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  1. #41
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    Quote Originally Posted by ZPowers View Post
    For Romney and Huntsman supporters, yeah, sure.

    But Newt "Any ad which quotes what I said is a falsehood" Gingrich? Newt "this country will be radical Islamist by the time my grandkids are my age" Gingrich? Newt "the (local, American, and if the title of the book being 'Obama's Socialist Secular Machine' is any indication, Obama-run) socialist secular machine is as big a threat to America as the Nazis and Communists" Gingrich? Dude's still slinging some crazy stuff (and that a ton of his key campaign people walked out and suggested he drop out themselves while he was on vacation doesn't really bode so well for the dude having great organizational or motivational skills). I don't see the sense in supporting Newt so much. On the other hand, almost no one does.
    It's very easy to paint most any politician as a nutjob, if you want to (I could go straight for Joe Biden, the entire Democratic Leadership in Congress, and, hell, even Obama if I wanted to, and paint a pretty absurd picture, if I wanted to), and, obviously I would never say that Newt's not a bit of an eccentric, but he's not what I would call an anti-gay, anti-science, religious extremist (I'd recommend refraining from Google-searching Newt quotes that could be construed in this way, as I've been observing the guy for 15+ years, and feel I've got a better read on him than some potentially out-of-context quote from who-knows-when and who-knows-where said for who-knows-why reason and who-knows-how-he-would-respond-in-person if the quote was to be discussed further); you might not like him, and he certainly makes a habit of stretching the Republican position on issues to its furthest logical possibility, but the real question comes down to what % of the people who currently support him will go to Romney when he eventually bows out, and what % will go to Cain/Perry (Bachmann's really not even in this race anymore); I've been considering this question a lot over the last couple months, as it will be a primary factor in determiningg whether the cooler heads in the party (i.e., Romney) win or whether the crazies (Cain or Perry) do; personally, I think at least 60%-70% will go to Romney. Also, you should probably pay a bit closer attention to the polls, cuz Newt's actually had a strong showing over the last two months or so, and is now averaging over 12% in the polls, putting him in 3rd place, above Perry and Ron Paul. In case you're not familiar with it, the best site for following the polls that I've discovered is Real Clear Politics (LINK).

    Oh, and also, his camp left him after his vacation in Europe because they realized he's not taking the election seriously; this is just a way for him to get more press, sell more books, and further expand his reputation/brand; if you've watched any of the debates, he's essentially taken on the role of Republican party cheerleader (and actually done a pretty good job -- which is probably a significant part of the reason why his poll numbers have been strong as of late).

    Quote Originally Posted by ZPowers View Post
    Also, I won't speak to religious extremism in the party (obviously subjective), but statistically Lateralus is right on Republicans as anti-gay (or, at least anti-gay marriage. Only 28 percent think it should be legal according to Gallup in 2011) and anti-science (also according to Gallup in 2009 a full 68% believe God created humans in the last 10,000 years, an idea which, when examining even cursory scientific evidence, is completely absurd. Of the remaining 32%, 28% said our evolution was guided by God). In any case, the answering of the question "do you believe in evolution" is pretty much undoubtedly a trickier political issue for Republicans than Democrats.
    I don't really care much if people want to think evolution was guided by God -- I remember coming up with the same idea on my own when I was about nine, before the term Intelligent Design existed, I believe (also, if you look at the history of the theory of evolution, many prominent figures in its development believed the same thing, including, I believe, Darwin's grandfather, Erasmus Darwin [from whom, iirc, Darwin largely copped the idea of evolution]) -- and I'm a (moderate) libertarian, so I don't really care what the social conservatives believe, so long as they're not able to take their socially conservative agenda too far, and still support economic freedom (which is pretty much definitional -- if they don't then they're not conservatives on the dual axis-political spectrum, they're fascists/authoritarians/totalitarians/statists [interestingly enough, though, in my opinion {and I think I'm correct}, Bush II actually slid between the conservative and fascist/authoritarian/totalitarian/statist corners, due to his big government policies {huge spending bills for energy, transportation, Medicare, et al}, which is in large part why many conservatives turned against him later in his Presidency]).


