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  1. #101
    Senior Member Survive & Stay Free's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Man. The more Santorum and Gingrich share success, the less likely it is they can stop Romney, meaning the higher odds he will face Obama. I was really hoping Obama would get to run against Gingrich.

    I suppose things could be looking worse for Obama though.
    I know that a lot of commentators here at least are suggesting that the Obama is invincible, I'm not convinced.

    I think that the Republicans are looking far better than they should at this point and worry that there was a kind of mobilisation to elect Obama the first time which couldnt be repeated, I'm not sure what the expectations of Obama were to be honest, there's some quarters which really had a messianic thing going on.

  2. #102
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I'm reluctantly supporting Romney; he reminds me of a Republican version of Bill Clinton-unprincipled, but competent, and the most likely to strategically balance major party concerns with the preferences of Indpendents.
    At least now it makes sense why he swung hard right on the Prop 8 thing yesterday; that was a pretty strong stance to take, but considering how he was getting (and expecting to get) hammered by Santorum, he's trying to solidify himself as a conservative candidate (not that I think it will that effective at this point).
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

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  3. #103
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    I know that a lot of commentators here at least are suggesting that the Obama is invincible, I'm not convinced.
    Really? I should read the whole thread, then; my impression from national media is that Obama was getting the stuffings kicked out of him until just recently, when his poll numbers started going up... partly because the Republicans can't seem to find consensus on a candidate, and because the economy isn't doing as horribly at the moment.

    In any case, considering how wildly I have seen poll numbers fluctuate in the last 3-4 presidential elections, it's too hard to gauge someone's success this far out. Things will be clearer a few weeks before the presidential election. Aside from the broad polls, it's not really clear whether Obama will pull out another term or not.

    I think that the Republicans are looking far better than they should at this point and worry that there was a kind of mobilisation to elect Obama the first time which couldnt be repeated, I'm not sure what the expectations of Obama were to be honest, there's some quarters which really had a messianic thing going on.
    Why do you think the Republicans look far better? They're completely stymied on a candidate (down to three, one of which has little funding or infrastructure), and it's clear they are still torn between moderate and strongly conservative influences in terms of what their party should stand for. They had a much stronger mandate when the tea partiers came into office, but it was squandered via the politicking and infighting, almost resulting in a government shutdown twice. The only positive is that there's only three candidates left at this point, so at least they have things narrowed down... but they're all damaging each other whether they like to admit it or not, providing fodder for the Dems to capitalize on once the dust clears.

    IOW, the basis for your opinion is not really clear.

    I agree with messianic thing; that's one reason why Obama's numbers are so low. Peoples' goals for him were not quantified, but apparently he could not live up to their expectations.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  4. #104
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    At least now it makes sense why he swung hard right on the Prop 8 thing yesterday; that was a pretty strong stance to take, but considering how he was getting (and expecting to get) hammered by Santorum, he's trying to solidify himself as a conservative candidate (not that I think it will that effective at this point).
    I hope he's smart enough not too paint himself into a corner on that issue....did he go so far as to endorse a Constitutional Amendment?

  5. #105
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    I hope he's smart enough not too paint himself into a corner on that issue....did he go so far as to endorse a Constitutional Amendment?
    Here's his statement as quoted by the Washington Post:

    Today, unelected judges cast aside the will of the people of California who voted to protect traditional marriage. This decision does not end this fight, and I expect it to go to the Supreme Court. That prospect underscores the vital importance of this election and the movement to preserve our values. I believe marriage is between a man and a woman and, as president, I will protect traditional marriage and appoint judges who interpret the Constitution as it is written and not according to their own politics and prejudices.
    So I guess he didn't commit to an actual amendment, specifically, although that could implicitly be read into his comments.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  6. #106
    ^He pronks, too! Magic Poriferan's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    I know that a lot of commentators here at least are suggesting that the Obama is invincible, I'm not convinced.

    I think that the Republicans are looking far better than they should at this point and worry that there was a kind of mobilisation to elect Obama the first time which couldnt be repeated, I'm not sure what the expectations of Obama were to be honest, there's some quarters which really had a messianic thing going on.
    Here? You mean Ireland?

