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View Poll Results: I think the US economy is...

Voters
23. You may not vote on this poll
  • Going strong. (I've been living in a cave the last few months)

    0 0%
  • Just going through a slow down.

    5 21.74%
  • Is in a recession.

    13 56.52%
  • Is heading toward collapse/depression.

    4 17.39%
  • It's the end! Run to Canada or Mexico while you can!

    1 4.35%
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Results 21 to 25 of 25

  1. #21
    RDF
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    Technically, I believe that we're currently in a slowdown. That is, the U.S. economy is still growing overall, but much more slowly than previously. But if you split the country into regions, some regions are probably in recession while some are still growing fairly decently.

    Most government authorities and financial markets are expecting a mild recession later this year. It could well get worse than that, but no one expects anything worse than a moderate-to-deep recession in the U.S. in a worst-case scenario (other countries could be hit worse).

    The following is a partial cross-post from the "Economic Stimulus..." thread. See that thread for the full version of the post. (The following material represents about 1/3 of the total post.)

    Quote Originally Posted by FineLine View Post
    [...] We still have to see how far this current economic crisis (the sub-prime mortgage crisis) will spread through the economy. But at this point, no one is predicting anything really bad. Most people figure a mild recession (on the order of 1972 or 1991) or a deeper recession (on the order of 76 or 81). But those are entirely survivable--I remember them well. And we've had banking crises before--the savings-and-loan crisis that led to the recession of 1991.

    Meantime, as I said above, governments have had a healthy decade or so to bring their public debt down to reasonable levels. So governments are in pretty good shape to weather even a pretty bad economic crisis. So at this point, anyway, very few people are worrying about any kind of big economic collapse. Again, typical predictions are for a mild recession (most likely scenario) or a deeper recession (in a worst-case scenario).

    Again, I'm not an economist. But I follow the news, and what I've described above is pretty much the consensus in the financial markets and government branches.

    Also, I've been through a few old-style recessions myself. They get kind of nasty, but they only last about a year typically, and then things bounce back.

    By the way, the best way to measure the depth of a recession is probably by the unemployment rate, because that's where people feel the pain--when the main wage-earner can't find a job. Here are some figures for comparison:

    Unemployment rate

    Healthy economy - 4 percent to 4.5 percent
    Current U.S. unemployment rate - 4.8 percent
    72 recession - 6 percent
    91 recession - 7.5 percent
    76 recession - 8.5 percent
    81 recession - 10 percent
    Great Depression - 25 percent

    Unemployment - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

  2. #22
    Senior Member INTJMom's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by FineLine View Post
    Technically, I believe that we're currently in a slowdown. That is, the U.S. economy is still growing overall, but much more slowly than previously. ...

    Unemployment rate

    Healthy economy - 4 percent to 4.5 percent
    Current U.S. unemployment rate - 4.8 percent
    72 recession - 6 percent
    91 recession - 7.5 percent
    76 recession - 8.5 percent
    81 recession - 10 percent
    Great Depression - 25 percent
    Thanks for those great stats!

    And for the encouragement.

  3. #23
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    Quote Originally Posted by INTJMom View Post
    Thanks for those great stats!

    And for the encouragement.
    You're welcome, INTJMom. Glad to help!

  4. #24
    Member GruffyBear's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by pure_mercury View Post
    The stock market has never been down for a 10-year period.
    The U.S. Stock Market did not recover to its 1929 levels until 1956. Japanese investors are still waiting for the Nikkei average to return to its 1989 highs.

  5. #25
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by GruffyBear View Post
    The U.S. Stock Market did not recover to its 1929 levels until 1956. Japanese investors are still waiting for the Nikkei average to return to its 1989 highs.
    The raw Dow Jones Industrials Average certainly did (although 1923-1933 was about even, perhaps slightly negative), but I know what you mean. Adjusted historically, the period of the bubble/crash of the late-'20s and the ensuing Depression was pretty brutal, and the country did not recover until World War II and after. Still, investing a good deal of my money into stocks and bonds in my 20s and 30s is going to be a good idea. Assuming I make it into my 60s, I will be damned if I rely on Social Security checks to get by. That is sheer lunacy.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

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