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  1. #31
    Order Now! pure_mercury's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    You're up early Merc

    The Lib Dems are a one trick pony: without changing the voting system to PR their 25% of the vote will never translate into more than a few dozen seats. The last thing the Tories want is PR; but Labour might do a deal. It's unlikely that the Tories would give the Lib Dems the kind of concrete assurances on amending the voting system they want and a few seats in a Tory cabinet is not likely to cut the mustard.

    More likely the Tories will try to horse trade with the smaller parties. The problem is few of the smaller parties (apart from the DUP in Ulster) want any dealings with the them. It looks unlikely that the Welsh and Scottish nationalist would make deals with the old enemy; more likely that the Tories will hold out for a new election.

    Even with a few dozen seats less than the Tories, Labour look more amicable to horse trading with the nationalists and cobbling together an unlikely and volatile majority. Fun times ahead.

    My bet is that the Tories will regroup and try later.

    Well, at least there is a liberal third party still in existence. There is a United Kingdom Libertarian Party now, but they seem to be even nuttier than the LP in the States. If I were voting in the UK, I'd want to vote for either a socially liberal Tory or fiscally conservative Lib Dem, depending on the individual.
    Who wants to try a bottle of merc's "Extroversion Olive Oil?"

  2. #32
    Supreme High Commander Andy's Avatar
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    I was hoping for mass rioting followed by civil war, but I guess I will have to be patient. It's begining to look like we will have to wait another year to see if anything really changes.

  3. #33
    psicobolche tcda's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy View Post
    I was hoping for mass rioting followed by civil war,
    You and me both

    Whoever wins will be a very weak governmnet with no popular mandate to carry out the massive cuts to public services which the "markets" demand.

    The Tories arrogantly claim that they have some kind of natural right to form a government, but they ignore that out of those 64% who voted against them, most viscerally hate them - there is no "broad consensus" like there was under Blair.
    "Of course we spent our money in the good times. That's what you're supposed to do in good times! You can't save money in the good times. Then they wouldn't be good times, they'd be 'preparation for the bad times' times."

    "Every country in the world owes money. Everyone. So heere's what I dont get: who do they all owe it to, and why don't we just kill the bastard and relax?"

    -Tommy Tiernan, Irish comedian.

  4. #34
    Senior Member Survive & Stay Free's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Andy View Post
    I was hoping for mass rioting followed by civil war, but I guess I will have to be patient. It's begining to look like we will have to wait another year to see if anything really changes.
    When I was a kid I used to think like that but I got a bad leg now, I'm a couple of stone over weight and I prefer reading.

  5. #35
    Reason vs Being ragashree's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    You're up early Merc

    The Lib Dems are a one trick pony: without changing the voting system to PR their 25% of the vote will never translate into more than a few dozen seats. The last thing the Tories want is PR; but Labour might do a deal. It's unlikely that the Tories would give the Lib Dems the kind of concrete assurances on amending the voting system they want and a few seats in a Tory cabinet is not likely to cut the mustard.

    More likely the Tories will try to horse trade with the smaller parties. The problem is few of the smaller parties (apart from the DUP in Ulster) want any dealings with the them. It looks unlikely that the Welsh and Scottish nationalist would make deals with the old enemy; more likely that the Tories will hold out for a new election.

    Even with a few dozen seats less than the Tories, Labour look more amicable to horse trading with the nationalists and cobbling together an unlikely and volatile majority. Fun times ahead.

    My bet is that the Tories will regroup and try later.
    This analysis sounds about right. No one but the Dup have the faintest interest in associating with the Tories at the moment, their extraordinary arrogance and sense of entitlement hasn't helped win them any political friends recently. Even the DUP are scarcely natural allies in the sense of the old weakened UUP, and probably wouldn't join them without significant concessions. Things could get pretty murky actually, as I can see the prospect of serious DUP influence in national government as something that might just push Sinn Fein and their own handful of abstentionist Mps into breaking their longstanding Westminster boycott just to block them. Either that or further trouble could brew in NI, which is in no-one's interest and would damage any sitting government's credibility. I really don't think the DUP could help the Conservatives much even if they did try to make a deal.

    I find it pretty amazing the Tories have done as well as they have given the lack of substance or sincerity in most of their recent pronouncements, and considering how many people (as Tcda pointed out) really, really, dislike and distrust them. I suspect they're in a no win situation here despite being the largest party, and if they aren't prepared to make serious concessions to someone to form an effective government they will probably lose out next time round, so holding out isn't going to really help them either. It's incumbent on the largest party to form a government if they can, and they're going to take most of the blame if they fail to do so. Labour can always blame the numbers, but the sheer unpopularity of the Conservatives (this election was always more about disillusionment with Labour than a surge in Conservative support) is just going to be highlighted if they can't get anyone to work with them. The nationalists are a fairly minor factor with their small number of Westminster seats, but I don't see them giving the Conservatives the time of day at the moment. Labour are the ones who made some recent devolutionary concessions, the Conservatives have never supported the principle and are unlikely to fool anyone into thinking they do now.

    The economy's unlikely to improve with the markets in a panic and no-one taking effective steps to fix anything, and if the situation worsens people are likely to return to Labour as the safer option. The LibDems are acting in their own long-term interests in holding out for PR and really have nothing to lose even if it's not a vote winner. They're unlikely to massively lose support either and may be in a better position to force a coalition on a weak and grateful Labour at the next election on whatever terms they wish.
    Look into my avatar. Look deep into my avatar...

