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Thread: The BRIC

  1. #1
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    Default The BRIC

    This concept fascinates me - Brazil, China, India, and Russia having more economic power in 2050 than the current first world nations.

    I know China is a major player, and just did a bunch of reading into Russian economic policy...and I want to know what other people have to say about this.

    Discuss the developing world eclipsing the developed world.

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    Yoo hoo! Has anyone heard of the BRIC?

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    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Russia will only remain relevant in the near future due to its energy resources and nuclear arsenal; its in the process of a demographic death-spiral that will have huge future repurcussions even if they somehow manage to fix things overnight. China and India (and Brazil, to a lesser extent) will greatly increase in power and influence in the medium term (barring some rather severe fuck-ups on their part). I don't see a lot of potential for China and India to unite against the West; they will compete against each other more than against North America or Europe. Brazil will probably continue to diplomatically ally with China and (softly) against the United States for the foreseable future, as we are their most salient competitor for influence in Latin America.

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    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Marmie Dearest View Post
    This concept fascinates me - Brazil, China, India, and Russia having more economic power in 2050 than the current first world nations.

    I know China is a major player, and just did a bunch of reading into Russian economic policy...and I want to know what other people have to say about this.

    Discuss the developing world eclipsing the developed world.


    In my opinion there simply is no enough resources for these 4 powers to do what they want to do. Plus each has some serious problems on its own.
    So here is a simplistic overview of what I think.


    China

    Is doing very very well if you look at typical capitalistic ways and definitions of defining growth. (growth of GDP, growth of industrial production, strong growth of exports)

    But on the other hand China's environmental policies are basically unexistant. So as the times goes by they will have less and less food and drinkable water. (and huge population) Another problem is that they will probably have a serious problem when it comes to powering up their country if they trully become developed as some people think.

    diagnosis: Strong but very unstable growth


    India

    Has pretty much the same problems as China. The only differance is that they seem to be about 5 years behind China in a resource consumption rate. Plus they have a overpopulation problem. As far as I know India has about 1 150 000 000 people. However about 600 000 000 of them are under 20 years old. So when that 600 million people start to reproduce there are good odds that the country will find itself in a serious problem. (especially since their religion is pretty sexually liberal)


    diagnosis: major resource crisis are quite likely.


    Russia

    Probably has the best odds to succeed.
    However as far as I know most of their economy is made out of exporting raw materials and energy (oil and gas). However they will probably pump out most of their fossil fuels in the next 20 years. So when they export their main ace the growth will probably stop because of very simple trick. If you export most of the energy to gain cash you will not have enough energy to create your own strong industry. Unless of course they manage to invent something completely new that will maintain their progress.


    Plus Russia has serious problems with corruption, health care, general social climate... etc.


    diagnosis: In the end it will all pretty much come down to all of nothing.




    Brazil: Probably the weakest of the four and far away frow the other three.
    However it has the potential to develop pretty much independantly from other three. The only real problems that I see is pretty high crime rate and isolation/distance from center of focus as well as the distance from most of major fossil fuel reserves. Plus there is the lack of military experiance and strength.
    However the land is pretty big, fertile and rich with mineral wealth.



    diagnosis: The most unpredictable from all four. So basically most of it comes down to the quality of their leadership and ability to power up the country that is developing into a major power.



    So as you can see the energy will probably be a major factor of how all of this will this end. (developed world included)

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    Queen hunter Virtual ghost's Avatar
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    Thread kill ?

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    nee andante bechimo's Avatar
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    They're now BRICS.

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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    Russia will only remain relevant in the near future due to its energy resources and nuclear arsenal; its in the process of a demographic death-spiral that will have huge future repurcussions even if they somehow manage to fix things overnight. China and India (and Brazil, to a lesser extent) will greatly increase in power and influence in the medium term (barring some rather severe fuck-ups on their part). I don't see a lot of potential for China and India to unite against the West; they will compete against each other more than against North America or Europe. Brazil will probably continue to diplomatically ally with China and (softly) against the United States for the foreseable future, as we are their most salient competitor for influence in Latin America.
    Well China have messed with their demographics through the one child policy and unintentional/cultural favouring of males, what did the Russians do to fuck themselves up demographically?

    The Chinese have shown their willingness to compete with the UK in its worst moments at least, they tried hard to entice banks and investment firms, its part of the reason which the prospect of tax rises were totally off the cards despite the Labour government rigging such a disaster in public finances to try and compell even a slight rise which would still be beneath the European average.

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    Senior Member lowtech redneck's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Lark View Post
    Well China have messed with their demographics through the one child policy and unintentional/cultural favouring of males, what did the Russians do to fuck themselves up demographically?
    China's short-sightedness won't catch up with them for awhile, though they would be wise to dispense with the one-child policy at this point. Russia, in a nutshell, has had extreme sub-replacement fertility levels for more than a generation while huge numbers of their adult males are dying off by their fifties. Their demographic situation is already severe, and its going to get worse in the near future. Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe are also in trouble, though the full ramifications of their problems have been postponed by the fact that their wokers are staying alive until retirement (which will create demographic problems of a different kind in the near future).

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    Quote Originally Posted by lowtech redneck View Post
    China's short-sightedness won't catch up with them for awhile, though they would be wise to dispense with the one-child policy at this point. Russia, in a nutshell, has had extreme sub-replacement fertility levels for more than a generation while huge numbers of their adult males are dying off by their fifties. Their demographic situation is already severe, and its going to get worse in the near future. Central, Eastern, and Southern Europe are also in trouble, though the full ramifications of their problems have been postponed by the fact that their wokers are staying alive until retirement (which will create demographic problems of a different kind in the near future).
    Are you talking about the retirement and pensions time bomb? Britain and Ireland have some problems with that, in the UK the pension bill is set to equal all other government spending altogether in a few years, while that might seem like a problem for most of the conservative and free market liberals its good news because they original only envisaged the welfare state to be pensions and would like a hard choice between pensions and other spending because they could cut back the welfare state they dont like.

    What's the problem in central and southern europe? Is it an aging population too? I didnt think the eastern european nations had a problem with that, not the polish at least, a lot of the european nations which are pretty RC still have good birth rates.

    I'm actually happy to hear about Russia, its good to know that the crimes or errors of totalitarianism will have some impact after the fact, if its clear that state social engineering and controlling patterns damage the survival prospects of the nation itself perhaps there'll be less of it in the future.

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    The West has an aging population and a low birth rate. There will definitely be a power as well as a demographic shift in the near future.

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