    Let me fill you in; it's not popular to call Obama invincible in the USA. I certainly wasn't saying he was. The whole point I was making is that I wanted him to have a weak opponent like Gingrich so that he could win, but that his small lead over Romney is actually better than I was expecting. The popular thing to say is that this is the Republican's race to lose. I suspect European might not believe it out of sheer incredulity. They're not familiar enough with American culture. The Republican candidates might never have a chance in France, UK, Germany etc.. but they are quite viable here.
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  7. #107
    Senior Member Survive & Stay Free's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Magic Poriferan View Post
    Here? You mean Ireland?

    Let me fill you in; it's not popular to call Obama invincible in the USA. I certainly wasn't saying he was. The whole point I was making is that I wanted him to have a weak opponent like Gingrich so that he could win, but that his small lead over Romney is actually better than I was expecting. The popular thing to say is that this is the Republican's race to lose. I suspect European might not believe it out of sheer incredulity. They're not familiar enough with American culture. The Republican candidates might never have a chance in France, UK, Germany etc.. but they are quite viable here.
    Here in the UK, I didnt think you were saying that, I'm pretty attuned to the US political scene and know exactly what you're talking about. A lot of UK politicians are very envious of it because they like what I would call, as an outsider, the "performance art" of US politics, lots of strong, strong but objectively, at least in the economic sense, inconsequential views which the election can be contested on. Its a kind of economic conservative consensus, like the liberal consensus which existed years ago or which Thatcher-Reagan suggested they were smashing, and in the UK the politicians, at least Blair and his followers on the "left" and the conservatives, would love that to prevail here.

    People still tend to be a little more culturally conservative, fiscally more left wing and dont care about religion (most of them are hardline athiests of the young, dont care, this is all old variety) or the issues surrounding homosexuality (in a fairly unthinking way everyone's in favour of it, most of the politicians are openly practicing gays, the whole Oxford and Cambridge universities scene, from which most of them are drawn, until recently were hotbeds of gay relationships, authors like JG Ballard testified to this and the extent to which heterosexuals were considered "spoil sports").

  8. #108
    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    So I guess he didn't commit to an actual amendment, specifically, although that could implicitly be read into his comments.
    It seems calculated so that social conservatives and Independents/moderates can read into what they want (or would tolerate); after his hardline stance on the Dream Act*, I was afraid he'd go too far with his pandering, again.

    Its a delicate issue for socially libertarian Constitutional conservatives like myself; either coalition is liable to lead to something I strongly oppose (i.e. expansive Constitutional interpretations that can have far-reaching consequences beyond gay marriage, or an Amendment that would stain the Constitution for years until its finally repealed). I hope he categorically rules out an Amendment sometime in the future....hopefully, he'll recognize that an Amendment was unpopular even when a majority of Independents/moderates still opposed gay marriage.

    *Either he's calculating that the populist white vote will be more significant than the Hispanic vote for the next five years, or he's planning to to change his position after nominally 'securing' the border, as per the 'secure the borders first' argument (I pretty much operate under the assumption that he has no particularly strong opinions on non-economic issues).

  9. #109
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post

    *Either he's calculating that the populist white vote will be more significant than the Hispanic vote for the next five years, or he's planning to to change his position after nominally 'securing' the border, as per the 'secure the borders first' argument (I pretty much operate under the assumption that he has no particularly strong opinions on non-economic issues).
    He really does seem to fish around alot.

    I remember how Bush won the nom in 2000 -- by swinging hard right at Bob Jones and in the south in order to get a lock past McCain who was surging at the time, then basically swinging back to the mid-ground on issues for the rest of the campaign. It seems like such a game sometimes. The goal is to avoid as much inconsistency as possible and keeping as much flexibility, while appealing to enough of the right people at the right time to stay alive in the race... since if you don't survive the early stages, it doesn't matter how consistent you are.
    "Hey Capa -- We're only stardust." ~ "Sunshine"

    “Pleasure to me is wonder—the unexplored, the unexpected, the thing that is hidden and the changeless thing that lurks behind superficial mutability. To trace the remote in the immediate; the eternal in the ephemeral; the past in the present; the infinite in the finite; these are to me the springs of delight and beauty.” ~ H.P. Lovecraft

  10. #110
    Secret Sex Freak Hazashin's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pure_mercury View Post
    What does the Dalai Lama's political agenda entail?
    I'm not sure what his 'agenda' is, but I know he embraces left-wing libertarian and democratic socialist ideas. And he advocates peace.
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