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  1. #161
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    FYI - i think the only guy their who could possibly steal enough voters from the center and even some of the democrats is paul, and he isn't going to win the nomination.
    Paul would almost certainly be annihilated in the national election, so it hardly matters that he can't get the nomination.
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  2. #162
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by EvidenceOfRedemption View Post
    Could you be mixing in some of your own political or economics pinions here?
    Yeah, I don't think Santorum's complicated enough to be that 'sneaky' -- he actually believes this crazy stuff he's saying.
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  3. #163
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Paul would almost certainly be annihilated in the national election, so it hardly matters that he can't get the nomination.
    if he won the nomination he'd get the republican base voting for him, with so many of his supporters otherwise not voting at all or usually preferring the democrats over the republicans as a 'lesser evil', he'd be able to tap a massive amount of the center-right and center-left and even obama-doubting democrats. the only way he'd loose is if the republican base abandons him at the voting booth, and since the requirement for this hypothetical scenario to happen is that he'd win the republican nomination, we would safetly be able to say that he has already won republican base prior to running in the national elections.

    ofcourse this is all hypothetical... what i am saying is that its not going to happen: ron paul isn't going to win the republican party, romney & santorum are too extreme on the religious-right wedge issues to get a single center-left or even center-right voter to their side, not to mention the many doubting-democrats. we're talking about a nation where 1-term presidents are exceptionally rare as it is, and right now the chances of that happening are even gloomier then in other elections elections.

  4. #164
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    Quote Originally Posted by xisnotx View Post
    I'm not sure Ron Paul supporters are as significant as they like to think. If, theoretically, Ron Paul were to endorse a candidate..or run under him...does that give that candidate an definitive edge? I really don't think so.
    His significance, at least one part of it, is that, if he were to run as the libertarian candidate, he might pull 10% of the vote.

    That is significant.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    how often does america actually not re-elect the existing president? i don't remember exactly but i though it was one of the rarest events in american history...
    It's not that uncommon.

    Bush I, Carter, Ford, LBJ (he decided not to run, though), and many before (I'm doing this by memory, not wikipedia, but plenty of Presidents from the 19th century were one-termers).

    It's not nearly as rare as you make it out to be.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    FYI - i think the only guy their who could possibly steal enough voters from the center and even some of the democrats is paul, and he isn't going to win the nomination.
    All last year, Romney was polling exceptionally well among Independents.

    The only thing that's really hurting him now is the need to cater to the base to win the nomination.

    Quote Originally Posted by Elfboy View Post
    Ron Paul is not going to endorse another candidate. also, he got 3,000,000 votes last election without even being on the ballet, and his following has multiplied since then (it's probably at least 10,000,000 now, and those are just the hardcore supporters)
    Let's be real: is there anything but a hardcore Ron Paul supporter?



    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    The last time it happened, it was Bush Sr. Before that, Jimmy Carter. Both lost pretty badly. If Obama loses (which I doubt will happen), it won't be a blowout like those two elections.
    Agreed.

    Obama's looking stronger right now than he has in a long time.

    When it comes down to it, though, it's all about the unemployment number.

    If unemployment is at or below 8.0%, Obama will win no matter what.

    If unemployment is between 8.0% and 8.4%, it's a toss-up.

    (<=8.2%, I lean Obama; >8.2%, I lean Romney)

    If unemployment is over 8.4%, Romney wins.

    Those aren't perfect, obviously, but they're pretty good guides.

    Amazingly, so much of that number will come down to the number of discouraged job-seekers coming back into the labor force, and how well they're captured in the Labor Department's numbers.

    Quote Originally Posted by wheelchairdoug View Post
    Way to both bear false witness and implicitly encourage some of the public's unwillingness to pursue higher education for your own gain at the expense of the country's economy, Santorum.
    I'm willing to say that if someone decided not to go to college because Rick Santorum said it's the Devil's factory, then that person probably shouldn't have been going to college in the first place.

    Quote Originally Posted by Victor View Post
    Which candidate would be best for Oz?

    Well, they would all be equally good, for our interest lies in keeping the 7th Fleet in the Western Pacific and getting the US economy healthy and innovating.

    We have no interest in culture wars so there seems to us to be little need to change Presidents.
    You're probably just fine with either Romney or Obama.

    An argument might be made that the US economy would do better under a Romney administration.

    But that depends on the policies he would pursue as President, which are still uncertain, and is contestable.

    If he were to pursue austerity measures too quickly, a la the Europeans, then the economy might be better off under Obama.

    I somewhat doubt he would do that, though, and Obama could very well go in the opposite direction, which would hurt the US economy in the LR.

    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Yeah, I don't think Santorum's complicated enough to be that 'sneaky' -- he actually believes this crazy stuff he's saying.
    The funny thing is, if he just took out the devil stuff, how many people would really disagree with him?

    Our universities are bastions of the left, and so is our media; and neither, but especially our media, are exactly promoters of moral virtue.

    I hate Santorum as much as the next person, but, if he said the same thing, but in more secular terms, nobody would've blinked.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    if he won the nomination he'd get the republican base voting for him, with so many of his supporters otherwise not voting at all or usually preferring the democrats over the republicans as a 'lesser evil', he'd be able to tap a massive amount of the center-right and center-left and even obama-doubting democrats. the only way he'd loose is if the republican base abandons him at the voting booth, and since the requirement for this hypothetical scenario to happen is that he'd win the republican nomination, we would safetly be able to say that he has already won republican base prior to running in the national elections.
    I don't think your assumption that so many of Ron Paul's supporters "usually prefer the democrates over the republicans as a 'lesser evil'" is that accurate.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    ofcourse this is all hypothetical... what i am saying is that its not going to happen: ron paul isn't going to win the republican party, romney & santorum are too extreme on the religious-right wedge issues to get a single center-left or even center-right voter to their side, not to mention the many doubting-democrats.
    Nor is your assumption that Romney is too extreme on the religious-right wedge issues. That's just blatantly inaccurate. Romney used to be pro-choice. You need to look at his record, not the bullshit he says just to win the Republican nomination. Also, as one of the two moderates in the Republican race (Huntsman was the other), he's polled very well among political Independents.