  6. #36
    Senior Member tinkerbell's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bananatrombones View Post
    You're up early Merc

    The Lib Dems are a one trick pony: without changing the voting system to PR their 25% of the vote will never translate into more than a few dozen seats. The last thing the Tories want is PR; but Labour might do a deal. It's unlikely that the Tories would give the Lib Dems the kind of concrete assurances on amending the voting system they want and a few seats in a Tory cabinet is not likely to cut the mustard.

    More likely the Tories will try to horse trade with the smaller parties. The problem is few of the smaller parties (apart from the DUP in Ulster) want any dealings with the them. It looks unlikely that the Welsh and Scottish nationalist would make deals with the old enemy; more likely that the Tories will hold out for a new election.

    Even with a few dozen seats less than the Tories, Labour look more amicable to horse trading with the nationalists and cobbling together an unlikely and volatile majority. Fun times ahead.

    My bet is that the Tories will regroup and try later.
    Yea Ban, I work at around 2.30, by 3.30 I had the TV on, and watched stuff come in....

    I agree that te lost likely/harmoneous is Lab/Lib, but brown would need to go, and they would need to gaurantee a referendum. Tories will never agree to a referendum (they suggested a review not a gaurantee). Sounds liek Tory back benchers would kick off if cameron over promises...

    I guess it could be 10 days before it's all clear.

    So ought we to run a book on how long it take to get us into a re-election? it will never survive

  7. #37
    Senior Member matmos's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinkerbell View Post
    Yea Ban, I work at around 2.30, by 3.30 I had the TV on, and watched stuff come in....

    I agree that te lost likely/harmoneous is Lab/Lib, but brown would need to go, and they would need to gaurantee a referendum. Tories will never agree to a referendum (they suggested a review not a gaurantee). Sounds liek Tory back benchers would kick off if cameron over promises...

    I guess it could be 10 days before it's all clear.

    So ought we to run a book on how long it take to get us into a re-election? it will never survive
    My bet: Mandelson will create a scenario where Brown has to go; Labour will change leaders (probably Johnson, maybe Milliband or Straw) and do a deal with Lib Dems, SNP & PC & Brighton's Green lady, on condition of a referendum on electoral reform; PR won't be on the table, as such, but some modified version to keep out the loonies like the BNP. FWIW, I believe Cameron's days are numbered. His "moral victory" already looks very Pyrrhic.


  8. #38
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    Quote Originally Posted by pure_mercury View Post
    There have been several U.S. presidents voted out after one term in office.
    The two termers are always a mistake.

  9. #39
    The Unwieldy Clawed One Falcarius's Avatar
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    It seems like there is going to be one of three outcomes:

    • An 'unofficial' pact between the Tories and the Liberal, where the Liberals only agree to support the Tories if the prospect of a vote of no confidence arises over some specified time (most likely of one or two years) in order to secure the confidence of the financial market.


    • Tory minority government, which would probably last a few years at the very most without the need of an election.


    • An 'official' pact where the Liberal support the Tories in exchange for a few cabinet positions, presumably Vince Cable as Chancellor of the Exchequer and Nick Clegg as Secretary of State for Justice.




    Each of the three have benefits and disadvantages. Falcarius' heart tells him it would be better for an official Liberal-Tory pact as described above, mostly because the thought of Mr Gideon Osborne as Chancellor of the Exchequer is more than a little scary. Do people seriously think he could run a single McDonalds fast food restaurant let alone the most important financial centre in the world and one of the world's most globalised countries? But, Falcarius' head tells him it is most probably going to be an 'unofficial' pact between the Tories and the Liberals until the economy is stabilised. The Liberals did not win anything like the number of member of parliaments the option polls thought they would, so they can't exactly play Labour and Conservatives off each other in order to gain electoral reform.
    Quote Originally Posted by Thalassa View Post
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  10. #40
    Reason vs Being ragashree's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by tinkerbell View Post
    I agree that te lost likely/harmoneous is Lab/Lib, but brown would need to go, and they would need to gaurantee a referendum. Tories will never agree to a referendum (they suggested a review not a gaurantee). Sounds liek Tory back benchers would kick off if cameron over promises...
    It's a transparantly pathetic offer with no substance to it at all, but I'm not surprised to see it coming from the Tories They know perfectly well that PR will make it impossible for them to get an overall majority for the forseeable future, and probably from governing again while they persist with their current approach and set of policies. This is in fact fair enough when they are so out of tune with the majority sentiment in this country and incapable of coming close to winning the popular vote, though it doesn't fit well with their longstanding and arrogant assumption that they are the natural party of government. I'm not surprised that they're trying so hard to defend the existing system, it benefits them even more than it does Labour. The LibDems, however, are probably not going to be stupid enough to accept such an empty offer, and if that's the best the Conservatives can come up with they may just end up digging their own political grave anyway.

    It might not do the country much good either at the moment, but the Conservatives have probably put themselves in the worst possible position for the future of their party by failing to truly win over the people, and this election, when so much was in their favour. If that proves to be the case some of us won't be shedding too many tears for them. I certainly won't
    Look into my avatar. Look deep into my avatar...

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