping out of the labor force.

  4. #264
    my floof is luxury Wind Up Rex's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post


    Saw this a day or two after you asked.

    Makes way more sense than the official unemployment rate.

    I wonder how many people would want to reelect Obama if that is what they regularly saw...

    The Democrats have been touting this 4.5 million private jobs created over the last 30 months as if it's some praiseworthy talking point.

    But the truth of the matter is: you need 150,000 jobs added per month just to keep up with the rate of population growth.

    As such (30 months x 150,000 per month = 4,500,000 jobs), all those jobs are nothing but population growth.

    Hence, why the real unemployment rate has stayed flat at 11% this entire time.

    The only reason it's "gone down" is people dropping out of the labor force.
    Dumb question, but what is the difference between labor force participation and employment? Does the former include people who are underemployed or something along those lines?
    And so long as you haven’t experienced this: to die and so to grow,
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  5. #265
    Analytical Dreamer Coriolis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wind-Up Rex View Post
    Dumb question, but what is the difference between labor force participation and employment? Does the former include people who are underemployed or something along those lines?
    Yes. The unemployment rate decreases as more people find jobs, but also as more people give up looking and drop out of the workforce.

    I would be interested in hearing suggestions for creating jobs at the rate necessary to bring down the unemployment level faster. The best track record comes from (1) FDR's New Deal, and (2) gearing up for war, both of which required substantial government spending.
    I've been called a criminal, a terrorist, and a threat to the known universe. But everything you were told is a lie. The truth is, they've taken our freedom, our home, and our future. The time has come for all humanity to take a stand...

  6. #266
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wind-Up Rex View Post
    Dumb question, but what is the difference between labor force participation and employment? Does the former include people who are underemployed or something along those lines?
    Off the top of my head:

    The unemployment rate = number of unemployed / number in labor force

    The employment rate = number of employed / number in labor force

    The participation rate = number in labor force / population

    As such, when the participation rate goes down, it's either cause, all other things being equal, the number of people in the labor force shrinks, or the population grows larger, or both. The idea here is that people have been dropping out of the labor force, because they can't find work (i.e., discouraged workers), but they're still part of the population. A such, the numerator shrinks, but the denominator stays the same. Thus causing the participation rate to decline. So what this means in reality is that, if you look at the red (unemployment rate) and blue (participation rate) lines in the chart below, that 2% decline, from 10% to 8%, in the red line over the last ~3 years, is really just caused by that decline in the blue line, from 65% to 63%, over the same time period. The "2% decline" in the unemployment rate is really just a 2% decline in the number of people in the labor force, not a 2% increase in the number of people who are now working.



    Back in school, they used to teach us that the Labor Department/Bureau of Labor Statistics started considering people "discouraged workers" after they've been unemployed for 6 months. I'm not sure if that's the definition they're still using or not, or if they've got some other way to measure people who have "stopped looking for work", but, however they're measuring it exactly, a decline in the participation rate basically means people are moving out of the labor force, and, as such, it causes a decline in the denominator of the official unemployment rate calculation, thus causing a decrease in the official unemployment rate, even though it's not cause things are actually getting better, but a sign that things are actually so bad, people have just stopped looking for work (or been unemployed for >6 months).

    Quote Originally Posted by Coriolis View Post
    The unemployment rate decreases as more people find jobs, but also as more people give up looking and drop out of the workforce.
    The short version.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coriolis View Post
    I would be interested in hearing suggestions for creating jobs at the rate necessary to bring down the unemployment level faster.
    I've been working on this, and have posted some of my ideas on here before (check my blog).

    Whether one agrees with it or not, this is what the Ryan Plan is supposed to be about: cross-country studies have shown that higher taxes lead to lower economic growth, and lower economic growth leads to less jobs/higher unemployment. Lower taxes, on the other hand, lead to higher economic growth, and higher economic growth leads to more jobs/lower unemployment.

    It's also been shown that this correlation is strongest when it comes to corporate taxes (which, incidentally, is one of my proposals).

    It's second strongest when it comes to taxes on the wealthier parts of society (i.e., "the job creators").

    It's third strongest when it comes to taxes on the middle class and upper middle class.

    It's fourth strongest when it comes to taxes on the working class.

    And it's weakest when it comes to payroll taxes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Coriolis View Post
    The best track record comes from (1) FDR's New Deal, and (2) gearing up for war, both of which required substantial government spending.
    When the Great Depression started, government spending as a % of GDP was 3%.

    Now, it is closer to 30%.

    In light of the ineffectiveness of the 2009 Stimulus Bill ($250,000 spent per job created), it is very realistic/understandable to question whether Keynes' proposition that the government ought to step in to create demand when the private sector contracts holds as true today as it did back then. Since Keynes' time, the size of government has exploded, and the marginal return of another dollar of fiscal stimulus spent by the government no longer seems to be what it used to. Frankly, we've already been running deficits of ~11% ('09), 10% ('10), 8-9% ('11), and 7% ('12), so it's not like we're not already running huge fiscal stimulus programs. It's just, in light of how our money is increasingly being spent these days (on Medicare and Social Security), that stimulus money is basically going to pay for our parents' healthcare bills, golf lessons, and trips overseas.

    Last edited by Zarathustra; 09-12-2012 at 10:32 AM.

  7. #267
    Analytical Dreamer Coriolis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    It's just, in light of how our money is increasingly being spent these days (on Medicare and Social Security), that stimulus money is basically going to pay for our parents' healthcare bills, golf lessons, and trips overseas.
    But that is still going back into the economy, paying health care providers, golf instructors, and travel agents, etc. Some would argue this is more worthwhile than paying Haliburton contractors in Iraq, for instance.

    (More later - need to check some things.)
    I've been called a criminal, a terrorist, and a threat to the known universe. But everything you were told is a lie. The truth is, they've taken our freedom, our home, and our future. The time has come for all humanity to take a stand...

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    Quote Originally Posted by Coriolis View Post
    But that is still going back into the economy, paying health care providers, golf instructors, and travel agents, etc. Some would argue this is more worthwhile than paying Haliburton contractors in Iraq, for instance.
    Travel agents ain't gettin that high a cut on those overseas trips.

    And I'm not quite sure where I argued in favor of paying Halliburton contractors in Iraq.

  9. #269
    Analytical Dreamer Coriolis's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Travel agents ain't gettin that high a cut on those overseas trips.

    And I'm not quite sure where I argued in favor of paying Halliburton contractors in Iraq.
    You implied that funds were being diverted into the listed categories given the shifting demographics. I am merely throwing out one alternate destination that is less attractive. Travel agents may be small potatoes, but the health care industry is huge, as is the service industry - instructors, hair stylists, repair people - in short, all the jobs we just can't export because the provider has to be on-site.
    I've been called a criminal, a terrorist, and a threat to the known universe. But everything you were told is a lie. The truth is, they've taken our freedom, our home, and our future. The time has come for all humanity to take a stand...

  10. #270
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    Quote Originally Posted by Coriolis View Post
    You implied that funds were being diverted into the listed categories given the shifting demographics. I am merely throwing out one alternate destination that is less attractive. Travel agents may be small potatoes, but the health care industry is huge, as is the service industry - instructors, hair stylists, repair people - in short, all the jobs we just can't export because the provider has to be on-site.
    And all being paid for by adding those checks onto a mounting pile of debt.


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