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  1. #41
    Glowy Goopy Goodness The_Liquid_Laser's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Jennifer View Post
    Remember that (1) Prop 8 was originally ignored by the same-sex supporters because they didn't think it would pass and (2) the Mormon church and other out-of-state orgs targeted CA as a state to push their legislation in and dumped a hell of a lot of money into that fight before opposition mounted, and also targeted new Hispanic immigrants comprising an increasingly large percentage of the state, appealing to fear. As it was, the race was still tight (I think within a percentage point).
    Yeah I remember all that. I also remember that people showed up to vote for Obama in droves at the same time. Every liberal and his cousin was at the polls that day. This bill still didn't pass, and this was in California. To me gay rights still has a long way to go. Gay rights hasn't had a vote yet go its way in any state that I'm aware of.

    Now I admit all that can change. But a poll that says a majority support gay rights seems a little disingenuous to me. Where is this majority? They sure aren't voting if they are out there. Or is it a gay version of the Bradley Effect?

    I don't know. Maybe what this poll says is that it's time to try another bill in a blue state like California or New Jersey or someplace like that. Personally, I have to actually see a gay rights bill pass in one state before I'll believe there is majority acceptance nationwide.
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  2. #42
    @.~*virinaĉo*~.@ Totenkindly's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    Yeah I remember all that. I also remember that people showed up to vote for Obama in droves at the same time. Every liberal and his cousin was at the polls that day. This bill still didn't pass, and this was in California. To me gay rights still has a long way to go. Gay rights hasn't had a vote yet go its way in any state that I'm aware of.

    Now I admit all that can change. But a poll that says a majority support gay rights seems a little disingenuous to me. Where is this majority? They sure aren't voting if they are out there. Or is it a gay version of the Bradley Effect?

    I don't know. Maybe what this poll says is that it's time to try another bill in a blue state like California or New Jersey or someplace like that. Personally, I have to actually see a gay rights bill pass in one state before I'll believe there is majority acceptance nationwide.
    I thought there were already gay rights and same-sex acceptance marriage bills passed in multiple states... so I'm a little confused as to what you mean.
    (And ENDA would have been passed in the last attempt, if not for trans inclusions, so...?) The current administration refused to support DOMA because it believes it's unconstitutional, so while we had no national budget in place, Republicans were scrambling to find money to defend it. You can see things crumbling, little bit by little bit.

    Note that in the poll (as the article said), the people most likely to vote for permitting same-sex marriages are young women, the most likely to vote against are older men. Which one of those groups comprises a large majority of our current legislative bodies? It doesn't really matter what the votes want; such legislation for or against is driven in our political system on the sponsorship and committee levels, which can get even supported bills dumped out in the cold by manipulating the process. It's just how the game is played.

    You can remain skeptical if you want. Ten years from now, let's have another talk.
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  3. #43
    Vaguely Precise Seymour's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    Yeah I remember all that. I also remember that people showed up to vote for Obama in droves at the same time. Every liberal and his cousin was at the polls that day. This bill still didn't pass, and this was in California. To me gay rights still has a long way to go. Gay rights hasn't had a vote yet go its way in any state that I'm aware of.
    Actually Prop 8 did pass, since it was the measure that rescinded gay marriage rights in California (a nitpick, I admit). Still, you are correct that gay marriage has yet to win a popular vote in any state. Gay marriage has been enacted either by state legislatures, or by the courts.

    Whether gay marriage has failed popular election is because of the demographics of who tends to vote (for example not a single state shows support for gay marriage greater than 35% amongst those 64 and older), or a "Bradley Effect" (as you mention below) is unclear. You'll also note the story about whether Obama supporters voted for Prop 8 is more complex than one might think... with new voters who supported Obama not voting for gay marriage at the same rate as regular voters. Prop 8 would have failed if they had.


