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View Poll Results: Who's your GOP pick for 2012?

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  • Bachmann

    0 0%
  • Cain

    1 3.33%
  • Gingrich

    0 0%
  • Huntsman

    4 13.33%
  • Paul

    23 76.67%
  • Perry

    0 0%
  • Romney

    2 6.67%
  • Santorum

    0 0%
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  1. #211
    Senior Member Beargryllz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Yes.

    The Great Depression.
    Taxes were raised

    What happened?

  2. #212
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    Taxes were raised
    Yes.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    What happened?
    Exactly what I said would happen.

    Quote Originally Posted by http://www.econlib.org/library/Enc/GreatDepression.html
    Hoover’s fiscal policy accelerated the decline. In December 1929, as a means of demonstrating the administration’s faith in the economy, Hoover had reduced all 1929 income tax rates by 1 percent because of the continuing budget surpluses. By 1930 the surplus had turned into a deficit that grew rapidly as the economy contracted. By the end of 1931 Hoover had decided to recommend a large tax increase in an attempt to balance the budget; Congress approved the tax increase in 1932. Personal exemptions were reduced sharply to increase the number of taxpayers, and rates were sharply increased. The lowest marginal rate rose from 1.125 percent to 4.0 percent, and the top marginal rate rose from 25 percent on taxable income in excess of $100,000 to 63 percent on taxable income in excess of $1 million as the rates were made much more progressive. We now understand that such a huge tax increase does not promote recovery during a contraction. By reducing households’ disposable income, it led to a reduction in household spending and a further contraction in economic activity.

  3. #213
    Senior Member Beargryllz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Yes.

    Exactly what I said would happen.
    What would you interpret as a major factor in promoting recovery?

    What policies could be implemented to promote recovery?

  4. #214
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    What would you interpret as a major factor in promoting recovery?
    Taking on excessive government debt for defense spending on WWII.

    Which is why I am afraid that we may be entering WWIV.

    (We already had WWIII: the Cold War.)

  5. #215
    Senior Member Beargryllz's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Taking on excessive government debt for defense spending on WWII.

    Which is why I am afraid that we may be entering WWIV.

    (We already had WWIII: the Cold War.)
    Would taxes be raised to pay for this?

    In WWII, the top marginal tax rate was 80-90%

    Would this no longer be possible? If not, why not?

  6. #216
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Yes.

    The Great Depression.
    It led to a worsening of an ongoing crisis - the economy was already crippled.

  7. #217
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    Quote Originally Posted by SmileyMan View Post
    I doubt that.
    I wasn't sure whether you were trolling, or just didn't know the truth, and hadn't read what I'd posted in my next post.

    Seeing as how you deleted this response, it appears to have been the latter.

    Quote Originally Posted by SmileyMan View Post
    It led to a worsening of an ongoing crisis - the economy was already crippled.
    Yes.

    That was my point.

    That raising taxes would worsen the present crisis.

  8. #218
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    What policies could be implemented to promote recovery?
    I have been writing you a long response, but I am having trouble finding the right charts (which I have found before, and have on my hard drive, just not as links), and this has been taking a really long time already, and my brain is feeling rather fried. This is a complicated question, to which I have been devoting essentially the last 7 years of my life, and, truth be told, there is not an easy answer. I do have a pretty good idea, based on my efforts, which solutions are better and worse than one another. Providing "proof" of this stuff is tedious, and it's not like somebody is paying me to do this for you. What intuition can know, it can be much harder to prove. It's also very time-and-energy-consuming trying to put to words things as complex as intuitions about which I have devoted great time and energy forming, fact-checking, further forming, and further fact-checking.

    I understand this is not a satisfying response, but here are two nuggets you can chew on in the meantime:


    There are others I've been working on, but the way I work is not... I couldn't just lay it all out there in the open very easily.

    I have been a devoted political and economics junkie since I was 8 years old.

    I studied economics in college (and took it very seriously).

    I foresaw this crisis coming since the spring of 2004.

    In the Spring of 2005, I was taking a class with one of the four prominent economists of the Great Depression mentioned in that article I linked, and, after class one day, had a conversation talking about what I foresaw, during which time he said, "Perhaps you're being pessimistic", and I responded, "Unfortunately, I'm just being realistic."

    And I was right.

    Intuitions of how things will work out are like visions.

    They take into account so many factors, and how all of these factors will combine, and what will result from it.

    That's why they're not exactly easy to elucidate: they're like a jumbled mess of a moving image that just makes sense -- to us.

    It's why, when I'm talking with people on here, I just disregard what they're saying, if I know that it's dumb, rather than engage with it.

    It's not worth the time to go through the process of translating intuitive images to words when the other side doesn't offer anything.

    I have a very accurate gauge for when people do or don't know what they're talking about.

    It's like a constant tuning fork: the closer they are to the truth, the more clearly it rings.

    When it comes to politics and economics, most people are full of shit.

    Anyway, the above gives you a little something to chew on.
    Last edited by Zarathustra; 11-25-2011 at 03:39 AM.

  9. #219
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    Would taxes be raised to pay for this?
    The answer to this question is not that hard.

    Quote Originally Posted by Beargryllz View Post
    In WWII, the top marginal tax rate was 80-90%

    Would this no longer be possible? If not, why not?
    The answer to this one is.

    Short answer: raising taxes to those levels would be horrible for the economy.

    I also think going to World War IV would likely be horrible as well.

    There are other solutions that would be much better.

  10. #220
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