  2. #42
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    but the real question comes down to what % of the people who currently support him will go to Romney when he eventually bows out, and what % will go to Cain/Perry (Bachmann's really not even in this race anymore); I've been considering this question a lot over the last couple months, as it will be a primary factor in determiningg whether the cooler heads in the party (i.e., Romney) win or whether the crazies (Cain or Perry) do;
    After the lame drunken speech Perry gave the other day, I'm done with him.
    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YSJv-2qfDNc

    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    personally, I think at least 60%-70% will go to Romney.
    Let's hope God saves the king! (For he's surrounded by idiots.) : D

  3. #43
    Striving for balance Little Linguist's Avatar
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    Looks like I am not taking the trouble of sending an absentee ballot. One joker after another, just like every election. And the one guy who doesn't absolutely repulse me doesn't have a shot in hell of getting anywhere, and even if he did wouldn't have a shot in hell of implementing what he wants to get accomplished, so it would just lead to a lame-duck presidency anyway.
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  4. #44
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    In the most recent polls, Romney has just retaken a slight lead over Cain (LINK).

    Newt seems to have taken votes from Cain over the sexual harassment spillout, surging to >14% avg over the last week.

    For the first time, Newt's actually starting to enter the territory of a legitimate contender...

    Perry and Cain have each already taken the ropes of the more conservative side of the party.

    Will Newt now take those reins, as sort of middleman between the more moderate and more conservative elements going forward?

    Lot to watch for going forward:

    • In spite of his recent gaffe, will Perry manage a resurgence?
    • Will Cain fall off the charts much like Perry did? And, if so, where will those votes go (back to Perry? to Newt?)?
    • Will Newt's surge be cut off shortly, or will he manage to keep it going into January and the first primaries?
    • How far and long will this several week dip for Romney go? Note: he's already experienced (shallow) dips and comebacks before.

    As much as I don't really like any of the candidates that much (my preference would have been for Christie), and as much as I really don't like most of them, it is going to be a very interesting primary race...

  5. #45
    Senior Member Lateralus's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post


    What is this thread, memes from eight-year-old Family Guy episodes?

    Obviously, that only describes the Cain, Perry, and Bachmann supporters.

    The Romney, Gingrich, and Hunstman supporters still have their sanity.
    You describe a shrinking portion of the Republican party. The Romney/Gringrich/Huntsman supporters who still call themselves Republicans are living in denial as long as they are still members of the party. Eventually, reality will hit them right in the face and they will become independent.
    "We grow up thinking that beliefs are something to be proud of, but they're really nothing but opinions one refuses to reconsider. Beliefs are easy. The stronger your beliefs are, the less open you are to growth and wisdom, because "strength of belief" is only the intensity with which you resist questioning yourself. As soon as you are proud of a belief, as soon as you think it adds something to who you are, then you've made it a part of your ego."

  6. #46
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lateralus View Post
    You describe a shrinking portion of the Republican party. The Romney/Gringrich/Huntsman supporters who still call themselves Republicans are living in denial as long as they are still members of the party. Eventually, reality will hit them right in the face and they will become independent.
    Well, yeah, duh.

    Really, they're libertarians, though.

    As, actually, are most the people on the Democrat/Independent divide.

    In fact, I think most Independents in America are a moderate sort of libertarian.

    As are Romney and Huntsman; Newt is probably a little more Conservative than these two.

  7. #47
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    Quote Originally Posted by Zarathustra View Post
    Will Newt now take those reins, as sort of middleman between the more moderate and more conservative elements going forward?

    Lot to watch for going forward:

    • In spite of his recent gaffe, will Perry manage a resurgence?
    • Will Cain fall off the charts much like Perry did? And, if so, where will those votes go (back to Perry? to Newt?)?
    • Will Newt's surge be cut off shortly, or will he manage to keep it going into January and the first primaries?
    • How far and long will this several week dip for Romney go? Note: he's already experienced (shallow) dips and comebacks before.

    As much as I don't really like any of the candidates that much (my preference would have been for Christie), and as much as I really don't like most of them, it is going to be a very interesting primary race...
    Wow...