    Quote Originally Posted by Mane View Post
    we're talking about a nation where 1-term presidents are exceptionally rare as it is, and right now the chances of that happening are even gloomier then in other elections elections.
    I don't think this is necessarily accurate, either.

    Obama is looking good right now, cuz we've now had three straight months of good jobs numbers, and the last two months the unemployment rate dropped very rapidly (not because that many people actually got jobs, but because people stopped looking). From now til the election, if the economy keeps adding >200K jobs a month, a lot of people who had previously stopped looking for work are gunna start up again, and this is gunna cause the unemployment rate to increase (assuming the Labor Department does a good job capturing these formerly disgruntled job-seekers). If this causes the unemployment rate to stay >8.4%, and Romney chooses the right running mate, and runs the campaign well, he very well could win the nomination (and none of those things are horribly out of the realm of possibility). Last I checked (about 3 weeks ago), on In-trade, the market for betting about these kinds of things, Romney had about a 30% chance of winning the Presidency. I thought it was a buy, as it should increase to at least 45% between now and November, if he wins the Republican nomination (there's still an outside chance that, if Gingrich drops out soon, Santorum could pick up the nomination -- which, frankly, is terrifying [although, he would never win the election]) which would yield a nice 50% return in about 6 months time.

  5. #165
    Senior Member captain curmudgeon's Avatar
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    @Jennifer and @ EvidenceofRedemption

    My remark is undoubtedly colored by my political beliefs, but that doesn't make it any less laughable and easy to poke fun at. Unfortunately, I suppose I would agree that Santorum genuinely believes what he says. On the other hand, I think he genuinely is incapable of distinguishing the many different levels of higher education from one another, which for an elected official (from my state no less) is scary as hell. If you're enough of an idiot to assume that, politically speaking, different setting of higher education would tend to have similar voting patterns (what are the chances that local vo-tech grads are going to vote in the same fashion as university students or those in some sort of apprenticeship?) , imo you don't have the capability to understand the nuances of American society to the degree which is necessary for an elected official to effectively carry out their duty.

  6. #166
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wheelchairdoug View Post
    My remark is undoubtedly colored by my political beliefs, but that doesn't make it any less laughable and easy to poke fun at. Unfortunately, I suppose I would agree that Santorum genuinely believes what he says. On the other hand, I think he genuinely is incapable of distinguishing the many different levels of higher education from one another, which for an elected official (from my state no less) is scary as hell. If you're enough of an idiot to assume that, politically speaking, different setting of higher education would tend to have similar voting patterns (what are the chances that local vo-tech grads are going to vote in the same fashion as university students or those in some sort of apprenticeship?) , imo you don't have the capability to understand the nuances of American society to the degree which is necessary for an elected official to effectively carry out their duty.
    Well, that's your opinion, of course (which I generally agree with myself).

    Obviously, if you heard the little YouTube ditty earlier and examined who supports Santorum, you'll see what that group thinks "good credentials" are for a public leader. Scarier are what kind of support base prioritizes that kind of approach, I guess. If Santorum was a Muslim instead of a Christian, or an atheist instead of a Christian, and pushing his particular values in the exact same way, they'd freak.
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  7. #167
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    alright @Zarathustra, you convinced me the daily show was a bad source of information. 17/44 one-term presidents really isn't that unlikely (not sure how many of those died or got impeached in their first term though)... it also seem to be common in times of recession and depression. i guess it's plausible that Obama would be a one term president and that these elections aren't as much of a meaningless joke as i thought they'll be..

    as for your question about ron paul fans, i think your impression of ron paul fans is probably misguided, it's difficult to find libertarians who agree on any solutions about what should be done, it's really more of a half-hearted consensus about a lot of things that shouldn't. it's why its probably one of the most well known persistently failing movements in history. but who knows, maybe the oil rig cities thing...

  8. #168
    Senior Member Wanderer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by wheelchairdoug View Post
    Right. Because integrity is totally the same thing as running as an ardent follower of Christianity, then blatantly misquoting the current president for your own gain.

    Way to both bear false witness and implicitly encourage some of the public's unwillingness to pursue higher education for your own gain at the expense of the country's economy, Santorum.
    Integrity defined as "adherence to moral and ethical principles; soundness of moral character; honesty."
    Santorum does have Obama beat in that arena, simply because Santorum does not yet have any broken campaign promises.

    Also; You don't have to misquote Obama to make him look bad. He has a lot of "Obama-isms" that are highly reminiscent of the Bush-ism's everyone was so fond of xD
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EpGH02DtIws

    That's more of an aside though; where did Santorum misquote Obama?

  9. #169
    Senior Member captain curmudgeon's Avatar
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    He stated that Obama said that he wants everyone to go to college. At best, this is taking his remark that he wants everyone to seek at least a year of education or job training beyond high school and severely contorting it.

  10. #170
    Senior Member Beargryllz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Elfboy View Post
    Ron Paul is not going to endorse another candidate. also, he got 3,000,000 votes last election without even being on the ballet, and his following has multiplied since then (it's probably at least 10,000,000 now, and those are just the hardcore supporters)
    http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/res...allcandidates/

    Looks like Paul received 19,000 votes in 2008, ahead of The Phillies and None of these candidates

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