    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    Now I admit all that can change. But a poll that says a majority support gay rights seems a little disingenuous to me. Where is this majority? They sure aren't voting if they are out there. Or is it a gay version of the Bradley Effect?
    The same national poll has been given at regular intervals, and you can see the tipping point is extremely recent:



    Whether it's just a blip or whether the tend towards acceptance continues remains to be seen.

    Quote Originally Posted by The_Liquid_Laser View Post
    I don't know. Maybe what this poll says is that it's time to try another bill in a blue state like California or New Jersey or someplace like that. Personally, I have to actually see a gay rights bill pass in one state before I'll believe there is majority acceptance nationwide.
    Also keep in mind that a number of polls have, in the past, shown a "passion gap" between supporters and opponents of gay marriage. There tended to be more people who care passionately who were opposed to it than were in support of it. A number of gay marriage supporters are of the "seems okay-ish to me, doesn't affect my life" ilk, while many gay marriage opponents are of the "gay marriage will destroy my religious freedom and the American/Christian way of life" category.

    Conservatives in the US tend, on the whole, to be better organized than liberals. In the last couple of decades, they have also managed to leverage the support of some denominations to get the word out for political causes. In the Church of Christ of my childhood, discussing political matters in church was considered very tacky at best (even though it was a overwhelmingly conservative congregation).

    It's also interesting to note that US Catholics tend to be more supportive of gay marriage than protestants, given the official stance of the Catholic Church.

  4. #44
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    It's good to know that support for same sex marriage is increasing to the point where the bulk of society will eventually accept it and legalize it. Although I am only happy for this as a means to an ends; that regardless of how, gays marriage will become legal. The fact that legalizing gay marriage is dependent on the will of the masses via a voting system is a disgusting mockery of human rights and an example of democracy at its worst. It doesn't matter if a majority of the United States citizens dislike gay marriage and want it banned, their personal opinion should not triumph against equal freedoms for others. For example, back in the 60's did everyone go to the polls and vote on whether or not African Americans should have rights? No. African Americans demanded their rights as human beings and eventually got them through sheer force of will (among other factors of course). Gay marriage should be the same; the legalization of gay marriage should not have ot wait on the will of the masses, rather it should be legalized by those in government power based on rightfully giving people equality. Either that, or marriage should be banned entirely.

  5. #45
    Resident Apple Hoarder Kriash's Avatar
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    I know this is a good thing, I just wish the process was faster. I'm an impatient person.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kriash View Post
    I know this is a good thing, I just wish the process was faster. I'm an impatient person.
    I sympathize for ya, you nor anyone else should have to wait until a majority of the masses are ready for same-sex marriage.

  7. #47
    Senior Member esidebill's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Savage Idealist View Post
    I sympathize for ya, you nor anyone else should have to wait until a majority of the masses are ready for same-sex marriage.
    It's hard to rush when most people seem to get disturbed over anything publicly gay. Hide the children!

  8. #48
    Resident Apple Hoarder Kriash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by esidebill View Post
    It's hard to rush when most people seem to get disturbed over anything publicly gay. Hide the children!
    I know... I just don't understand it. My whole family is like that. I actually got in trouble for saying gay in my aunt's house once. She said I was corrupting her children.

  9. #49
    The Eighth Colour Octarine's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Seymour View Post
    Whether it's just a blip or whether the tend towards acceptance continues remains to be seen.
    Right, because it could reflect a change in participation of particular groups in such opinion polls, rather than a societal change in perception.

  10. #50
    Vaguely Precise Seymour's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Architectonic View Post
    Right, because it could reflect a change in participation of particular groups in such opinion polls, rather than a societal change in perception.
    Well, there have been at least four credible polls in a row (done by various entities) showing majority support for gay marriage, where previous polls by those same organizations had not. Those polls typically cover a number of topics, and are not gay marriage specific. So, it seems unlikely that a demographic that happens to not support gay marriage would suddenly opt out and stop answering polling questions.

    It seems a more likely explanation that either opinions have changed, or the perception of what constitutes an acceptable opinion has changed, hence causing a Bradley Effect scenario where people's votes might not match their poll answers.

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