    So it's five days later, and I just checked back in with the polls, and it looks like Newt definitely is taking over the Conservative mantle like I thought he might.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...tion-1452.html

    In the last five days, he went from just >14% (which was a huge gain in itself) to >21%.

    Cain seems to be dropping, like I thought he would, in light of the sexual harassment scandals and his general inadequacy, and those votes seem to be shifting over to Newt.

    Newt's an interesting character in this regard, because he can appeal to both the Conservative base of the party, as well as possibly to Independents. The guy is, at his core, a pragmatist. He is an idea guy. And he already led Congress to balance the budget back in the Clinton administration, so his proven leadership in this regard could be considered a valuable asset during these times of complete fiscal unsustainability. The real question is whether he will alienate the more moderate Independents or not. The winner of this election will be the person who wins the Independents. Can Newt do that? Or does the perception of those on the left that he is a right-wing nut bleed significantly over into the Independent population? It's an interesting question.

    For a while now, I've actually been thinking that a Romney-Gingrich ticket might be interesting.

    To be honest, though, just like each time I've thought about it, as I write it now, it sounds like a loser to me.

    Just like McCain-Romney sounded like a loser to me last time around, I just don't think Romney-Gingrich will get the job done.

    To be honest, when you put the two side-by-side, McCain-Romney sounds a lot stronger, but, well, we're living in different times now.

    Empty promises of hope and change from an apparent messiah who's come to redeem a nation will not work this time.

    So, yeah, sorry about that, enough rambling/projecting out into the future: time to dig down into the questions I laid out last time.

    1. There's still the question of a Perry resurgence, but I think he's a longshot to win the primary.
    2. Cain is falling off the charts, but I'm not sure if he's gunna fall as far as Perry. That's a very interesting question, though.
    3. Newt and Cain have had the two most meteoric surges in this race. Will Newt's fall just as fast, or can he keep it going?
    4. The Romney dip is still looking a lot like the dip he experienced over the summer. I suspect he'll recover from it.

    So, yeah, I think the real questions now are: how far will Cain fall, and can Newt keep up this surge?

    A follow-up to that would be: will the Conservative/Tea Party side eventually throw its weight behind just one of these candidates? Or will the more conservative candidates just split that vote, leaving it to Romney and the more moderate Republicans to win the nomination. That's seeming like the most likely scenario to me right now, but it will depend on how far Cain falls, and whether Newt's able to sustain this huge surge he's experiencing. Also, where will Ron Paul's supporters go when he bows out?

    Til next time.


  8. #48
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nerd Girl View Post
    Let me briefly explain why I say "hell no" to Herman Cain. The job of "President of the United States of America" is not an entry level position! Cain does not have the political experience, thus he will not be a strong enough candidate to kick Obama out of the White House. I predict, if Cain runs against Obama, he will make a couple of rooky blunders and Obama will win the election.

    What's funny about this thread is that clearly Herman Cain is the man and we've failed to see something that the majority sees. How else does it happen that a pizzaman CEO ends up atop the Republican presidential polls and the latest news is that he's leading? Perplexing.

    http://news.yahoo.com/herman-cain-ab...132411104.html

    EDIT: I guess since most of y'all aren't Republican, this all must be pretty amusing.
    It's not a logical decision, it's pure emotion. My ISTJ dad is a big supporter of Herman Cain; I've brought up his total political inexperience and asked him how he can still support him when there are much better alternatives, and his response is that he doesn't trust politicians, and doesn't want a politician. This is the kind of thinking that people are up against. It's all about how a candidate makes people feel, not whether they're actually qualified or not. I hate politics...
    You lose.

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  9. #49
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    Quote Originally Posted by freeeekyyy View Post
    It's all about how a candidate makes people feel, not whether they're actually qualified or not. I hate politics...
    That's just the presidential election. In most other elections feelings don't even matter and it's pure name recognition that gets people elected.

    "Santorum. Hmmmm. Yeah I've heard that name before."
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  10. #50
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    Quote Originally Posted by Beefeater View Post
    That's just the presidential election. In most other elections feelings don't even matter and it's pure name recognition that gets people elected.

    "Santorum. Hmmmm. Yeah I've heard that name before."
    Rick Santorum makes me physically ill...
    You lose.

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